The Phillies are a tough match-up but with a lineup that is missing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard they have gotten off to a slow start offensively. So maybe the Giants are going to catch a bit of a break against a very tough team.
Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point I think May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.
So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:
Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
Madison Bumgarner vs. Joe Blanton
Matt Cain (not announced yet but assumed) vs. Cliff Lee
Odds:
|
Giants
|
Phillies
|
Total Runs
|
|
|
Game 1
|
52%
|
48%
|
6.0
|
|
Game 2
|
58%
|
42%
|
6.7
|
|
Game 3
|
49%
|
51%
|
5.8
|
|
Sweep
|
15%
|
10%
|
|
|
2 out 3
|
40%
|
35%
|
|
|
1 out 3
|
35%
|
40%
|
|
|
0 out 3
|
10%
|
15%
|
|
|
Win Series
|
54%
|
46%
|
|
|
Lose Series
|
46%
|
54%
|
The Giants are slight favorites but really only on the strength of being the home team. On a neutral site the Phillies would actually be favored so this should be a very even match-up on paper. In addition this is the lowest total runs projections I have seen in a while, I guess that's what happens when you get a couple of great rotations together.
Predicting over under: My results continue to mirror the teams as I went 2-1 against the over/under to improve my record to 4-5 on the season. Tonight's over/under is set at 6 which is exactly what I have projected so I guess I am sitting out tonight's game, my heart is saying take the over with Lincecum's struggles but it is hard to bet on Lincecum not coming out of his funk eventually.
Season record 4-5
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