According to CSN Bay Area the Giants will not be making any qualifying offers to any of their free agents this offseason.
Before anybody freaks out that doesn't mean that they will not be making an effort to re-sign these players. What this means that they are not making them an offer that under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that would give the Giants draft pick compensation if someone else signed them.
The CBA states that in order for a player to qualify for draft pick compensation they must offer players that have been with the team the full season a one year deal equal to the average salary of the top 125 paid players. This year that comes out to a bit more than $13 million.
Of the Giants free agents only a couple really merited consideration for an offer, Cabrera (before the suspension, but a fairly big risk now), Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Affeldt.
I can totally understand not offering the deal to Cabrera or Affeldt.
A $13 million deal for one year is probably more than Affeldt will make over two years. For Cabrera, the Giants seem to be avoiding him like the plague and bringing him back at any amount seems like a long shot.
Pagan on the other hand, this seems like it would have been a prudent risk to take.
Going back to 2009, he has been worth $13.2 million, $21.8 million, $3.9 million and $21.6 million according to Fangraphs WAR to dollar conversion. That's an average of $15.1 million per season over that period.
Given that it doesn't seem like much of an overpay to consider him at one year $13 million, essentially that is his fair market value.
The other thing to consider is that he is probably looking for a long term deal this offseason. With a weak market for free agent outfielders it is a good bet that he will have multiple teams interested in him and will get offers in excess of one year that will guarantee more money than this. In addition this was a strong year for him so it isn't likely that he would want a one year deal to try to rebuild his value.
After considering these things it makes less sense to not offer Pagan a qualifying offer. A one year deal works well for the Giants long term plans, it isn't a massive overpay for his skills and he is likely to see multiple suitors so it would be prudent to attempt to get compensation if he leaves.
This isn't a dumb decision, but I would have loved to been privy to the thought process of what into making it.
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