One of these isn't like the other...

Grant at McCovey Chronicles took a look at the Giants history of evaluating hitters and in the process posted a table that I want to take a look at further.

Giants since 2005:

2005: .319 on-base percentage (29th out of 30 teams), .714 OPS (28th), 86 OPS+ (29th), 649 runs scored (29th)

2006: .324 on-base percentage (28th), .746 OPS (25th), 90 OPS+ (24th), 746 runs scored (24th)

2007: .322 on-base percentage (28th), .708 OPS (30th), 82 OPS+ (30th), 683 runs scored (29th)

2008: .321 on-base percentage (25th), .703 OPS (28th), 83 OPS+ (29th), 640 runs scored (29th)

2009: .309 on-base percentage (30th), .699 OPS (30th), 82 OPS+ (30th), 657 runs scored (26th)

2010: .321 on-base percentage (22nd), .729 OPS (17th), 98 OPS+ (15th), 697 runs scored (17th)

2011: .303 on-base percentage (29th), .671 OPS (27th), 89 OPS+ (25th), 570 runs scored (29th)

One of the things that is harped upon is that you need to look at the bigger picture and not be fooled by small sample sizes. Is this the case here with Brian Sabean's track record of building an offense?

Excluding the 2010 lightening in a bottle year the best the Giants have ranked is 24th in any of the above offensive categories since 2005. The averages (including 2010) over the span are: 27th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 26th in OPS+, and 26th in runs scored.

Yikes.

It is hard to imagine that the offense will have a repeat performance of last season's historically bad team (seriously they were one of the worst offensive teams in the history of the proud franchise) but with this now laid out is it realistic to expect that this team will resemble a league average offense?

I really don't think so and with the Giants underwhelming off season moves that didn't do much to beef up the offense it will take some more lightening in a bottle and some career years to get back to that level.

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3 ways the Giants could have signed Carlos Beltran

The big bat on just about every Giants fan Christmas list just signed with the Cardinals for a very reasonable 2 year $26 million deal. When the news of the years and money involved broke over twitter, a justified freak out session broke out among Giants fans, why couldn't the Giants swing this deal?

It would have been understandable if the Giants didn't want to go three or even four years with the aging slugger but two years was right in the Giants sweet spot. The Giants have window to compete with their pitching and getting Beltran on a two year deal would have opened that up a little bit further without hurting the long term out look.

Giants Extend Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy

Well I can't say that this news was unexpected, this was pretty much going to happen no matter what baring some sort of major scandal.

While I have a certain times not been thrilled with both of these guys (Brian Sabean more than Bruce Bochy) they both have some good points that are nice to have around.

Get ready for more bad middle tier free agent signings because the rainy day fund means top tier talent off limits. Get ready for more crazy lineup shuffles based on small sample fluxuations and prospect mishandling. It should be another maddening couple of seasons but hey maybe lightening in a bottle can be caught again.

I could have more outrage but it is hard to get mad about something that you know is coming. This announcement is like when Monday rolls around after a fun weekend, you knew it was coming, it sucks but you're aren't really mad about it.

There we go Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, they are like a case of the Monday's. If only this announcement came yesterday.

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The Giants Misguided Way to Build a Baseball Club

Every Giants fan needs to chip in to send Willie Bloomquist a nice gift basket. Bloomquist, by choosing Arizona over San Francisco recently, saved Brain Sabean from himself.

This is the type of thing that really boggles my mind and makes me question if Sabean knows what he is doing when he is building a baseball team.

Let's take a look at what he has done thus far this off-season.

He signed Javier Lopez to a two year $9 million contract. He picked up Jeremy Affeldt's $5 million option. He nearly signed Willie Bloomquist to a two year $4.6 million deal.

Do you know what the fWAR was for these players last year was?

A combined 1.2!

Sabean wants to give a combined $11.8 million to these guys who have a market value of around $5.4 million dollars. That's right he wanted to pay more than double what the market price for what these guys produced last season!

Look I would rather have a nice filet mignon with caned/frozen veggies than a plate full of fresh organic vegetables with no meat at all. If the team isn't going to spend like the Phillies/Red Sox/Yankees I can do with cheaper options on the side (read rookies that you plug in as a back up infielder or loogy) if that means that you go after a big bat that can bring this horrid offense from league worst to middle of the road.

This pitching staff and this fan base deserve better.

You might not have noticed but the honeymoon period that I gave to Sabean after winning the World Series is over. I am fed up with the way that he builds a ball club and I am fed up with the Giants ownership crying poor when they are selling out the stadium every game and are one of the highest revenue teams in baseball.

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Hot Stove: Giants Budget Math Looks Bleak

With the signing of Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez the MLB Hot Stove season has officially kicked off for the Giants. With that in mind I think it is a good time to take a look at how much of the Giants budget will be left to spend on Free Agents this off season.

To get an idea I pulled up the Giants from Cot's Contracts and took a look at what MLB Trade Rumors projects for the Giants arbitration eligible players to get a rough estimate of where things will be for next year.

Here is the table with the 2012 salaries with an assumed $130 million budget:

Player	Salary	Budget Remaining
Lincecum, Tim	$    19.20	$  110.80
Zito, Barry	$    19.00	$    91.80
Cain, Matt	$    15.33	$    76.47
Rowand, Aaron	$    13.60	$    62.87
Huff, Aubrey	$    10.00	$    52.87
Wilson, Brian	$       8.50	$    44.37
Sanchez, Freddy	$       6.00	$    38.37
Sanchez, Jonathan	$       5.20	$    33.17
Affeldt, Jeremy	$       5.00	$    28.17
Lopez, Javier	$       4.25	$    23.92
Sandoval, Pablo	$       3.20	$    20.72
Jeff Keppinger	$       2.70	$    18.02
Torres, Andres	$       2.50	$    15.52
Ryan Vogelsong	$       2.50	$    13.02
Ramirez, Ramon S.	$       2.30	$    10.72
Casilla, Santiago	$       1.90	$       8.82
Fontenot, Mike	$       1.30	$       7.52
Romo, Sergio	$       1.30	$       6.22
Schierholtz, Nate	$       1.20	$       5.02
Whiteside, Eli	$       0.70	$       4.32
Burriss, Emmanuel	$       0.60	$       3.72
Posey, Buster	$       0.50	$       3.22
Bumgarner, Madison	$       0.45	$       2.77
Runzler, Dan	$       0.45	$       2.32
Belt, Brandon	$       0.45	$       1.87
Chris Stewart	$       0.45	$       1.42

Guys in green are arbitration eligible who I expect to come back, guys in yellow are arbitration eligible and are candidates for not having a contract tendered to them. The guys in white have a contract already for next season or are under team control still. Finally there is Aaron Rowand who was released but still owed $13 million for next season and I am pretty sure counts against the Giants budget.

If everyone comes back that leaves about $1.5 million for Free Agent Activities. If the non-tender candidates don't come back that leaves about $12 million for Free Agents. If the partners that control the team are feeling generous and don't count Rowand's money owed to him this season and the non-tender candidates don't come back the Giants have about $25 million left for Free Agents.

The last issue is what the final number will be for the budget. For this exercise I have assumed $130 million but the more realistic number is a small increase from this seasons $122 million. If that is the case the chances of getting a big free agent are nearly zero, and the chance of getting more than one mid-tier free agent seem slim as well with around $118 already committed.

We will see how Brain Sabean deals with this situation, barring a big deal that moves a high priced pitcher or a change of heart from management this off season won't be one that offers any big name quick fixes.

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If Huff Was Out of Shape, Why Did He Play Everyday?

“He got himself in a funk. And what went on might have been a residual effect of maybe not doing enough during the off-season. And he knows that.” - Brian Sabean

This wasn't exactly a brand new bomb that dropped during the end of the season press conference but now that the cat is out of the bag it raises a bunch of questions that make the Giants management kind of look like idiots.

If Huff was so out of shape why did he continue to play everyday? Why did he get such a long rope after not putting in the work in the off-season? Were there any sorts of repercussions or punishments for him not coming into camp in shape?

I bet the answers can be summed up like this:

1. Because he is a proven vet.
2. He has a track record of success and we don't let things like poor conditioning and an obvious drop in productivity sway us.
3. Of course not. He is a veteran and they have free reign to do what he wants.

I guess I appreciate the honesty that Sabean showed in at least admitting that Huff wasn't in the best of shape this year but it smacks of an excuse for the player that he gave a fairly large contract to that makes the front office look stupid.

It is like he is trying to push blame on to Huff, he is saying "Hey it's not my fault he sucked. He didn't come into the season prepared."

Well if that was the case and he wasn't in baseball shape you could have done something about it. I don't know... maybe something like not playing him when it was fairly obvious that he was something that dragged the team down.

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Jeff Keppinger Trade Analysis

Late July means it is trade season and the first move of the year for the Giants is getting second baseman Jeff Keppinger from the Houston Astros.

In the deal the Giants sent pitchers Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel the other way and my first inclination is that this is a solid trade but lets take a deeper look on how this one grades out.

Keppinger's value:

Keppinger is putting up a nice year with a .307/ .320/ .436 line, it is good enough for an above average wOBA of .326 which would put him among the top half of Giants hitters this season. He doesn't walk much (just a 2.4% walk rate) but he also doesn't strike out much at all (4.1%).

He will put the ball in play and he will occasionally hit one over the fence. I imagine that he will end up being the guy in the 2 spot for the Giants for the remainder of the year.

His defense is iffy but I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say it is average at 2nd base and bad at short stop.

Taking all of this into account and I think you have a 1.5 to 2 win player. Over the remaining 65 games he will probably be worth about 0.7 to 1 win and will be paid approximately 900k. That leaves a surplus value of about $3.1 million. In addition he is arbitration eligible for next season which if we again say about 1.5 wins above replacement at 80% of market value he has another $1.5 million in surplus value.

All said the Giants got over $4.5 million in surplus value in this deal.

What they gave up:

The Giants gave up a couple of low tier prospects. Both Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel would be fringe bullpen guys and would be rated as C prospects at best. Stoffel at 22 would be worth about $2.1 million in trade value with Sosa at 25 being worth about $1.5 million in trade value.

Neither of these guys pictured to be impact arms in a stocked bullpen and have cumulative value of about $3.6 million in trade value.

Conclusion:


This seems to be a very solid trade for the Giants. They got a good replacement at a position that was looking pretty barren (this allows Mike Fontenot to move over to short for more games) at a pretty low cost. They didn't have to over pay and in fact might have gotten a pretty good deal in that in my calculations came out a head by about a million dollars.

I like this move and can't find anything to complain about. Well done Brian Sabean/

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Why Can't the Giants Score Runs?

The Giants have scored the fewest runs in the Majors this season and are on pace to be among the lowest scoring teams in the clubs 128 years of existence. So why can't the team score runs?

I wonder what an unnamed Giants official might say. Luckily, the Boston Globe got the low down for us, "We need RBI bats. That’s what we’re looking for right now."

Wow, I can't believe it took them this long to think of this. It's not that they have the fourth lowest OBP in the Majors or that they have the sixth lowest slugging percentage or that they are battling the Mariners for the lowest wRC+ in the Majors.

Poor Offense Shouldn't Doom Giants

The Giants offense isn't good. Some might even say historically bad. So does that mean that they are doomed and no chance at post season immortality?

As much as the pessimist in me wants to say yes the data just doesn't seem to support that finding.

Obsessive Giants Compulsive in a post last night brought to our attention some very interesting research done previously by Baseball Prospectus. Here are some of his very interesting nuggets but read the whole thing because there is lots of good stuff there:

• There is literally no relationship between regular-season offense and postseason success in our data set; the correlation is 0.0014 - in other words, it doesn't exist.

• Since 1972, there have been 27 teams that made the postseason in spite of having below-average offenses. Of these, seven won the World Series. All of these seven had excellent pitching staffs. It's hard to make the playoffs with a below-average offense unless you have an excellent pitching staff.

• Conversely, 20 teams have made the post-season with below-average run prevention. None of them won the World Series, and only two even played for the championship. 16 of 20 lost their first playoff series.

So a great offense may really help at getting you to the post season but without good pitching your chances of taking home the trophy are much smaller. This meshes well with the research published by Rory Paap at the Hardball Times. He found that World Series winners almost always have great pitching and that having a good offense is nice but will rarely bring you home the Commissioner's Trophy.

So as much at it is painful to watch this team's anemic offense on a nightly basis, Sabean and company have put their money into the place where should the Giants make the playoffs it will give them the best chance to win. I would love to see a move to make the offense better but not at the expense of hurting the Giants excellent pitching staff.

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Giants Efficiency in Free Agent Signing Last Year

The Giants this off season made a decision that the would do their best to try to bring back pretty much all the players that brought back the first ever World Series Championship instead of looking out ward on the free agent market.

The only person that they went outside of last years team to sign was Miguel Tejada and well lets just say that hasn't worked out as well as they would have hoped.

I was poking around the internet and stumbled across something interesting from Royals Review that looked at the off season moves made by the Royals and I thought that it would be interesting to adapt it to see how the Giants have done with the free agents they signed over the winter.

Name	bWAR	fWAR	Total Salary (Millions)	Salary After 73 Games (Millions)
Aubrey Huff	-1.3	-0.6	10.00	4.51
Miguel Tejeda	-0.4	-0.7	6.50	2.93
Pat Burrell	0.7	0.5	1.00	0.45
Mike Fontenot	0.5	0.5	1.05	0.47
Guillermo Mota	0.3	0.3	0.93	0.42
Ryan Vogelsong	2.6	1.5	0.42	0.19
Total	2.4	1.5	19.89	8.96

Overall things don't look too bad, the Giants are paying $3.7 million per WAR based on the baseball-reference measure and $5.9 million per WAR based on the fangraphs measure. The $3.7 would be slightly below average and the $5.9 slightly above average.

The two biggest acquisitions have essentially been busts with both producing at below replacement level but luckily for Brain Sabean he was able to find a gem in Ryan Vogelsong who has been excellent while also being a bargain after only signing a minor league contract before the season.

If we take away the Huff deal Sabean looks like a genius, if way take away Vogelsong he looks like a doofus. I guess that is the fine line the general managers walk in Major League Baseball.

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Taking the cautious route with Brandon Belt

Rory Paap (paapfly.com) and I had a discussion about when Brandon Belt should be brought up to the big leagues on Twitter and I wanted to expand on this a little further.

My main thought, which I still stand by, is that pushing him to the next level is a much greater risk than potentially holding him back a little too long. In my opinion, there is a huge potential downside to rushing him to the majors that cannot be overlooked. The only way it makes sense to deviate from this plan is if, without a doubt, Brandon Belt is better than Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff or Cody Ross.

Last year at AA Richmond, Belt put up a MLE of .271/.334/.473, which is a great line, but it still isn't without a doubt superior to what Burrell did with the Giants; he hit .266/ 364/ 509. The last thing we should do is put too much weight on Spring Training. Right now, Burrell and Belt are roughly equal offensively and until the scale is tilted in Belt's favor, the risk outweighs the reward for bringing him up.

If he's brought up too early, his confidence could be shaken if he runs into a slump. He may not get the same regular playing time and yo-yoed like so many Giants prospects before him, which could hurt his development. The fans may turn on him if he doesn't light the world on fire right from the get go (ala Matt Wieters; it's a Bruce Jenkins article waiting to happen). There is the possibility that he may not have what it takes to perform at the major league level and flames out.

If he is left in AAA and continues knocking the cover off the ball for a month and he forces his way up in a month, then he has lost a month in the majors and thats it (which helps in the long run financially anyway), but if any of the other problems creep in, the pressure on him and the team is much bigger. Penciling him into the lineup in the middle of a slump isn't a big deal in Fresno but could be in San Francisco where the expectations have never been higher.

On top of the performance questions, there is the matter of determining what the Giants already have on their roster and having to give up one of those spots to Belt. If Brandon Belt hits up to his expectations, he deserves playing time, but if he doesn't, then it's possible that sticking with Pat Burrell (the assumed odd man out) is the way to go.

Both are projected by Zips to have similar offensive numbers, so if Burrell hits like he did for the Giants in 2010 and Belt stumbles, the Giants have lost that important offensive production.

Taking the safe route may not endear anyone to Brian Sabean, but it's the right move, it's the smart move, and it's the move the Giants front office is likely to take.

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Randy Winn's Giant Debut

I was flipping through my copy of "San Francisco Giants: 50 Years" and was reliving some great Giants memories. Of all the great performances chronicled in the book, the one that I had lost to time was the amazing run that Randy Winn had in his amazing two month stretch with the Giants in 2005.

I feel bad that I had let his last few seasons cloud my judgement of him. I remembered him being a glove first right fielder who could give you a decent at-bat, but wasn't exactly an offensive threat.

If any of you are like me, that impression will forever be changed. In his first 58 games with the Giants, Winn put on an offensive show.

Before we get to0 deep, lets give a little back story. The 2005 season was a down year in the NL West, with a bunch of mediocre teams battling it out to the end. The Bruce Bochy-led Padres would win the division that year with 82 wins. At the trade deadline, the Giants were a pathetic 45-59, but only 5.5 games out of first place.

With Barry Bonds on the shelf with a knee injury, the Giants were hurting for offense. Brian Sabean pulled the trigger on a trade with the Seattle Mariners that sent Winn to the Giants for Yorvit Torrealba and Jesse Foppert.

To put it simply, Winn did not disappoint.

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2005	SFG	58	231	39	83	22	5	14	26	7	11	38	.359	.391	.680	1.071	173

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/8/2011.

In 58 games, Winn carried the Giants. They were a bad team and he single-handedly kept them in the race for the playoffs. With Winn in tow, the Giants improved from a .432 winning percentage to a .517 winning percentage. If we extrapolate his stint with the Giants to 162 games played, it would be one of the best in the franchise's storied history. He would have hit 62 doubles, 14 triples and 40 home runs.

In his third of a season with the Giants, he accumulated 3.9 wins above replacement. To put that in perspective, if he had done that over a full season, it would be worth nearly 11 wins.

Randy Winn; a tip of the hat is in order for that amazing stretch of baseball.

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Standing pat? No, more like a constant evolution

One of the story lines this offseason and headed into the 2011 season is the Giants stood pat and didn't do anything to get better. While this is true in the technical sense, if you look back to the begining of last season, you can see that this team has done quite a bit to get better.

Here is the opening Day batting order for the Giants.

Batting	OPS+
Aaron Rowand CF	75
Edgar Renteria SS	90
Pablo Sandoval 3B	95
Aubrey Huff 1B	138
Mark DeRosa LF	46
Bengie Molina C	74
John Bowker RF	62
Juan Uribe 2B	99

It features one player that posted an OPS+ better then league average with 4 players that were 25% worse than league average at their position. That's not a good hitting lineup and if that didn't change, there is no way the Giants win the NL West last season.

Here is a batting order from the end of the season.

Batting	OPS+
Andres Torres CF	119
Freddy Sanchez 2B	98
Aubrey Huff 1B	138
Buster Posey C	129
Pat Burrell LF	132
Juan Uribe SS	99
Cody Ross RF	118
Pablo Sandoval 3B	95

There is quite a large difference here in terms of players and ability to hit at a league average level or better. The only carryovers from oppening day are Huff, Uribe, and Sandoval. Everyone else had been banished to the bench or was only a part-time player.

The Giants now have five hitters that are better than average at their position, with the worst number posted by Sandoval and that's only 5% worse than league average. Some of the changes were petty drastic. Lets take a look:

Changing Torres for Rowand:

Rowand had his worst season of his career, while Torres had one of his best. The Giants went from a hitter who was 25% below average to a hitter that was 19% above average while playing elite defense. This is a major upgrade.

Changing Posey for Molina:

Molina was a good Giant but he doesn't really compare with Posey. Molina was 26% below average, while Posey was 29% above average. That is a huge swing at a premium position.

Changing Burrell for DeRosa (Or anyone healthy for DeRosa):

DeRosa was hurt and it killed his value. With his wrist injury, he had almost no power and was a shell of his former self. Burrell was a gem of a signing and resurected his career in San Francisco. This was a big upgrade for 2010, but I am not sure that it will be as big going into the future if DeRosa is back to full health. A 100% DeRosa would be a big upgrade over his injured self.

Changing Ross for Bowker:

It pains me to say this because I am a big Bowker supporter, but in his stint with the Giants, he did not play well and it's a nice upgarde to have Cody Ross in the outfield. John Bowker may one day produce at an average Major League level but he hasn't done that yet. Ross has shown the ability to do that and better.

When you put all of these moves together, you go from a bad offensive team to one that is slightly above average. That is a big difference and it was done over the course of the season and is a continual work in progress. Walt Disney said that "Disneyland will never be finished" and I have to think that Brian Sabean has that same mentality about how he builds his baseball teams.

People can say the Giants stood pat in the offseason, but it should be known that things will remain fluid with the Giants constantly changing and looking for ways to get marginally better. Whether that means using in-house options or digging through the scrap heap of other teams to turn another teams trash into a treasure made by Tiffany's remains to be seen.

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