I Hope this is Rock Bottom for the Giants

The Giants went ten and a third innings without getting a hit. That is really bad.

The Giants blew two leads. That is really bad.

The Cubs starter last 1+ inning and the Giants couldn't capitalize on the bullpen. That is really bad.

After scoring 19 runs in 18 innings over the first two games, the Giants scored three runs over the next 22 innings. That is really bad.

This was one of the worst games of the year and I really hope this is rock bottom for the offensive ineptitude.

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How Much Does a Sub-Optimal Lineup Cost the Giants

Almost everyday, without fail, when the Giants lineup is posted, there is something to complain about. Whether it is Aaron Rowand getting a start against a right handed pitcher or Miguel Tejada hitting second, there is usually something there to get under your skin.

The standard thing to say is that the day-to-day lineup isn't that big of a deal. For most teams, you are looking at about ten to 15 runs difference over the course of the season, but what about the Giants this year?

Giants Offensive Explosion

Thank you Chicago; you're my kind of town. Yesterday, the Giants offense had more explosions than a Michael Bay movie and, even as a snooty cultured left coaster who loves some drama, I could learn to appreciate a few more of these big budget explosion fests.

In one day, the Giants scored 19 runs, which is more runs than the team had scored in their last seven games combined (even though they had gone 5-2 in that stretch). At the start of the day, the Giants were averaging just 3.39 runs per game, dead last in the majors. Now, they are averaging a robust 3.55 and have put the lowly Padres back where they belong in the runs per game cellar.

Why Can't the Giants Score Runs?

The Giants have scored the fewest runs in the Majors this season and are on pace to be among the lowest scoring teams in the clubs 128 years of existence. So why can't the team score runs?

I wonder what an unnamed Giants official might say. Luckily, the Boston Globe got the low down for us, "We need RBI bats. That’s what we’re looking for right now."

Wow, I can't believe it took them this long to think of this. It's not that they have the fourth lowest OBP in the Majors or that they have the sixth lowest slugging percentage or that they are battling the Mariners for the lowest wRC+ in the Majors.

The Improbable Ryan Vogelsong

If someone says that they saw the performance of Ryan Vogelsong coming, they are either related to him or certifiably insane.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that, on a team that just won the World Series with the strength of its pitching, would see him as one of their most valuable starters.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that Vogelsong, at the end of June, would be just six and a third innings away from qualifying for the National League ERA lead.

I don't think anyone would have imagined that he would be among the top 25 most valuable pitchers in the National League this season. (#10 according to Baseball-Reference and #21 according to Fangraphs)

I don't think anyone would have imagined that there would be serious discussion about him being an All-Star.

These were all improbable but the thing that makes his early season success all the more impressive is it's unprecidented for people not destined for Cooperstown to put up these numbers at his age. Here is the list of people to pitch 70 innings of sub 2.00 ERA in the expansion era at the age of 33 or older:

Rk	Player	ERA ▴	IP	Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
1	Nolan Ryan	1.69	149.0	1981	34	HOU	21	21	5	3	11	5	.688	99	34	28	68	140	195
2	Ryan Vogelsong	1.86	72.2	2011	33	SFG	13	11	1	1	5	1	.833	60	16	15	19	57	200
3	Roger Clemens	1.87	211.1	2005	42	HOU	32	32	1	0	13	8	.619	151	51	44	62	185	226
4	Gaylord Perry	1.92	342.2	1972	33	CLE	41	40	29	5	24	16	.600	253	79	73	82	234	170

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/27/2011.

At this point, there is no need to over analyze this. Lets just enjoy the ride.

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Jeremy Affeldt Deals

Jeremy Affeldt looked ridiculously good last evening, getting a rare two inning save (Brain Wilson was unavailable), striking out five, and giving the Giants 16 total strikeouts on the night.

It is a moment like this that you just have to marvel at the talent that the Giants have accumulated in their bullpen. Affeldt is, on most nights, the fourth option out of the bullpen and showed tonight that when he has control of his pitches, he's unhittable. A tip of the hat to Brian Sabean for assembling this group.

I am not sure exactly what changed but Affeldt has regained a feel for the strike zone. In the first two months of the year, he was wild and not exactly effectively wild; he was walking 4+ batters per nine innings. However, since June started, he has been a completely different pitcher.

Here is a rundown of his excellent stretch that he has put together for June:

2.05 FIP
1.42 xFIP
0.68 ERA
11.48 K/9
5.67 K/BB

While this is just a very small stretch of innings, there is a lot that is encouraging here. Keeping the ball down while also being in the strike zone makes Affeldt a very good pitcher. He has nasty stuff with a heavy sinking two seam fastball that induces swings and misses and ground balls.

I am optimistic that Affeldt can be a reliable option going into the future.

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Baseball Bloggers Alliance: All-Star Ballot

It's All-Star time again and as a proud member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance I need to submit my National League ballot for the All-Star team.

I have already gone over who I think are the deserving Giants to make the team but there will be no position players that are good enough to make the cut as my choices and I most certainly am not voting "the ticket" because well I don't have a vote for the American League so there will be no Red Sox on this list.

So here is my ballot.

Catcher:

Brian McCann, Braves

If Buster Posey weren't hurt I think that I would be probably putting his name here but McCann is a great choice. He is putting up a .300/ .379/ .512 line with 13 home runs and a wOBA of .381. This makes me incredibly jealous because no Giant hitter is near these numbers and makes me miss Buster Posey.

First Base:

Prince Fielder, Brewers

This was a hard choice to make between Fielder and Votto but in the end the superior power numbers put Fielder over the top for me. His .306/ .428/ .616 line is ridiculous especially considering that the Giants everyday first baseman Aubrey Huff can't even muster a slugging percentage as high as Fielder's on base percentage.

Second Base:

Rickie Weeks, Brewers

Thinking about Brewers hitters will cause Giants fans to want to break things so I will make this short and sweet. Weeks is really good, his brother is really exciting to watch but Rickie is one of the better players in the majors right now.

Third Base:

Chase Headley, Padres

This one was really hard to choose because there are 3 kind of meh choices. Ultimately I went with Headley because he is putting up impressive numbers even though he plays half his games in Petco. His road numbers look really really good and even his overall numbers look pretty good. In a regular year it is probably not enough to make it but this year it is and he has my vote.

Short Stop:

Miguel Tejada, Giants

Ha ha ha, just kidding. The real choice is Jose Reyes who is having a career year and is the envy of every Giants fan. It is great to see Reyes back because he was one of the great rising stars in the league and it was said to see him miss so much time due to injury.

Outfield:

Matt Kemp, Dodgers, Andrew McCutchen, Pirates and Lance Berkman, Cardinals

Kemp has turned in the kind of year that he has always shown the talent that he was capable of and all I can say is thank God there is no one else on the Dodgers to back him up. Leading the league in slugging and wOBA while stealing over 20 bases that all star stuff and a potential MVP season.

McCutchen is an amazing player and I hope that for some reason he is the next Pirate that leads the Giants to great things following in the footsteps of Barry Bonds, Jason Schmidt and Ryan Vogelsong.

Last is Berkman who I thought was on his last legs and might be just a role player this season. Well it looks like that role is middle of the order thumper. Berkman may not have the third best numbers among NL outfielders but he is a great story who has put up very good numbers and deserves to play in another All-Star game.

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Finding The Giants in Tall Tales

I’ve been writing a lot more about baseball lately. This is the natural consequence of me thinking a lot more about baseball lately. As a Santa Cruz native who has spent the past 6 years living in Santa Barbara Dodger country, my recent move to Berkeley has come with a new depth of interest in the national pastime, and in our Giants as well. I’m thrilled to be new to the world of sports writing, and somewhat surprised by exactly how I ended up heading in that direction.

Recently, I somehow found myself caught in a lively debate over whether American culture is more thoroughly represented in 'The Road Not Taken' - that endless, lovable, and shamelessly American poem we all were asked to read and analyze constantly throughout gradeschool - or baseball classic Casey at the Bat.

Early on, I found myself on the side of Casey. Casey’s story is a tall tale - the story of a larger-than-life hero who meets with tragedy. It’s a story of rampant overconfidence. It’s easy to see some Americana themes pretty at home in this poem, and plus it’s about baseball which gives it an edge of relatability over most poetry.

But regardless of these easy connections, I couldn’t help but wonder why I was so taken with this ballad of failed offense. The story of Casey's struggle is normally thought of as having about as much importance as a knock-knock joke, but in defending its legitimacy I realized exactly why I was so compelled by the story.

For one thing, the baseball poem is an indictment of the whole idea of 'the sure thing.' Casey is certain to catch that elusive win, he is expected to by everyone watching. That the odds might be foiled by circumstance or unexpected chance doesn’t enter into the imagination of the fans assembled. This is our story since America on the whole, and baseball in particular, is the story of anything but the sure thing. That’s when it hit me.

Casey at the Bat is the story of an impotent hitter; but there is a character in the story who is never named and only mentioned once. While Casey at the Bat is the story of disaster for the beloved hitter, it is also the story of unassuming victory for the villainous, opportunistic and sneaky pitcher. Casey’s failure is not chance or circumstance. He is outclassed by the man on the mound.

Now that’s a story I can relate to; and I figure Casey at the Bat takes on an entirely different meaning for a Giants fan. This is the story of the big, mean, square-jawed power hitter beaten by his own over-confidence into watching three strikes fly by him. He loses simply because he can’t believe he might be beaten by anyone. For every impossible loss, every Giants fan knows, there is an impossible victory.

As much as it is a game of numbers, it is a game of breaking probability. Baseball is a game of impossibility. So this is what I’ve started thinking about. There is more going on in baseball than we often bother to stop and consider. I’m fascinated by the sides of baseball that reach out and affect society outside the park, and this is the line of thinking I’m going to be following - alongside the rest of the math, hope, grief and future projections that make up our life as baseball fans.

And I’m thrilled to among the crabbers. Cheers.

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The Giants Deserving All-Stars

Due to the Giants being the defending National League Champions Bruce Bochy has the honor of being the skipper for the NL All-Star team. One of the perks that comes along with that is picking the reserves and pitchers for the team.

According to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News he is going to "be a little biased" and try to give as many Giants as possible a shot at being on the team.

So who on this team is deserving to be an All-Star?

Here are the Giants position players, with their WAR to date and their rank for their position:

Pos	Player	WAR	Rank
C	Buster Posey	1.6	5
C	Eli Whiteside	0.1	25
1B	Aubrey Huff	-0.6	26
2B	Freddy Sanchez	1.0	8
SS	Mike Fontenot	0.5	14
SS	Brandon Crawford	0.2	17
SS	Manny Burris	-0.4	27
SS/3B	Miguel Tejada	-0.5	28
3B	Pablo Sandoval	1.4	4
OF	Aaron Rowand	1.2	31
OF	Andres Torres	1.0	37
OF	Pat Burrell	0.7	47
OF	Cody Ross	0.7	49
OF	Nate Schierholtz	0.3	58

The pickings are pretty slim. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez would likely be headed to the All-Star game if they both weren't out with major injuries. After that only Sandoval is left with a respectable ranking at his given position.

So if Bochy is going to pick a position player from the Giants I would say that it has to be Sandoval and that is really only a defensible choice because 3B in the National League this season is especially weak.

Next let's look at the pitchers. I will do the same thing as I did for the position players but I will include both the Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR and rank numbers because for pitchers they calculate them differently and there is a pretty large divergence.

Fangraphs:

Pos	Player	WAR	Rank
SP	Tim Lincecum	2.6	7
SP	Matt Cain	2.1	11
SP	Madison Bumgarner	2.0	12
SP	Ryan Vogelsong	1.6	23
SP	Jonathan Sanchez	1.0	46
RP	Sergio Romo	0.9	10
RP	Brian Wilson	0.7	16
RP	Javier Lopez	0.4	31

Baseball-Reference:

Pos	Player	WAR	Rank
SP	Ryan Vogelsong	3.0	8
SP	Matt Cain	2.0	17
SP	Tim Lincecum	1.9	19
SP	Jonathan Sanchez	1.1	40
SP	Madison Bumgarner	0.7	50
RP	Brian Wilson	1.3	10
RP	Ramon Ramirez	1.1	17
RP	Javier Lopez	1.0	19
RP	Sergio Romo	0.8	31

The thing that I notice when looking at this is that man the Giants have some really good pitching and it is deep. No other team had all 5 of their starters in the top 50 for WAR in either measure (although the Phillies pitchers do occupy the top 3).

If Bochy is going to be biased this is where he can get away with some home cooking.

For the starters I would say that Lincecum, Cain and Vogelsong would all be justifiable choices and for the relievers Wilson, Romo and Lopez all have a case.

If I were to take a guess as to who would be the guys selected by Bochy I would say that he takes 4 Giants and that he goes with Sandoval (partial pay back for '09 snub), Lincecum, Vogelsong (how could he pass him up with his story and out of no where excellence) and Wilson. Between now and July 3rd things could change but this is my gut feeling.

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Stats Guru looks at Tim Lincecum's Changeup

Tim Lincecum is a great pitcher but he has been in a bit of a funk as of late. David Pinto over at Baseball Analytics takes a look at his change up and suspects that what is causing him to be hittable is his change up.

Once June came around, Lincecum started leaving the pitch relatively up:

Tim Lincecum, change up location, June 2011Tim appears to be throwing the pitch the same way, as an examination of the spin showed no obvious changes. With the pitch up in the strike zone, however, batters are making contact.

You should check out the full post because there are some awesome heat maps.

I do have a few things that I wonder however is that in June he has to date only thrown 14 change ups in this sample which I have to wonder if that is a big enough sample to draw any sort of conclusions from. (Update 2:20 pm Per David Pinto via Twitter: this was only for change ups put into play, previously batters were 0 for 31 on his change up, with 15 K. No walks or HBP.)

From watching him I would think that his problem has come a lot more from not being able to locate his fastball and with this pitch not a weapon hitters having the ability to sit on the breaking pitches.

Regardless cool graphs and something interesting to check out.

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Poor Offense Shouldn't Doom Giants

The Giants offense isn't good. Some might even say historically bad. So does that mean that they are doomed and no chance at post season immortality?

As much as the pessimist in me wants to say yes the data just doesn't seem to support that finding.

Obsessive Giants Compulsive in a post last night brought to our attention some very interesting research done previously by Baseball Prospectus. Here are some of his very interesting nuggets but read the whole thing because there is lots of good stuff there:

• There is literally no relationship between regular-season offense and postseason success in our data set; the correlation is 0.0014 - in other words, it doesn't exist.

• Since 1972, there have been 27 teams that made the postseason in spite of having below-average offenses. Of these, seven won the World Series. All of these seven had excellent pitching staffs. It's hard to make the playoffs with a below-average offense unless you have an excellent pitching staff.

• Conversely, 20 teams have made the post-season with below-average run prevention. None of them won the World Series, and only two even played for the championship. 16 of 20 lost their first playoff series.

So a great offense may really help at getting you to the post season but without good pitching your chances of taking home the trophy are much smaller. This meshes well with the research published by Rory Paap at the Hardball Times. He found that World Series winners almost always have great pitching and that having a good offense is nice but will rarely bring you home the Commissioner's Trophy.

So as much at it is painful to watch this team's anemic offense on a nightly basis, Sabean and company have put their money into the place where should the Giants make the playoffs it will give them the best chance to win. I would love to see a move to make the offense better but not at the expense of hurting the Giants excellent pitching staff.

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Giants Efficiency in Free Agent Signing Last Year

The Giants this off season made a decision that the would do their best to try to bring back pretty much all the players that brought back the first ever World Series Championship instead of looking out ward on the free agent market.

The only person that they went outside of last years team to sign was Miguel Tejada and well lets just say that hasn't worked out as well as they would have hoped.

I was poking around the internet and stumbled across something interesting from Royals Review that looked at the off season moves made by the Royals and I thought that it would be interesting to adapt it to see how the Giants have done with the free agents they signed over the winter.

Name	bWAR	fWAR	Total Salary (Millions)	Salary After 73 Games (Millions)
Aubrey Huff	-1.3	-0.6	10.00	4.51
Miguel Tejeda	-0.4	-0.7	6.50	2.93
Pat Burrell	0.7	0.5	1.00	0.45
Mike Fontenot	0.5	0.5	1.05	0.47
Guillermo Mota	0.3	0.3	0.93	0.42
Ryan Vogelsong	2.6	1.5	0.42	0.19
Total	2.4	1.5	19.89	8.96

Overall things don't look too bad, the Giants are paying $3.7 million per WAR based on the baseball-reference measure and $5.9 million per WAR based on the fangraphs measure. The $3.7 would be slightly below average and the $5.9 slightly above average.

The two biggest acquisitions have essentially been busts with both producing at below replacement level but luckily for Brain Sabean he was able to find a gem in Ryan Vogelsong who has been excellent while also being a bargain after only signing a minor league contract before the season.

If we take away the Huff deal Sabean looks like a genius, if way take away Vogelsong he looks like a doofus. I guess that is the fine line the general managers walk in Major League Baseball.

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