Projecting the Series: Giants vs Diamondbacks

Opening Day is finally here for the Giants and with it the first installment of my attempts to handicap how the series will play out.

Normally for this I have the statistics from the season in progress to go off of when doing this but seeing as the season hasn't started yet, I will use the ZiPS Projections and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool with lineups from MLB Depth Charts as a proxy and as the season goes along I will weight the actual stats more and more as the season progresses.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Tim Lincecum vs. Ian Kennedy
Madison Bumgarner vs. Daniel Hudson
Matt Cain vs. Josh Collmenter

According to my projections this should be a very closely contested match-up, on a neutral site the Giants would be favored in every game but with the home filed advantage that I have built in the Diamondbacks actually get the slight edge in the first two games. Overall the odds are not much different than a coin flip so hopefully that means some good baseball games.

	D-Backs	Giants	Total Runs
Game 1	52%	48%	6.5
Game 2	51%	49%	6.8
Game 3	47%	53%	7.5
Sweep	12%	12%
2 out 3	38%	38%
1 out 3	38%	38%
0 out 3	12%	12%
Win Series	50%	50%
Lose Series	50%	50%

One other new thing I might do this year is keep track of how well my series projector does against the over/under as a way to test it out against the online sports books to see if maybe I have another career that I can move to down the road.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Projecting the Series: Giants vs Diamondbacks

The Giants are in second place 6 games back, the first place team is coming into town. If the Giants are serious about wanting to make the playoffs this would be a great time to start the winning and the scoring of runs.

Anything less than a series victory and the Giants slim playoff hopes are basically gone and even if they win things still don't look great. The odds are stacked against the Giants both in winning this series and making the playoffs.

You may think come on the Giants have their top 3 pitchers going and should have a good chance, well I have a newsflash for you... The Giants offense is so bad that it cancels out how good their pitching is. For example in the Ryan Vogelsong start they have the projected run differential of a team with a .469 winning percentage even while having a projected runs allowed per game of 3.6!

This offense is not good but man if they could just average 5 runs per game for the month this team (or even 4.5) this team could get back in the race.

Crazier things have happened like the Giants pitchers last season ripping off a historic pitching month but they shouldn't be counted to happen every season.

So anyway I am not optimistic but hey who saw the Giants losing back to back series to the Cubs and Astros even though they were heavily favored in nearly every game?

The Odds:

	Giants	Diamondbacks
Game 1	56%	44%
Game 2	47%	53%
Game 3	38%	62%
Sweep	10%	14%
2 out 3	36%	40%
1 out 3	40%	36%
0 out 3	14%	10%
Win Series	46%	54%
Lose Series	54%	46%

So there is a 46 percent chance that the Giants season will still have a sliver of hope and there is a 10 percent chance that they will have a realistic shot of winning this division. Hey those odds are better than the lottery at least.

P.S.: In case you were wondering what the odds would be if they did come in averaging 5 runs per game I will leave this down here:

	Giants	Diamondbacks
Game 1	74%	26%
Game 2	67%	33%
Game 3	57%	43%
Sweep	28%	4%
2 out 3	45%	23%
1 out 3	23%	45%
0 out 3	4%	28%
Win Series	73%	27%
Lose Series	27%	73%

5 runs a game for a month, that's not too much to ask is it?

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Series Projection

The battle for NL West supremacy gets started tonight with the Giants taking on the Diamondbacks. After a sweep at the hands of the Reds the lead has shrunk to just two games and things are not very comfortable in the division anymore.

Its time for another series and another series projection, the Giants are sending out their best pitchers with the Diamondbacks matching with their top 2 guys and their new acquisition. I feel better with these pitchers going but I am still worried about this offense.

	Giants	Diamondbacks
Game 1	52%	48%
Game 2	47%	53%
Game 3	45%	55%
Sweep	10.92%	14.11%
2 out 3	35.88%	39.09%
1 out 3	39.09%	35.88%
0 out 3	14.11%	10.92%
Win Series	47%	53%
Lose Series	53%	47%

I am getting the feeling that my projection system really doesn't like the Giants and their no offense ways because since I built it this is the 3rd straight series that the Giants according to this should be expected to be underdogs.

Maybe I need to add some sort of "magic" boost for the Giants, either that or they need to figure out a way to score more runs.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Brain Wilson's Control Nearly Does in the Giants

Last night's game was a little more exciting than most of us would have liked. Bruce Bochy made some questionable decisions in the game but in the end, the result was a Giants victory so I won't spend too much time complaining.

There is one thing that I wanted to touch on from the game and that was the final inning of the game. Brian Wilson came in to close the game out and got the first two outs without any issues and then walked Kelly Johnson and Justin Upton.

The walks are killers and I have to say that I am a little nervous with Wilson this year. His walk rate is at its highest since his rookie season in 2006 and it seems like he's trying to be too careful. I don't like it and in this game, his lack of control brought Stephen Drew to the plate with the tying run in scoring position and the winning run on base.

During the at-bat, Wilson uncorked a wild pitch to move the runner to second and third where a base hit could have ended the game. In the end, he got some help from the umpire, as he got a pitch off the outside corner for a called third strike to end the game.

Drew didn't like the call and looking at the pitch fx, he probably had a minor case to make, as the pitch was a couple inches off the plate.

In the end, the Giants won, but not before giving the Diamondbacks every opportunity to steal this game away from them.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Series Preview

The Giants head back to Arizona where they were the hottest team in baseball in the Spring. Hopefully they regain some of that swagger, as they have started off slow on the road this year with a 2-4 So-Cal road trip to start the season.

Probables:

Giants	Diamondbacks
Friday, April 15, 6:40 PM
Matt Cain	Daniel Hudson
1-0, 1.38 ERA, 3.58 tRA	0-2, 3.46 ERA, 2.95 tRA
Cain’s streak of not allowing an earned run finally came to an end Saturday against the Cardinals. He pitched seven strong innings, giving up two runs and got the no decision as the Giants rallied late for the win. The interesting thing this year is that Cain hasn’t been his normal flyball inducing self and has turned himself into a worm burner with 53.8% ground balls this season. That could help going to the HR crazy Chase Field.	Hudson has pitched much better than his 0-2 record would indicate. He has been let down by his offense and, as you can see from his tRA, his ERA is not a mirage. Hudson gave the Giants fits last season and is pitching well to start off this campaign, so I would expect him to keep quieting the Giants offense.
Saturday, April 16, 5:10 PM
Barry Zito	Joe Saunders
0-1, 5.56 ERA, 5.87 tRA	0-1, 6.00 ERA, 6.68 tRA
Zito hasn’t gotten off to a great start. In his first game, it took him an inning to settle down and in his last start, it never looked like he was able to get a handle on his control and it finally hurt him in the sixth inning. I think at this point, Zito needs to get pulled at the first sign of trouble or fatigue, especially once he gets into the fifth or sixth innings.	Saunders had a Zitoesque outing in his last start, giving up six hits and walking five guys in three innings of work. In his first start, he was much better, going six innings and giving up just two runs. He still had control problems, walking three. This will be the first time a lot of the Giants face Saunders, so hopefully they take patient at-bats with his recent control issues.
Sunday, April 17, 1:10 PM
Madison Bumgarner	Barry Enright
0-2, 9.00 ERA, 10.28 tRA	0-1, 6.00 ERA, 5.96 tRA
Bumgarner has had a rough start to the season; he lost his composure against the Padres and then didn’t have his best stuff against the Dodgers. In the Dodger games, he threw 86 pitches but only 47 for strikes, which is uncharacteristic for Bumgarner and his good control. I am still not worried about Bumgarner, but if things don’t change course, this could develop into a problem.	Enright is off to a slow start after a surprising 2010 where he started 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA before an end of season slide. He shut down the Giants in his first meeting, going seven shutout innings. In the subsequent matchups, he didn’t fool anyone, giving up six home runs and ten runs in 11 innings. Enright has struggled to keep the ball in the park, so hopefully the Giants can jump out early on him.

The Diamondbacks are the second highest scoring team in the National league behind only the Reds, but they have struggled to keep their opponents off the board. This was their main problem last season too and they went about trying to beef up a weak bullpen, which has not paid dividends so far.

There is still a great young nucleus of hitters here and some okay starting pitchers, but this is not a complete team yet. With the back end of the Giants rotation getting the turn, this may be a difficult three game series, but hopefully the Giants can "out slug" the Diamondbacks and steak a series win before heading to Denver.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there.

NL West Breakdown

The latest Giants podcast from the Crazy Crabbers, we are joined by @EG110110 and breakdown the division rivals for the upcoming 2011 season.

Listen to internet radio with Crazy Crabbers on Blog Talk Radio

The quick breakdown; the Diamondbacks bullpen is not good, but they have a bunch of young talent on offense, which is led by Justin Upton.

The Rockies are a team to worry about, but there are questions about their supporting cast behind Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Dodgers are a mess and all of us don't have a lot sympathy for them. They have some solid talent in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, but they have some glaring holes (just look at left field) and a bunch of questions that makes them hard to project.

Finally, the Padres, who got a little bit of the short end of the stick on time, but they are rebuilding and will score 300-400 runs all season. Suck on that, Mat Latos.

---

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

Late Giants vs. Diamondbacks Series Preview

A little late getting this out. Maybe getting it out at all will turn the Giants luck around.

I can't figure out this offense at all. It is all or nothing. Man shut out after 3 days of 11 plus runs and that outburst was on the heels of a 3 hit shutout too. Like they say "Giants Baseball... Torture."

The Evolution of The N.L. West

Much has been said about the National League West over the last decade, but most of the talk has been negative with quotes like " The N.L. West is in fact the worst division in the MLB." But if you look at the past decade the N.L. West really hasn't been that bad.

Over the last Decade a National League West team represented the National League in the World Series three times, What makes it so special is that three different teams were in it. The Arizona Diamondbacks in 2000, The San Fransisco Giants in 2002, and the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

In addition the Wild Card winner has been from the N.L. West in 09, 07, 06, and 02. The division has not been dominated by a single team unlike the A.L. East (Yankees) or say the N.L Central (Cardinals). Since 2000 only one team has not won the division (Colorado but they have been to the promised land) and all of the other teams have won it more than once with Arizona and Los Angeles having the most titles with 3, then San Fransisco and San Diego with two.

The current N.L. West features four of the five teams with reccords above .500 and the team with the best record in the Nation League. Try and tell me now that we have the worst division in Baseball now East Coast Bais pushers. The current N.L Wild Card leader comes from our division that team happens to be our San Fransisco Giants.

The division has evolved into the best division in the National League, it is the most complete and balanced top to bottom. The torch Ladies and Gentlemen has been past to the A.L. Central for the worst division in Baseball.

---

If your on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Series Preview

The Giants were swept the last time they faced the Diamondbacks but that was in there desert launch pad and only two games. The Giants are looking to continue to right the ship that over the last couple of series has played poorly including a stretch over over 20 innings where the team couldn't get a run across the plate.

Yesterday the Giants did the improbable and had a come from behind victory, which I think helps them quite a bit because things were looking like trouble if they lost the two games where Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito started.

The Diamondbacks are in the middle of their own troubles after being swept against Colorado and have dropped 4 straight. This is a match-up against two teams that have much higher expectations then the results thus far have shown this season.

The Crazy Crab Tells the Truth

Hank Schulman recently sat down with Brian Sabean to discuss how things have gone so far this season. Not much really came out of that interview so I, the crazy crab will fill in and give the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Giants fans do not deserve nor should they have to put up with the sugar coating and dancing around the issues that Brian Sabean does during these interviews.

Q: What has surprised you during the first part of the season, positively and negatively?