Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Mets

The Giants are pretty much back on track after getting swept to start the season, they have series wins in the last three that they have played and the pitching staff which had let them down has been the strength of the team (with the notable exception of Tim Lincecum). The bats have cooled down a bit but the team is still averaging over 4 runs a game on the season.

Now the Giants embark on their first east coast road trip with a four game series in New York and then a stop in Cincinnati for three more. Hopefully they can keep up their winning ways and come back with a winning record.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Jon Niese vs. Barry Zito

Mike Pelfrey vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Dillon Gee vs. Tim Lincecum

Johan Santana vs. Madison Bumgarner

Odds:

	Mets	Giants	Total Runs
Game 1	50%	50%	7.3
Game 2	51%	49%	7.1
Game 3	36%	64%	6.7
Game 4	49%	51%	6.3
Sweep	4.5%	8.0%
3 of 4	21.5%	28.5%
Split	37.5%	37.5%
1 of 4	28.5%	21.5%
0 of 4	8.0%	4.5%
Win Series	26%	37%
Split	37%	37%
Lose Series	37%	26%

  

Predicting over under: Last series I only was able to take the over under on two games because my Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay projection was exactly what the spread was. I did post here that if I was the person making the bet that I would have taken the over and it would have been the correct choice, but for the sake of this experiment I won't count that as a correct guess (unless things get really ugly down the road and I need this to help save some face).

Season record 5-6.

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