Brian Wilson non tendered

As expected Brian Wilson was not tendered a contract at tonight's deadline. He is a free agent.

It's possible he could still come back to the Giants but the reports seemed to indicate the team and Wilson were quite far apart on how much they valued the relief pitcher's services.

Coming off his second Tommy John Surgery it makes sense that the Giants would be cautious. If some other team wants to take on that risk, well best of luck.

Regardless of what you think of the character he became, we will always have 2010 to remember.

Posey Wins MVP in Internet Baseball Awards Voting

The MVP awards voted on by the Baseball Writers of America is announced Thursday but in the meantime Baseball Prospectus has announced the results of the Internet Baseball Awards Voting.

The award for Most Valuable Player was given to Buster Posey who beat out Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen by a fairly sizable manner.

Hopefully that is a sign of good news for Posey.

In other voting Bruce Bochy came in third place for Manager of the Year, Matt Cain came in 6th place, Madison Bumgarner 14th place and Sergio Romo 36th place for Cy Young and Hector Sanchez came in 50th place in the Rookie of the Year vote.

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Baseball Prospectus Profiles Giants CF Prospect Gary Brown

Gary Brown is one of the Giants top prospects, and is the potential center fielder of the future. After destroying pitching in High A San Jose, he ran into a bit of a wall in AA Richmond. 

This morning Baseball Prospectus has him as their prospect profile (for free!). It's a nice little glimpse into what has been going on with him if you haven't been following his goings on very closely.

Here is the introduction:

Fifteen months ago Gary Brown was viewed by many as an elite prospect, destined to lose Gold Gloves to inferior defenders and lead the Giants to the Promised Land. People were amazed that 23 players were selected before Brown in the 2010 draft. When teams would inquire on Brown, the Giants would show reluctance to part with him to shore up their club in the short term. Many expected him to make it to the majors quickly and become the team’s center fielder of both the present and future. 

#Mets had asked #SFGiants for RHP Wheeler or OF Brown. Not getting Wheeler. We'll see on Brown.#tradedeadline #MLB

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2011

 Now, it looks like Brown is going to forever be remembered as the guy the Giants kept instead of Zack Wheeler, even though it’s unclear how exactly the Mets’ and Giants’negotiations went in the Carlos Beltran trade. After two years of professional baseball, Brown has become yet another “if he can hit…” prospect. What was once viewed as a special talent is now a mysterious talent. There are various opinions out there on the Cal State Fullerton product. If you believe in the hit tool, you think he’s going to be a great player. If you don’t, you think he’s a fourth outfielder. If you’re not certain, you’re in the majority.

I recommend reading the whole thing.

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Giants' Free Agents Expected Pay Days

Over at Fangraphs they have been working on a crowd sourcing project for each free agent. Today the results were announced so I thought it would be fun to take a look at what the results were for each of the Giants free agents.

Angel Pagan: 3 years, $10 million AAV (Average Annual Value)

Looking at this it makes the decision to not make a qualifying offer all the more puzzling. Pagan is one of the better free agent outfielder available and it seems like a good bet that he gets at least this deal from some team and possibly more from a desperate team.

I think if this is the best offer he gets the Giants can sign him, if it goes much higher than this he might be gone.

Marco Scutaro: 2 years, $8 million AAV

This is a little higher than I expected due to his age but I wouldn't say that this is an overpay. Going back to 2008, he hasn't produced a season where he was worth less than $9.5 million. That's a solid track record.

I would love if the Giants were able to keep him for the old Freddy Sanchez special of two years, $12 million total but that might be a pipe dream after his amazing second half and playoff performance. He isn't under the radar again and when people take a second look they will like what they see.

Melky Cabrera: 2 years, $8 million AAV

I really doubt Cabrera signs anything less than 4+ years or just a 1 year deal. If some team is willing to give him a long term deal I think he jumps on it. Other than that he probably looks at a one year deal to prove his numbers weren't all the result of PEDs and then try again in 2014.

I doubt he comes back with the Giants, but I would be interested to have him back.

Jeremy Affeldt: 2 years, $5 million AAV

This would be two more years at his current salary. That makes sense. I bet that this is about what he gets but there is an option/buy out tacked onto the end. Given this I would say the Giants bring him back unless someone comes in with a major overpay.

Freddy Sanchez: 1 year, $3 million AAV

To me this seems high. Sanchez is broken and may never play again. If I was a GM I wouldn't even consider him for a Major League contract at this point. I doubt that he comes back with the Giants, we'll always have the memories of 2010 and remember him as a good Giant.

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No qualifying offers for Giants free agents

According to CSN Bay Area the Giants will not be making any qualifying offers to any of their free agents this offseason.

Before anybody freaks out that doesn't mean that they will not be making an effort to re-sign these players. What this means that they are not making them an offer that under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that would give the Giants draft pick compensation if someone else signed them.

The CBA states that in order for a player to qualify for draft pick compensation they must offer players that have been with the team the full season a one year deal equal to the average salary of the top 125 paid players. This year that comes out to a bit more than $13 million.

Of the Giants free agents only a couple really merited consideration for an offer, Cabrera (before the suspension, but a fairly big risk now), Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Affeldt.

I can totally understand not offering the deal to Cabrera or Affeldt.

A $13 million deal for one year is probably more than Affeldt will make over two years. For Cabrera, the Giants seem to be avoiding him like the plague and bringing him back at any amount seems like a long shot.

Pagan on the other hand, this seems like it would have been a prudent risk to take.

Going back to 2009, he has been worth $13.2 million, $21.8 million, $3.9 million and $21.6 million according to Fangraphs WAR to dollar conversion. That's an average of $15.1 million per season over that period.

Given that it doesn't seem like much of an overpay to consider him at one year $13 million, essentially that is his fair market value.

The other thing to consider is that he is probably looking for a long term deal this offseason. With a weak market for free agent outfielders it is a good bet that he will have multiple teams interested in him and will get offers in excess of one year that will guarantee more money than this. In addition this was a strong year for him so it isn't likely that he would want a one year deal to try to rebuild his value.

After considering these things it makes less sense to not offer Pagan a qualifying offer. A one year deal works well for the Giants long term plans, it isn't a massive overpay for his skills and he is likely to see multiple suitors so it would be prudent to attempt to get compensation if he leaves.

This isn't a dumb decision, but I would have loved to been privy to the thought process of what into making it.

Go Giants

What a great game. Really couldn't have asked for much more than this. 

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World Series Preview: Giants vs Tigers

The Vegas odds favor the Tigers. Actually, the odds are pretty heavy in favor of the Tigers. I guess that is what happens when you sweep the Yankees. The guys who set the lines aren't stupid, but this seems to really discount the Giants chances so let's take a look.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Wednesday, October 24, 5:00 PM: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito PREVIEW

Thursday, October 25, 5:00 PM: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Saturday , October 27, 5:00 PM: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Sunday, October 28, 5:00 PM: Max Scherzer vs. Matt Cain

Monday, October 29, 5:00 PM*: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito

Wednesday, October 31, 5:00 PM*: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Thursday, November 1, 5:00 PM*: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

*If necessary. There is always the chance that if the Tigers get down we'll see Verlander on short rest or Lincecum instead of Zito or Bumgarner for a second go-around.

Odds:

	Giants	Tigers
Game 1	42%	58%
Game 2	55%	45%
Game 3	51%	49%
Game 4	50%	50%
Game 5	37%	63%
Game 6	55%	45%
Game 7	55%	45%

No real surprises here. Verlander moves the Tigers to the favorite on the games he starts. Cain and Vogelsong make the first two games in Detroit toss-ups. The big wild card: can Bumgarner fix whatever broke in his mechanics? The Giants think he has, so I really hope that is the case.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Tigers
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	9%	16%
in 6 games	16%	15%
in 7 game	17%	14%
Total:	49%	51%

With both teams being even it's no surprise that the chances of either team sweeping are low. The Tigers' best chance to win the Series is to finish things off at home in five games or less. Any longer and things favor the Giants.

Playing around with things, if Zito is capable of beating Verlander things move heavily into the Giants favor (67% chance of winning series). While a split of the first two games leaves things at 50/50 headed to Detroit.

Getting down 3-1 is probably a very bad idea. If that happens again, the odds of coming back slip to just 11% (by comparison their odds against St. Louis were at 18% in that situation).

I may be a homer, but my prediction is Giants in 7. I want another parade!

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How the Giants came to acquire Gregor Blanco

Baseball America has an excellent column up on how the Tigers and Giants built their championship teams. It is full of interesting tidbits but the one that really jumped out at me was Gregor Blanco.

Former Giants catcher Brian Johnson was the pro scout who covered the upper levels of the Nats system in 2011 and naturally had Bryce Harper at the top of his pref list. But he had Blanco next.

"Our scouts liked him and thought he could compete for a starting role," Shelley said. "We saw a guy with a .360 career OBP, who could defend up the middle, who could run and swing the bat. We also had followed him in Venezuela in winter ball, and (big league hitting coach) Hensley Meulens and our minor league infield rover, Jose Alguacil, helped recruit him to sign with us.

"We also saw that he hadn't had much luck; his average on balls in play was low, and we thought that played a part in his low average last year. Even when he didn't hit, he still had a .350 OBP. So he was at the top of our list last offseason. There's no question it was a group effort with a lot of people involved in acquiring him."

Blanco has made the Giants look good, hitting .244/.333/.344 during the regular season, when he ranked second on the club with 26 steals. He posted a .364 OBP through the first two rounds of playoffs.

There is so much talk about the Giants being behind the times but I really think that perspective is outdated. The Giants do well in mixing a bit of everything into their player acquisition process and it seems to find many players that other teams have left for dead.

Hat Tip to Giants Nirvana who tweeted out the link on Twitter.

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The Giants DH Options

With the World Series comes games in American League ballparks.

With games in American League ballparks comes the weird rule of having a guy called the "designated hitter" to bat for your pitcher.


Seeing as the Giants don't do this kind of thing often I took a look at the options over to them over at Bay Area Sports Guy.

Here is a sampling of the options:

If Bochy wants to play for the platoon advantage he will look to add another left handed bat, so that would be either the switch hitter Sanchez or Huff. If he wants to put his strongest defense on the field he will go with Arias at third and Sandoval at DH. If he wants someone who has the potential to hit the ball over the fence… well there really isn’t anyone but I guess he might choose Nady.

Check out the full thing. There is a pro and con list and everything!

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Barry Zito fulfills prophecy, extends Giants season

Wow what a game.

Barry Zito came up huge, winning a must win game to extend the Giants season at least one more day. Going 7.2 innings with just one intentional walk it was about as great as you could have asked.

And in a way I did ask for it. A few weeks ago I had a weird premonition that Zito would be a hero after it came out he would be in the postseason rotation.

Here is what I said:

It was an amazing night and I am glad he made me look good.

#RallyZito will save us /sobs into a pillow

Somehow this is trending in the United States.

It's come to this guys because the numbers for this game sure don't give you much comfort. Cardinals projected to win about 60 percent of the time according to my model and the odds of the Giants advancing sit at 13 percent right now.

So yeah, freak out and #RallyZito.

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Detailed look at the Giants RISP troubles from last night

The Giants with runners in scoring position last night were abysmal. The Giants put a bunch of guys on base and then decided that it would be rude to their hosts to drive them in.

For those that want to take a stroll through the nightmare I am going to go through each at bats the Giants had taking a detailed look at each one.

Top of the 2nd:

Brandon Belt walks, Gregor Blanco grounds out to first moving Belt to second with two outs.

Situation: Brandon Crawford, runner on second, two outs:



Crawford get’s one pitch that is near the middle of the strike zone on a pretty nice slider from Lohse and swings through it. Everything else is on the corner’s or well outside the strike zone. Crawford has a nice at bat and draws a walk.

Verdict: Good at bat, decent result

Situation: Matt Cain, runners on first and second, two outs:



Cain gets a heavy does of hard two seamers on the outside corner. Lohse gets a generous called strike two and then finally gets Cain on a caught foul tip. Not a bad at bat considering that Cain is a pitcher who came up with two outs.

Verdict: Good at bat, bad result

Top of the 3rd:

Angel Pagan leads off with a single, Marco Scutaro doubles. Runners on second and third with the heart of the order coming up, a big inning looks possible.

Situation: Pablo Sandoval, runner on second and third, no outs:



With the infield back Sandoval at the very least gets the runner in from third with his grounder to short. The ball wasn’t hit particularly hard but it was a productive out that put the Giants on the board.

Verdict: Decent at bat, decent result

Situation: Buster Posey, runner on third, one out:

Posey is intentionally walked.

Situation: Hunter Pence, runner on first and third, one out:



Lohse gives Pence a steady diet of sliders, eventually getting him to pull a slider on the outside corner weakly to the short stop for a double play. This killed the rally and was something that  the Giants did far too much against Lohse. He was living on the outside corner and Giants hitters kept trying to pull it only to weakly ground out to the middle infielders.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Top of the 4th:

With one out Blanco walks, Crawford singles up the middle.

Situation: Cain, runners on first and third, one out:



This is a tough position for a manager; with the pitcher up what would you do in this position? Have him swing away and risk the possibility of a double play? Sacrifice bunt to have two runners in scoring position but two outs? Try for a suicide squeeze of some sort? Pinch hit for your ace in the 4th inning?

Bruce Bochy ultimately went with the sacrifice bunt that Cain was successful in getting down. I don’t know if it was the right call and it probably wasn’t the one that I would have made. The win probability says that this move hurt the Giants chances of winning but that doesn’t take into account that this was a pitcher hitting.

It’s hard to say what would have been best move but Bochy went with the “safe” and conventional route this time.

Verdict: Questionable decision

Situation: Pagan, runners on second and third, two outs:



After the bunt, the duty to score the runs fell onto Pagan. Pagan got a few hittable pitches that he fouled off and ultimately flied out to deep centerfield. If Pagan get’s a hit Bochy looks like a genius, if Pagan makes an out everyone second guesses his bunt decision. The horrible life of a MLB Manager.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 6th:

With two outs, Crawford and Cain both hit singles finally knocking out Lohse, in comes flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal.

Situation: Pagan, runners on first and second, two outs:



Rosenthal reaches back and unleashes fastballs at 98, 98, 99, 101 and 100 to Pagan who does well to work the count but ultimately grounds out to the short stop. Another threat for the Giants extinguished.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 7th:

With one out, Sandoval rips a ball off the left field wall that only a fortunate bounce right to Matt Holiday allows him to keep it to a single. Posey follows it up with a ground ball through the left side of the infield (if only Sandoval could have gotten to second on his liner!). Mike Matheny brings in Mitchell Boggs to face Pence.

Situation: Pence, runners on first and second, one out:



Boggs comes in and gives Pence a heavy does of sliders. Pence helps him out by swinging for the fences on each one and swings right through them. Both the second on the third pitches of this at bat were pretty hittable with out two much break and were middle in. Luckily for the Cardinals Pence is in a funk and couldn’t punish the mistakes.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Situation: Belt, runners on first and second, two outs:



Belt committed the cardinal sin that will probably send him to the bench for tonight’s game, he looked at strike three with a runner in scoring position.

In the end Belt was probably wrong. The pitch sure looks like it was a strike. It was a well thrown slider that started outside and caught the outside corner as it broke back to the plate. The one that really sucks however was strike one, that pitch was probably a good four to six inches off the plate but was called a strike. That put Belt in the whole where he was on the defensive and he never recovered.

Verdict: Bad at bat

After this last threat the Giants never threatened again. In came the Cardinals closer for a two inning save and the Giants went meekly into the night. If they want to have a chance to come back in this series their at bats with runners in scoring position will have to improve.

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Giants Exec Refutes Claim Giants Never Talked About Bringing Beltran Back

One of the things that really ticked me off last off-season with the Giants was that the Giants didn't bring back Carlos Beltran. After he was signed by the Cardinals at a bargain price it hurt even worse.

To top it all off, the story was that the Giants didn't even make an offer to their big mid season acquisition who they had traded their top pitching prospect to get.


Now, John Shea of the Chronicle has gotten word from Giants VP Bobby Evans that it isn't true.

For the first time publicly, a Giants official responded to Beltran's stance that the team did not contact him or show any interest. Assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when relayed Beltran's comment that he didn't hear from the Giants, told The Chronicle he had approximately 12 discussions with Beltran's agent, Dan Lozano, including one face to face at the winter meetings. Plus text messages. 

To fill their outfield spots, the Giants traded for Kansas City's Melky Cabrera and the Mets'Angel Pagan. 

"I don't know if Lozano never conveyed that we had a dozen or so conversations," Evans said. "It's a great mystery. I'm very pleased we were able to acquire Cabrera and Pagan for the same money (that Beltran makes in 2012), but to say we didn't have conversations (with Beltran's agent) is a falsehood. It's just not true. 

"All I can speculate is that Lozano didn't convey the conversations to the player."
No offer was made to Beltran, but Evans said, "We talked in dollars and years, but ultimately the timing was not right. They wanted to wait and feel out the market, and we needed to execute business."

 It doesn't take any of the sting out of losing out on bringing back Beltran, but at least the Giants tried compared to the previous narrative that they didn't seem to care either way.

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Cardinals vs Giants NLCS Preview

The National League Championship series features a pair of teams that within the last few days were both on the brink of elimination and were fighting for their postseason lives. This round only ones teams magical season will continue.

The odds slightly favor the Giants (primarily because of home field advantage if this goes seven games) but I am expecting just about anything to happen.

Here is the statistical breakdown for each squad:

Offense

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Giants	0.269	0.327	0.397	0.315	99
Cardinals	0.271	0.338	0.421	0.329	107

Pitching

	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
Giants	97	101	101
Cardinals	97	95	95

The Cardinals are a better team than the Giants, but it is fairly close. On offense the Cardinals were the best hitting team in the NL this season while the Giants were the fourth best. On the pitching side, the teams are even in ERA- while the Cardinals have the edge in the fielding independent statistics.

On paper this is a very close match up that leans toward the Cardinals, however this is a short series and sometimes a guy like Cody Ross hits like vintage Barry Bonds over a short stretch, you never know and that is why we all love this crazy game.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Sunday, October 14, 5:00 PM: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Monday, October 15, 5:00 PM: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Wednesday, October 17, 1:00 PM: Kyle Loshe vs. Matt Cain

Thursday, October 18, 5:00 PM: Adam Wainright vs. Tim Lincecum*

Friday, October 19, 5:00 PM**: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Sunday, October 21, 1:30 PM**: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Monday, October 22, 5:00 PM**: Kyle Lohse vs. Matt Cain

*Not announced but it is what I am hoping for

**If necessary

Odds:

	Giants	Cardinals
Game 1	57%	43%
Game 2	54%	46%
Game 3	49%	51%
Game 4	39%	61%
Game 5	48%	52%
Game 6	54%	46%
Game 7	58%	42%

In each game the home team is the favorite but outside of games one, four and seven all of the match ups are fairly close to toss up games where neither team has a large advantage.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Cardinals
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	12%	13%
in 6 games	17%	15%
in 7 game	18%	13%
Total:	53%	47%

The Giants enjoy the slight advantage in the odds right now due to the benefit of home field advantage. The longer the series goes the more it swings in the Giants favor and on paper it looks like there is a decent chance of that happening. The probability of a sweep is slim with neither team having much of an edge in the first four games.

According to my projections, we should all prepare our selves for a long series. The odds of at least six games right now are sitting at 63% and this is probably a good thing that favors the Giants with the last two games at home.

The experts at ESPN are split as to who will win but it sure seems that the Cardinals bandwagon is a bit fuller at this moment. I actually don't mind that at all and I am a bit reassured by these numbers giving the slight edge to the Giants. This plus the underdog role seems to fit into the pattern of what happened in 2010 and we all remember what happened then.

Lincecum, Zito Among Least Valuable Pitchers

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Glenn DuPaul took a look at the least valuable players this season based on what a player produced on the field compared to what the team payed him.

On this list are two of the Giants pitchers, Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum.

It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to people that have watched the Giants. Neither of these guys were all that good this season and each made over $20 million.

For National League pitchers that qualified for the ERA title, Lincecum posted the highest ERA, Zito had the 9th highest mark. In other words that was a bunch of runs surrendered for all those millions.

Luckily for the Giants having two of the highest paid number 4 and 5 starters in the league didn't kill the season as the team is getting ready to play in the NLCS. For another team that didn't quite have the financial flexibility of the Giants it could have taken down the whole season.

I am happy that this wasn't my money and I sure won't complain too much with the Giants in the playoffs.

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Giants Win, Complete Improbable Comeback

A thing of beauty

Two days ago the Giants had just a 15 percent chance of winning this series. This afternoon they became the first National League team to come back from down 0-2 in a five game series.

The big inning was the 5th where the Giants scored all 6 runs and then held on for dear life. All those times putting the tying run on base nearly gave me a heart attack and made it hard to type at times with my hands shaking uncontrollably.

It wasn't easy.

It wasn't pretty.

In the end it really doesn't matter because the Giants won.

Now us fans have a day or two to recover from the stress and nerves before the NLCS ratchets up the nerves to the next level.

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Giants odds at 28 percent: Updated NLDS Odds

After an improbable win where the Giants offense took a play right out of the 2010 Padres playbook the Giants season continues to today.

Since I last looked at the odds things have changed quite a bit, with Johnny Cueto out and Mike Leake brought into replace him. Today it is Leake vs. Barry Zito (another change) and if necessary it will be Mat Latos vs. Matt Cain tomorrow morning.

Here is everything updated with the changes since a ran the original projection and the updated odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	100%	0%
Game 2	100%	0%
Game 3	0%	100%
Game 4	49%	51%
Game 5	44%	56%

And the permutations for the last two games:

Games	Reds	Giants
3	0%	0%
4	49%	0%
5	23%	28%
Total	72%	28%

It's still a long shot for the Giants but crazier things have happened and amazingly the Giants are actually favored in the last two games (even though they would be better classified as toss ups).

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Projecting Giants vs. Reds NLDS

After missing last year the welcome pangs of nervousness have come back with the Giants back in the playoffs.

In the National League Division series the Giants face the NL Central Champion Reds. The Reds are a very good team and this series shouldn't be easy for either team.


Here is the statistical breakdown for each team:

Offense

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Giants	0.269	0.327	0.397	0.315	99
Reds	0.251	0.315	0.411	0.314	93

Pitching

	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
Giants	97	101	101
Reds	83	93	97

The Giants have the edge on offense, while the Reds have the edge in pitching. Neither edge is huge and at least based on the eyeball test it looks like they might balance themselves out.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections.
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Saturday, October 6, 6:30 PM: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Sunday, October 7, 6:30 PM: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner

Tuesday, October 9, 2:30 PM: Mat Latos vs. Tim Lincecum*

Wednesday, October 10, TBD**: Homer Bailey vs. Ryan Vogelsong*

Thursday, October 11, TBD**: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain

*The Giants haven't announced who will be pitching beyond game 2 but this is my best guess.

**If necessary

Odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	43%	57%
Game 2	37%	63%
Game 3	49%	51%
Game 4	44%	56%
Game 5	48%	52%

The Giants are favored in every game with games three and five coming out at just about toss up games. The big thing that drives the advantage is the Giants run scoring of all things, if you went back and told that to ourselves last year we would think we were crazy.

The Reds have the pitching advantage in every game expect for game 2, where Bumgarner has the edge on Arroyo who is the Reds worst starter of the four. In addition the last thing the Giants want to see is the Reds bullpen so getting out to a quick start will be even more important.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

Games	Reds	Giants
3	8%	19%
4	14%	24%
5	17%	19%
Total	39%	61%

The Giants starting at home really helps with the series. The chance of a sweep for the Reds is very small while the Giants have nearly a one in five chance at the sweep.

If the Giants are able to take the first two games of the series they push their odds of winning to 90 percent while a split at home makes it into a 50/50 proposition.

As reassuring these numbers are, this is still a short series where random fluctuation can cause havoc, at the very least the Giants have the benefit of starting at home to try to build a commanding lead in the series. 

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Comparing the 2010 and 2012 Giants teams

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy I wrote up a post comparing the 2010 and 2012 teams. I was pretty surprised that the 2010 team came out ahead but maybe I shouldn't have been with the superior pitching.

Here is the conclusion. Check out the full post for the whole thing.

Cumulative Fangraphs Numbers2010 Giants hitting (fWAR): 32.52010 Giants pitching (fWAR): 18.42010 Giants fielding (UZR): 60.72012 Giants hitting (fWAR): 28.82012 Giants pitching (fWAR): 15.42012 Giants fielding (UZR): 0.0 

One thing to note: based on Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), the 2010 Giants were the best defensive team in Major League Baseball. In 2012, they started out so badly that they’re going to finish the year right in the middle of the pack. We’ll just have to wait and see if defense becomes an issue this October. 

Overall, the 2010 Giants might have been a little bit better based on the strength of that team’s pitching staff, but I think that the 2012 offense could hold their own with the 2010 team.

Melky Cabrera Suspended 50 Games

Well that was some pretty shocking news to hear. So many ramifications to deal with.

When can he come back?

With 46 games remaining this will put Melky Cabrera out for the remainder of the season. Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area has confirmed that he can play in the playoffs should the Giants make it but will have to sit out the first five games.

The Giants would have to go without an empty roster spot in the event that they would want him to be able play which would be a hard thing to justify. Maybe without the need for an extra pitcher they could justify that, at this point it is still a very open question.

How does this effect the Giants chances to make the playoffs?

Cabrera was the second most valuable player on the Giants and taking him out of the lineup is a huge blow to the offense that was just starting to come together. ZiPS projects him to be worth nearly a full win over the Giants remaining games. His replacement is likely Gregor Blanco or maybe Brett Pill, neither of them should be expected to come close to replacing what was lost.

With the Giants tied with the Dodgers for first place, this makes the NL West even more wide open. The one saving grace is that the Giants have a slightly easier schedule down the stretch. Regardless this really hurts the Giants playoff chances.

How much did he just cost him self in free agency?

This one is something that doesn't have a lot of comparable situations to look at. Dave Cameron did look a little bit at this and guessed that he might take a 1 year deal to try to reestablish his value. He went from looking at a deal in excess of $50 million to not knowing who will be willing to give him a shot. Who knows what will happen but it will be interesting to see.

This is the biggest PED case to happen to a guy looking to sign a big contract in his prime years.

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Brandon Belt Gets Hot

After a pretty dismal July, Brandon Belt has put together a very nice start to August. In August only Buster Posey and Chase Headley have better wRC+ in the NL than Belt's 219 (before tonight's game).

Tonight he had to his hot month with three hits and three RBI. Even this undersells what he did tonight with two homers missed by mere feet. His adventures on the base paths were something I am sure he would rather forget but he sure did hit the ball well tonight.

The biggest difference this month has been his contact rate. It's a small sample but it sure is encouraging to see Belt with a strike out rate in the single digits for the month. Especially after striking out in nearly 40 percent of his plate appearances last month.

Belt is not likely to be a guy who avoids strikeouts, he still struck out quite a bit in the minors too, but if his able to keep the k's in check he should be able to be a very good hitter.

I haven't seen or read about him making any major adjustments that he has made between now and last month so maybe it just random fluctuation (it probably is) but sure is an encouraging sign. Another fun but meaningless stats is that in even numbered months Belt has hit like an All-Star while odd months have seen him hit like a replacement level player, luckily the playoffs fall in one of those even months so he could always be a hero if the pattern holds.

It is nice to see Belt start to put everything together. The ride has been bumpier than Belt supporters would have liked but it is games like this that make me happy the Giants didn't completely give up on him last month.

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Buster Posey is Amazing

This won't be a long post but I just wanted to mention that Buster Posey is an amazing human being and that I admire what he has done this season.

So far he has posted a .328/ .394/ .542 line, with 18 home runs.

Right now he has about the same number of plate appearances (actually 34 less) that he had in his amazing rookie year and he has eclipsed his numbers in every single way. Simply amazing.

To top it all off he is coming back from a horrific ankle injury that would have sapped the ability of lesser men. I know that when I had my own horrific leg injury it took me several years before I was anywhere near where I was previously and it just makes me admire what he has done this season even more.

Buster Posey is among the best hitters in baseball and he plays for our team. This is a very good thing.

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Nate Schierholtz's parting thoughts on Bruce Bochy

Nate Schierholtz had already voiced that he wasn't happy with the way that the Giants had treated him earlier this season and now that he is in Philadelphia he has a few more thoughts to share on his time with the Giants.

He said this to Matt Gelb of the The Philadelphia Inquirer:

"I just felt like I had a short leash. It was series by series, if I didn’t perform for three games, that was my chance. It got frustrating at times. We didn't see eye to eye." 

I don't think that you can really say that he is wrong, he was given the starting job and then at the first sign of struggle he was pulled. All the while veterans were given long leashes where they had months and months before their playing time was effected.

Here is more from CSN Philly:

“It got to the point [in San Francisco] where I didn’t see myself having an everyday role. I felt like I needed a chance to earn more playing time, maybe get 100 at-bats in a row, but it wasn’t going to happen.”

I know that the fans appreciated him and I can still remember the times back in 2009 when Randy Winn was a shell of his former self yet still got the bulk of the playing time. It was like what happened with Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff last season.

I sure hope this isn't Brandon Belt in a few years.

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Hunter Pence Reactions

I have already had a chance to go over my thoughts on the Hunter Pence trade but I think it would be fun to take a look at what everyone else has said about the trade in the blogosphere. Plus it will give us an easy way to look back and see who was right and who was wrong about the deal.

Around the Foghorn:

• San Francisco Giants Acquire Hunter Pence In Trade With Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball Prospectus ($):

• Giants Counter Dodgers, Acquire Pence

Bay Area Ball:

• Questions and Answers

Bay Area Sports Guy:

• Giants make a splash, A’s seem content to tread water
• Dennis O’Donnell was right – Giants trade for Hunter Pence
• Hunter Pence trade improves offense, creates defensive concerns

Bay City Ball:

• Giants trade for Praying Mantis
• On Hunter Pence’s power

El Lefty Malo:

• Brian Sabean Makes All The Right Moves

Fangraphs:

• Giants Upgrade Their Outfield With Hunter Pence
• Philly Receives Respectable Return for Hunter Pence

Giants Nirvana:

• Giants Acquire Hunter Pence

Golden Gate Giants:

• Giants Land Hunter Pence

Keith Law ($):

• Breaking down the Victorino and Pence trades

McCovey Chronicles:

• Hunter Pence Trade: The Knee-Jerk Analysis

The Giants Baseball Blog:

• Giants Deal for Pence, Can't Land Reliever

The Giants Cove:

• Giants Deal From Strength, Make a Big Move at the Trade Deadline

The Lunatic Fringe:

• Being Pensive About The Pence Trade

Let me know if I missed anyone.

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Hunter Pence Trade Analysis

The Giants said that they weren't looking to make a big move at the trade deadline and then they went out and made a pretty big move to get Hunter Pence from the Phillies.

I wrote up some analysis on the trade for Bay Area Sports Guy, here is the conclusion:

Pence in right field replaces the Schierholtz/Gregor Blanco combo. When you look at what ZiPS projects for the rest of the season Pence will be worth approximately 1 WAR, the Shierholtz/Blanco combo was projected to be worth around 0.75 WAR. So the Giants are better, but not by a huge margin.

Fortunately for the Giants this isn’t a pure rental situation, as Pence has one more season of team control. He is projected to earn about $13 to 14 million next season, so if he is a 3-4 WAR player he could potentially have some decent surplus value. At worst, the Giants could flip him in the off-season if they decide they can’t afford him.

Overall the Giants probably got a pretty even amount of value in Pence for what they gave up in Schierholtz, Joesph and Rosin. I would have loved to see these trade chips used to get better at a position that has really killed them (like second base) but there really wasn’t much available there.

Today’s trade might make the Giants offense better. However, unless Pence is able to produce a fluky-hot second half like he had in Philadelphia last season, this isn’t really the game-changer kind of deal that guarantees an NL West title.

Read the whole thing. 

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Extending Melky Cabrera

Cross posted from Bay Area Sports Guy:

One of the hardest questions as a Giants fan is do you want to offer Melky Carbrera a long term contact. If so, how high would you be willing to go?

Complicating the matter is the fact that he has two distinct periods in career, on e in which he has produced at a below average rate and one at an above average rate. Prior to his 2011 stint with the Royals, he was a prospect who didn’t live to his hype and was a tweener in the outfield. From 2011 to this year, he has hit like gangbusters and has played at the worst an average corner outfield defense.

That brings up the question when you considering a long term deal: Which is the real Cabrera?

Is it the guy that failed to live up to the expectations placed upon him? Or the guy that blew past previous hype and is now a certified All-Star?

Luckily, we have a few ways to look at things when forming out opinions on long term contracts. The first is the always there when you need it Oliver from the Hardball Times (which is provided by @SFBleacherGirl because I decided paying for daycare was more important than a projection system) that provides six year projections. In addition I will use more simplistic models that assume 0.5 decay in WAR production, along the same lines a 10% WAR decay per year model. And, last but not least, I will look at what the ten players that Baseball-Reference said were his most similar players through age 27 did over these years.

Here are some projections:

Age Year Oliver 0.5 Decay 10% Decay BBRef Comp Avg
28 2013 1.4 4 4 1.3
29 2014 0.9 3.5 3.6 2.2
30 2015 0.7 3 3.2 1.4
31 2016 0.4 2.5 2.9 1.3
32 2017 0.1 2 2.6 0.9
33 2018 -0.1 1.5 2.4 0.6
34 2019 -0.3 1 2.1 0.2
The Oliver projection isn’t pretty, but that is expected because projections never project career years for guys with the track record of a Cabrera. That being said it, that doesn’t mean that Oliver is wrong either.

The 0.5 decay and 10 percent decay are pretty straight forward and only change based on the assumed WAR of the starting year for which I used 4 WAR, his total last season.

The Baseball-Reference list is the simple average of the WAR that each player produced. His most similar players produced at a nearly league average rate until about age 31 and then suffered pretty large declines with each passing year. This seems to be a pretty fair approximation, although I would hope that Cabrera could be a bit better in the first couple years of the deal.

Looking at a rough average of all four would give you something like this: 3, 2.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 1, and 1. I think that this is a very good ball park for what to expect going forward. This seems like a good middle of the road guess that I feel comfortable using going forward.

The next step is looking at what a win will be valued at. This is kind of a crude method, but it works pretty good to give a general ball park of what the market rate is for free agents. Right now, a win is worth approximately $5 million on the open market. For this, we will look at three different inflation scenarios over the next few years.

Years 10% 7% 5%
3 $45.16 $42.83 $41.31
4 $59.80 $55.93 $53.47
5 $71.88 $66.45 $63.04
6 $80.74 $73.96 $69.74
7 $90.48 $81.99 $76.78
At shorter term deals, there isn’t really that much difference. When you go longer, however, you start to see some divergence. With how his comparable players aged, I would feel uncomfortable with the Giants going long term. It seems that the Giants have gotten a bit more selective in their long term deals over the last few years.

The range that I would love to see would be the three to four year even, so long as it came with a higher average annual value that would push the deal to $45 to $55 million. It would also give Cabrera the chance to sign one more significant contract as a free agent after either his age 30 or 31 season after proving his last couple season weren’t fluky.

That would be ideal but when dealing with free agents things often don’t work out so nicely.

The deal that is talked about as one Cabrera is looking as a model is Andre Ethier, who recently signed a five-year $85 million deal. Even under the best assumptions, such a deal looks to be a bad bargain for the Giants and if some team is willing to go to that level, the Giants will probably lose him. It will be sad to see him go, but the Giants will be smart to let some other team take on the risk with a deal that has little upside.

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Phillies

The Phillies have been an under performing team this season but by no means does it feel like this should be an easy series. For one going into Philadelphia is never easy, the crowd I am sure still has no love for the Giants and will want to let it be known, the weather is going to be pretty gross with warm nights (at least not hot) and thunderstorms, oh yeah and their is a still pretty good baseball team that plays there.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses.
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables (via MLB.com):

• Friday, July 20, 4:05 PM: Tim Lincecum vs. Vance Worley
• Saturday, July 21, 1:05 PM: Matt Cain vs. Cole Hamels
• Sunday, July 22, 10:35 AM: Barry Zito vs. Joe Blanton

Odds:

	Phillies	Giants
Game 1	47%	53%
Game 2	52%	48%
Game 3	58%	42%
Sweep	14%	11%
2 out 3	39%	36%
1 out 3	36%	39%
0 out 3	11%	14%
Win Series	53%	47%
Lose Series	47%	53%

The projection model has not given up on Tim Lincecum and it is reflected in the games one odds where it says that the Giants are favored. I am a bit skeptical, and I will continue to be until Lincecum puts together a decent string of starts that suggest that it is more than a one game thing.

The Game two match-up is an exciting one with two of the best starters in the National League squaring off. The model suggests a tight low scoring game is in order and I sure hope that is the case.

Game three isn't as exciting as the first two with the Phillies having a pretty big edge. Barry Zito has done some pretty crazy things in this up and down year so I guess it is possible that he could bring the same stuff that shutout the Braves for seven innings with him to Philadelphia. I am not counting on it but it could happen.

I am going to go against my nature and say that I expect a series victory in this one, I hope Lincecum shows that his last start wasn't a fluke and builds on it on his way to a resurgent second half. I hope that Cain out duels Hamels. I hope that Zito gives the Giants a chance to win and doesn't kill the bullpen. So here's hoping to at least two out of three of those things happen.

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