Really Early MLB Projections have Red Sox, Phillies as favorites

It is a slow week transaction and rumor wise so let's spice things up by taking a look at some far too early projections of the final standings of 2011. The early returns show that the defending champion Giants have a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Replacement Level Yankees using the Cairo projection system that is there creation along with the MLB Depth Charts simulated the 2011 season 10,000 times the NL West looks like a crap shoot with Colorado the early favorites followed by the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.

Here is the full standings:

Date	12/28/2010
Iterations	10000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	98.1	63.9	856	690	54.6%	15.6%	70.2%	9.1	38	-54
Yankees	89.1	72.9	835	740	23.2%	21.7%	44.9%	-5.9	-24	47
Rays	87.1	74.9	707	640	17.9%	18.7%	36.6%	-8.9	-95	-9
Blue Jays	74.1	87.9	693	737	2.6%	5.8%	8.4%	-10.9	-62	9
Orioles	70.1	91.9	723	813	1.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.1	110	28
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	752	715	33.3%	6.2%	39.5%	-8.3	-29	44
White Sox	84.5	77.5	735	711	28.4%	6.2%	34.5%	-3.5	-17	7
Tigers	84.0	78.0	727	712	27.5%	4.6%	32.0%	3.0	-24	-31
Indians	73.9	88.1	728	802	8.2%	2.7%	10.8%	4.9	82	50
Royals	66.9	95.1	678	815	2.8%	1.1%	3.9%	-0.1	2	-30
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.2	72.8	746	673	50.1%	4.5%	54.6%	-0.8	-41	-14
Athletics	82.1	79.9	678	667	26.1%	4.3%	30.4%	1.1	15	41
Angels	77.9	84.1	665	690	15.5%	3.2%	18.7%	-2.1	-16	-12
Mariners	72.2	89.8	635	703	8.4%	2.5%	10.9%	11.2	122	5
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	96.1	65.9	754	618	54.5%	11.0%	65.5%	-0.9	-18	-22
Braves	88.5	73.5	754	690	26.6%	13.3%	39.9%	-2.5	16	61
Mets	76.6	85.4	675	702	7.1%	4.5%	11.6%	-2.4	19	50
Marlins	77.3	84.7	679	708	8.7%	5.0%	13.7%	-2.7	-40	-9
Nationals	72.4	89.6	659	733	3.2%	2.0%	5.2%	13.4	-51	-141
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	90.2	71.8	746	676	35.0%	12.0%	47.0%	4.2	10	35
Brewers	87.2	74.8	698	650	27.9%	8.9%	36.7%	10.2	-52	-154
Reds	85.5	76.5	723	689	23.5%	8.2%	31.7%	-5.5	-67	4
Cubs	79.3	82.7	742	761	10.5%	6.3%	16.8%	4.3	57	-6
Pirates	67.7	94.3	671	808	2.1%	1.2%	3.3%	-6.3	28	38
Astros	65.8	96.2	604	732	1.1%	1.0%	2.1%	3.8	-32	-36
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rockies	85.9	76.1	768	732	31.7%	5.9%	37.6%	2.9	-2	15
Giants	84.2	77.8	699	667	24.1%	6.6%	30.6%	-7.8	2	84
Dodgers	83.3	78.7	677	659	20.3%	7.2%	27.5%	3.3	10	-33
Padres	81.2	80.8	647	652	17.7%	5.0%	22.6%	-8.8	-18	71
Diamondbacks	73.8	88.2	690	757	6.4%	1.9%	8.3%	3.8	-30	-25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The calendar has not flipped to 2011, rosters are not set, there are still free agents to sign, pitchers and catchers are yet to report but it is never too early to think about the pennant race.

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