Does the Lineup Matter?

I am no different then the next guy. When Bruce Bochy puts out his lineup everyday there is usually something in it to complain about.

However does the makeup of a lineup matter all that much?

In the grand scheme of things for most teams there is not a huge difference in the number of runs scored between an optimal lineup and one that follows the more traditional form for baseball. It is on the magnitude of only about 1-2 wins or 10-25 runs per season, nothing to sneeze at but when compared to other things like roster construction it is pretty small.

However the 2010 Giants are not typical, every run matters and the team lacks true power hitters that can add runs in the form of a 3 run homer. This team scores runs by going base to base and lineup construction probably matters more here then in other situations. The lineup for this team could make the difference between 90 wins and 86 wins and another October watching from home.

The traditional baseball manager creates his lineup following this usual pattern: he has some fast guys on top of the lineup, a good situational hitter up second that can hit behind runners or bunt them over, then you put your best hitter third, then your masher run producer fourth to give protection and drive in runs, the 5 and 6 guys should be guys with pop that can drive in some runs and then it is followed by your two weakest position players 7 and 8 and finally your pitcher.

Bruce Bochy has followed that pattern for the better part of the season and his stint as a manager in the Major Leagues. The current lineup of Torres, Sanchez, Sandoval, Huff, Uribe, Molina, Posey, Rowand, and Pitcher projects over the whole season to be at about 4.447 per game or 720 runs over the whole season. Currently the Giants have scored 248 runs in 59 games for a average production of 4.2 runs per game.

So what is optimal?

The optimal lineup is based on using regression analysis to determine the weights to place on how much power a player has (SLG) and the players ability to get on base (OBP). An in depth look at this and the methodology can be found in the original wok done by Cyril Morong at Beyond the Boxscore.

Below is the table that shows the coefficients for both OBP and SLG based on the order in the lineup. On base percentage is most important for the lead off hitter and least important for the number 8 hitter. Slugging is weighted most heavily for the clean up hitter and is surprisingly low for the number 3 hitter.

For the Giants a more optimal lineup would be the following:

This lineup takes numbers from the Zips Update projections and projects to 4.857 runs per game:

1- Buster Posey (C) (.297/.368/.437)

2- Aubrey Huff (1B) (.282/.360/.463)

3- Freddy Sanchez (2B) (.309/.360/.418)

4- Pablo Sandoval (3B) (.299/.348/.468)

5- Andres Torres (CF) (.276/.353/.443)

6- Juan Uribe (SS) (.274/.326/.457)

7- Nate Schierholtz (RF) (.286/.344/.429)

8- Pitcher (.150/.180/.160)

9- Pat Burrell (LF) (.250/.360/.420) (note: this is my assumption on what his numbers could be over the course of a full season with full playing time)

This is unlikely to happen. I doubt that we see Bochy take out both Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina. So here is one that is not quite as good but still significantly better then the current one.

1- Buster Posey (C) (.297/.368/.437)

2- Aubrey Huff (1B) (.282/.360/.463)

3- Freddy Sanchez (2B) (.309/.360/.418)

4- Pablo Sandoval (3B) (.299/.348/.468)

5- Andres Torres (LF) (.276/.353/.443)

6- Juan Uribe (SS) (.274/.326/.457)

7- Aaron Rowand (CF) (.250/.299/.413)

8- Pitcher (.150/.180/.160)

9- Nate Schierholtz (RF) (.286/.344/.429)

This lineup brings us to a 4.775 runs per game level, not quite as good but still much better then the 4.447 our current lineup does.

The current lineup is hurting the team, this is a team that every single run that scores means something. Runs are a premium and if an unconventional lineup can mean the difference of between 42 and 34 runs (500 or 492 vs 458) over the last 103 games it makes sense to go after it.

Those runs could be the difference between 3-4 wins and could cost the team a chance at going to the playoffs.

Bruce Bochy it is time to think outside the box a little bit.