The Improbable Ryan Vogelsong

If someone says that they saw the performance of Ryan Vogelsong coming, they are either related to him or certifiably insane.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that, on a team that just won the World Series with the strength of its pitching, would see him as one of their most valuable starters.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that Vogelsong, at the end of June, would be just six and a third innings away from qualifying for the National League ERA lead.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that he would be among the top 25 most valuable pitchers in the National League this season. (#10 according to Baseball-Reference and #21 according to Fangraphs)

I don't think anyone would have imagined that there would be serious discussion about him being an All-Star.

These were all improbable but the thing that makes his early season success all the more impressive is it's unprecidented for people not destined for Cooperstown to put up these numbers at his age. Here is the list of people to pitch 70 innings of sub 2.00 ERA in the expansion era at the age of 33 or older:

Rk	Player	ERA ▴	IP	Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
1	Nolan Ryan	1.69	149.0	1981	34	HOU	21	21	5	3	11	5	.688	99	34	28	68	140	195
2	Ryan Vogelsong	1.86	72.2	2011	33	SFG	13	11	1	1	5	1	.833	60	16	15	19	57	200
3	Roger Clemens	1.87	211.1	2005	42	HOU	32	32	1	0	13	8	.619	151	51	44	62	185	226
4	Gaylord Perry	1.92	342.2	1972	33	CLE	41	40	29	5	24	16	.600	253	79	73	82	234	170

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/27/2011.

At this point, there is no need to over analyze this. Lets just enjoy the ride.

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