Showing posts with label Bruce Bochy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bruce Bochy. Show all posts

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Wilson's Selfishness Nearly Costs the Giants a Win


With Brian Wilson throwing a 1-0 slider to Tyler Colvin something went wrong. As of this writing what exactly it is is still uncertain, but with Wilson's history it is probably something to do with his back or oblique apparently it is his ankle that he hurt.

After catching the pitch Buster Posey noticed something wasn't quite right and called for the trainers to come out and look at him. Wilson threw a practice pitch, that according to Jon Miller, came in there at 84 mph, well below his normal stuff.

Wilson, Giants trainer Dave Groeschner, and Bruce Bochy huddled on the mound a little longer but I guess Wilson was able to convince them he was okay and to continue to pitch.

Well it became pretty obvious that he was not okay after a few short pitches where he lost 5 mph off of each of his pitches. His fastball went from 93-94 to having to really labor to get up to 90 mph, his slider/cutter went from 88-90 to 83-86.


It is pretty obvious from this speed chart that Wilson had lost stuff and wasn't right.

All of this while the bases were loaded and the Giants clung to a 3 run lead.

He proceeded to walk Colvin, cutting the lead to 2 and bringing up Marco Scutaro. At this point it was pretty obvious that Wilson wasn't right. The coaches should have pulled him, better yet he should have done the thing that would have given his team the best chance of winning by bringing in a pitcher who wasn't trying to pitch through an injury.

Wilson got away with it this time, but his decision was selfish. He may have thought that it was the "tough" thing to do but in reality it put his team at a disadvantage and could have cost the team a victory.

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Monday, April 9, 2012

Bochy says Belt will play everyday, promptly benches Belt


So the Giants lineups for today's Giants game were posted and the name that is surprisingly missing is Brandon Belt. Belt hasn't gotten off to a hot start going 1 for 10 against Arizona with 5 strikeouts but after the comments made by Bochy after the game this lineup made me do a double take.

Here is what Alex Pavolic of the Bay Area News Group reported in his blog after yesterday's game:
Een with Belt’s slow start, Bochy said he has no concerns about the first baseman, who rode the shuttle from San Francisco to Fresno much of his rookie season.

“He’s going to be out there,” Bochy said. “That’s what you do at this point, you throw these guys out there.”
April 8th, "don't worry Belt's going to play through his slump We haven't lost confidence in him." April 9th "Belt's not hitting well, so let's go with the vastly superior Huff with his 2 for 11 line. After all that's double the number of hits!"

What a difference a night's sleep makes.

Small Print: I know that one day off means nothing but when it comes to Brandon Belt and being jerked around between starting and not starting this is a sensitive subject. When it was talked about that Belt would be a platoon player it was pointed out that he would start the first five games and then Bochy reiterated the point with his post game comments, this year the team was going to stick with Belt. I sure hope that continues to be the case but this kind of action makes me nervous.

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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Giants Extend Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy




Well I can't say that this news was unexpected, this was pretty much going to happen no matter what baring some sort of major scandal.

While I have a certain times not been thrilled with both of these guys (Brian Sabean more than Bruce Bochy) they both have some good points that are nice to have around.

Get ready for more bad middle tier free agent signings because the rainy day fund means top tier talent off limits. Get ready for more crazy lineup shuffles based on small sample fluxuations and prospect mishandling. It should be another maddening couple of seasons but hey maybe lightening in a bottle can be caught again.

I could have more outrage but it is hard to get mad about something that you know is coming. This announcement is like when Monday rolls around after a fun weekend, you knew it was coming, it sucks but you're aren't really mad about it.

There we go Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, they are like a case of the Monday's. If only this announcement came yesterday.

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Friday, September 30, 2011

If Huff Was Out of Shape, Why Did He Play Everyday?


“He got himself in a funk. And what went on might have been a residual effect of maybe not doing enough during the off-season. And he knows that.” - Brian Sabean

This wasn't exactly a brand new bomb that dropped during the end of the season press conference but now that the cat is out of the bag it raises a bunch of questions that make the Giants management kind of look like idiots.

If Huff was so out of shape why did he continue to play everyday? Why did he get such a long rope after not putting in the work in the off-season? Were there any sorts of repercussions or punishments for him not coming into camp in shape?

I bet the answers can be summed up like this:
  1. Because he is a proven vet.
  2. He has a track record of success and we don't let things like poor conditioning and an obvious drop in productivity sway us.
  3. Of course not. He is a veteran and they have free reign to do what he wants.
I guess I appreciate the honesty that Sabean showed in at least admitting that Huff wasn't in the best of shape this year but it smacks of an excuse for the player that he gave a fairly large contract to that makes the front office look stupid.

It is like he is trying to push blame on to Huff, he is saying "Hey it's not my fault he sucked. He didn't come into the season prepared."

Well if that was the case and he wasn't in baseball shape you could have done something about it. I don't know... maybe something like not playing him when it was fairly obvious that he was something that dragged the team down.

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Friday, August 5, 2011

EXCLUSIVE! Bruce Bochy Book Chapter on Managing Rookies

Bruce Bochy is known for his veteran love. He sticks with his guys and plays them through thick or thin. He doesn't trust rookies and looks for every reason to pull them out of the starting lineup.

He is such a believer in his system (Guaranteed to win you a World Series Title!) that he is coming out with a book that you can buy real soon. The tome is titled "It Gets Better with Age" and it will be sold at his website http://www.grittyvets.com.

The publisher was kind enough to send me an advanced copy and allow me to excerpt a chapter. There was a ton of good stuff in there ranging from lineup construction (lots of wine and match up stats), to bullpen management, to the running of a major league clubhouse.

For your pleasure I went with something a little more timely with Brandon Belt going down to the minor leagues, I am going to share with you his philosophy on developing rookies.

"Get Off My Lawn! How to Handle Kids Who Don't Have Gray Hair":

Welcome guys, pull up a chair grab a beer if you need one. A little birdy told me that you may have an issue with a young guy being placed on your team by the General Manager. Now don't be scared, because Uncle Bruce is here to help you manage the situation.

In my many years at the helm of Major League ball clubs I have distilled the managing of these young whippersnappers to an 8 Step program. If you follow this method closely you can make through the turbulent phase of every season when it seems like the General Manager is always pushing these young guys on you.

With this method you can develop the young guys while not hurting the production of your all important veteran players.

Step 1 for managing a rookie:

Bring up a rising young prospect from the farm and have him sit on the bench for the first couple of days to get used to the ebb and flow of Big League baseball. The last thing that you would want to do is throw a guy right into the fire. He needs to watch how the veterans prepare for the game.

This is the key make sure that as much of the grit rubs off on the young kid. He may have some AAA seasoning but he doesn't have the literal seasoning of rubbing elbows with the greats that came before him.

Continue to step 2.

Step 2 for managing a rookie:

Make sure his first start is against a tough pitcher in a hostile environment if possible.

This may sound cruel but baseball is a cruel sport. You can't hold the hand of these rookies forever. I mean you might was well put him in the toughest situation possible to see how he responds. If he fails to go all Will Clark in his first game you are going to need to keep a really close eye on him. If he is going to be a All-Star he will hit right away if he doesn't that's probably because he isn't ready.

Continue to step 3.

Step 3 for managing a rookie:

Let the kid play for a couple of weeks take very careful notice of how he does in those 30-50 plate appearances that will tell you just about everything you need to know about how the kid will play in the Major Leagues.

During this evaluation phase be sure to be as critical as possible with him. He needs to know his role. Just to keep him on his toes make him play a position that is foreign to him to see how he responds.

Continue to step 4.

Step 4 for managing a rookie:

Once you've had the opportunity to evaluate the kid the steps branch off in 2 different paths. For kids who show the slightest signs of struggle (about 95 percent of all rookies will fall in this category) proceed to step 4A. If the rookie is doing well (unlikely) go to 4B.

A) If the kid struggles or shows any signs of platoon splits in his first 2 weeks then my experience says that he isn't ready for the big show and he should promptly be benched. It's sad but true that rookies don't know how to work through slumps; they just don't have the proven track record like veterans and true gamers.

Continue to step 5A.

B) If the kid does ok we will keep an eye on him but still bench him for a few days to make sure he doesn't get a big head.

Continue to step 5B.

Step 5 for managing a rookie:

A) Give the struggling rookie spot starts every other week while pinch hitting him 2 times a week against the toughest relievers, if he doesn't start hitting .500 he is done and needs more seasoning and dues paying in the minors.

Send the rookie back to the minors or bench him for the foreseeable future and proceed to step 1 if he ever comes back.

B) Continue to give the rookie who is playing well only 3-4 starts per week to keep his young legs fresh, remember he doesn't have 15 years experience yet and his body hasn't built any tolerance for the major league grind.

Continue to step 6.

Step 6 for managing a rookie:

If the rookie shows any sign of struggle go directly to step 5A. The slightest delay in doing this could ruin a promising prospect so be vigilant.

You must look carefully for signs of fatigue or struggle, even wiping ones forehead on a hot muggy day in Cincinnati might be sign of breaking down. It is a fact that he will struggle, it is a certainty that has never been disproven in my long and illustrious career managing.. It is almost impossible for someone under the age of 30 has ever succeeded in baseball for extended periods of time.

If no signs of struggle continue to step 7.

Step 7 for managing a rookie:

Bench the kid anyway for a week as a preemptive measure against the coming failure. You've got to keep your veterans fresh also for when the rookie does eventually struggle.

If he struggles after the week off proceed to step 5A.

If he continues to play well continue to step 8.

Step 8 for managing a rookie:

Congratulations you may have found a big leaguer. The kid might be ready for the majors but it is still not guaranteed. Watch his every move and be quick to pull the plug at the first trip up.

He is slowly building a track record, but tread carefully rookies are known to have sophomore slumps which we will go over in the next chapter titled "Not a Rookie, but Still Not a Veteran: How to Handle the Tween Years"

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

How Much Does a Sub-Optimal Lineup Cost the Giants


Almost everyday, without fail, when the Giants lineup is posted, there is something to complain about. Whether it is Aaron Rowand getting a start against a right handed pitcher or Miguel Tejada hitting second, there is usually something there to get under your skin.

The standard thing to say is that the day-to-day lineup isn't that big of a deal. For most teams, you are looking at about ten to 15 runs difference over the course of the season, but what about the Giants this year?

Friday, June 24, 2011

The Giants Deserving All-Stars

Due to the Giants being the defending National League Champions Bruce Bochy has the honor of being the skipper for the NL All-Star team. One of the perks that comes along with that is picking the reserves and pitchers for the team.

According to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News he is going to "be a little biased" and try to give as many Giants as possible a shot at being on the team.

So who on this team is deserving to be an All-Star?

Here are the Giants position players, with their WAR to date and their rank for their position:

Pos
Player
WAR
Rank
C
1.6
5
C
0.1
25
1B
-0.6
26
2B
1.0
8
SS
0.5
14
SS
0.2
17
SS
Manny Burris
-0.4
27
SS/3B
-0.5
28
3B
1.4
4
OF
1.2
31
OF
1.0
37
OF
0.7
47
OF
0.7
49
OF
0.3
58

The pickings are pretty slim. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez would likely be headed to the All-Star game if they both weren't out with major injuries. After that only Sandoval is left with a respectable ranking at his given position.

So if Bochy is going to pick a position player from the Giants I would say that it has to be Sandoval and that is really only a defensible choice because 3B in the National League this season is especially weak.

Next let's look at the pitchers. I will do the same thing as I did for the position players but I will include both the Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR and rank numbers because for pitchers they calculate them differently and there is a pretty large divergence.

Fangraphs:

Pos
Player
WAR
Rank
SP
2.6
7
SP
2.1
11
SP
2.0
12
SP
1.6
23
SP
1.0
46
RP
0.9
10
RP
0.7
16
RP
0.4
31

Baseball-Reference:

Pos
Player
WAR
Rank
SP
Ryan Vogelsong
3.0
8
SP
Matt Cain
2.0
17
SP
Tim Lincecum
1.9
19
SP
Jonathan Sanchez
1.1
40
SP
Madison Bumgarner
0.7
50
RP
Brian Wilson
1.3
10
RP
1.1
17
RP
Javier Lopez
1.0
19
RP
Sergio Romo
0.8
31

The thing that I notice when looking at this is that man the Giants have some really good pitching and it is deep. No other team had all 5 of their starters in the top 50 for WAR in either measure (although the Phillies pitchers do occupy the top 3).

If Bochy is going to be biased this is where he can get away with some home cooking.

For the starters I would say that Lincecum, Cain and Vogelsong would all be justifiable choices and for the relievers Wilson, Romo and Lopez all have a case.

If I were to take a guess as to who would be the guys selected by Bochy I would say that he takes 4 Giants and that he goes with Sandoval (partial pay back for '09 snub), Lincecum, Vogelsong (how could he pass him up with his story and out of no where excellence) and Wilson. Between now and July 3rd things could change but this is my gut feeling.

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Thursday, May 19, 2011

Bochy's Lack of Faith in Romo


Sergio Romo got to face one batter last night. He gave up a soft single to Matt Kemp and was quickly replaced by Brain Wilson.

The reasoning behind this is Bruce Bochy wanted to get Wilson in the game. Andrew Baggerly reported in his post game notes:
Bochy acknowledged that Wilson might have been rusty. But he hadn’t used his closer on the entire road trip, and he wanted to get him in this game. He didn’t want the Dodgers to tie it in the eighth, potentially, and then end up bypassing his closer entirely. So Bochy tabbed Wilson for his first four-out save chance of the season
With two outs in the ninth and a runner on, why did he even let Romo face a batter? Why not just bring in Wilson for the four out save right away?

From my armchair many miles removed from the situation, it seems that Bochy is lacking faith in his right hander and is grasping for explanations for his quick hook. In the end, I am glad that it worked out, but geez, that game was way too close for comfort.

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Monday, May 16, 2011

The Tale of Sergio Romo’s Plight


Sit back boys and girls and listen to the story I am about to tell. It is the sad story of a manager and his talented but misunderstood relief pitcher.

A long, long time ago there in a village on the shores of the great bay that a band of misfits called home. They were led by a large headed man called Bruce who had brought them great success beyond their wildest dreams but alas; there was still one member of the tribe who didn’t quite fit in.

His name was Sergio.

Sergio was a "happy go lucky" kind of guy. He was always smiling and when he made the final out of an inning, he would jump for joy as he galloped into the dugout. But behind all of this joy was a deep misunderstanding.

The fans who congregated to watch the misfits didn’t appreciate his talents. They forgot his many excellent exploits and only remembered on a few high profile homeruns that hostile invaders had hit off of him.

The fans had come to expect that the misfits relief pitchers would all be knights who flung balls in the upper 90’s and had never seen a wizard who made the ball dance and bend quite like this and didn’t know what to do.

The fans were distrustful of this man who dealt with magical ball movement and only wanted to see the knights face off against opponents when the village came under siege.

Chief Bruce, who had led the men to many great victories, was a supporter of the wizard Sergio but one day he, too, fell under this spell of doubt and began to not call on his wizard during battle.

This change of action made Sergio sad; he was still vanquishing enemies at an elite rate. His defense independent slayings (FIP) were at levels that most mere mortals couldn’t comprehend (1.49) and was the best among the band of misfits. He did the best at killing opponents before they could put the village’s defense to the test (13.97 k/9), while allowing the fewest free passes across the moat (0.93 bb/9).

Sergio thought that he was doing everything right in helping to defend the village. He was among the best relief pitchers in the realm but alas, in the heat of the most intense battles time and time again, he was not called upon to fight.

Poor Sergio the bending ball throwing wizard was misunderstood.

To be continued…

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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Taking Lemons and Making Lemonade: Optimizing the Giants Lineup


With the Giants hurt by injuries to Andres Torres and Cody Ross, the biggest question has to do with the lineup.

In the grand scheme of things, the makeup of a lineup isn't that important. It accounts for maybe 5-10 runs over the course of a season and having a less than perfect lineup for just a stretch while a player is down with injury isn't that big of a deal. Still, it's something that we all obsesses over and the reaction when Aaron Rowand or Miguel Tejada is penciled in on top is over the top.

Lineup optimization has been studied many times and the general consensus is the common sense approach is okay but it could be a little better. Here is a great summary from Beyond the Boxscore from the research done by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin in "The Book:"

In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters.
So if we take this advice (and then used the ZIPs Projection for stats), we would get a lineup that looks something like this:

1. Brandon Belt
2. Aubrey Huff
3. Pat Burrell
4. Buster Posey
5. Pablo Sandoval
6. Miguel Tejada
7. Freddy Sanchez
8. Aaron Rowand
9. Pitcher

Belt is projected to have the second highest on-base percentage and not hit for as much power as guys like Sandoval, Huff, or Burrell. That would put him in the leadoff spot. Before we start jumping to conclusions, based on his slow start, if he had hit as well as his xBABIP suggests, he would have an average of .268 and an on-base percentage of .360. That would be perfect.

Posey is the Giants best hitter, so he goes in the four spot. Huff is the second best hitter on the team, so he goes in the second spot. Burrell is slotted in the third spot because of his homers and Sandoval goes into the five hole. The bottom of the lineup goes in order of talent. For this, I went in order of projected OPS+.

I could see switching Huff and Sandoval to break up the left handed batters, but it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me.

With regards to the leadoff hitter, there really isn't a great option on the team and that's why I don't envy Bruce Bochy.

Sanchez could be okay when his hits all falling in but he doesn't take a lot of walks. Rowand is just plain not a good hitter anymore; he has been hot to start the season and has done so the last couple years, but I am scared of the hitter of last year coming up and getting the most at-bats each game. Tejada has never been a big on-base guy and is a bit of a hacker. If the hits are not falling, then he could be an out machine.

You don't really want to put Posey, Huff, or Burrell leading off with their power and their lack of speed. Sandoval falls into this same category now that he seems to be looking more like his 2009 vintage instead of 2010.

By process of elimination, that leaves Belt as the best choice until Ross or Torres returns.

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The Giants Confounding Bullpen Utilization


The Giants have a very good bullpen but so far this season, Bruce Bochy has taken an interesting approach to deploying it. Interesting may be a kind word because in reality, it's downright maddening and in the long run, it could cost this team wins with the number of close games that this team plays.

In a perfect world, you would use your best relief pitcher in the most important spot, your second best reliever in the second most important spot, and so on. This is a difficult task because you don't have perfect information and the future is unknown and you can't know for sure what the importance of latter events will be.

The strategy that managers have developed over time is there are roles for their pitchers. The relief ace is the closer who pitches the ninth inning of close games (or comes in for the last couple outs of the eighth inning) and then in descending order of talent, every other pitcher has his inning. There are some exceptions with specialist pitchers that excel at getting out lefties that face just a batter or two or a long reliever who is their to eat innings for a struggling starter.

For the most part, this system works. Leverage increases (here is the leverage table) as the end of the game nears so the best pitcher pitch in the highest leverage spots but there are certain times that this is not the case and a team employing the normal strategy would have a suboptimal pitcher pitching in a very important time in the game.

Here is the list of the Giants relievers and the average leverage when they entered the game along with the ZIPS projections for ERA+, FIP, and k/9:

Name
gmLI
Rank
ERA+
FIP
K/9
1.88
7.3
101
3.88
6.98
1.84
1.7
146
2.69
11.02
1.05
6.0
102
4.05
8.77
0.78
1.3
148
2.48
10.31
0.74
4.3
118
3.54
7.21
0.63
3.7
118
3.78
8.26
0.6
6.7
108
3.86
6.02
0.49
5.0
111
3.79
8.06

The first thing that jumps out at you (or should jump out at you) is that Guillermo Mota and Dan Runzler so far this early season have entered the game in some of the most crucial spots for the Giants while being arguably the worst pitchers in the bullpen. (Side note: Mota and Runzler are still good pitchers as you can see from their numbers, but they are not as good as the other guys in the Giants bullpen.)

If Bochy optimized his bullpen better, Mota and Runzler would be down at the bottom, with more of their opportunities going to Ramirez and Affeldt. These guys have been utilized as the first to come in to replace a struggling pitcher who is in a jam and that really shouldn't be the case if Bochy wants to maximize the Giants chances of winning games.

I can understand Bochy wanting to save Wilson and Romo for the eighth and ninth innings because of uncertainty of what's to come, but I think that he can do a much better job of using his second-tier guys in those early crucial situations to get a better pitcher to get out of jams.

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Monday, April 11, 2011

I Second this


Barry Zito didn't have it yesterday but he did somehow manage to avoid damage through five innings, but then his walks bit him in the ass. A summary from Giants Win.
Bruce Bochy's leash on Zito cannot be short enough. He should be pulled at the first sign of trouble. Thanks again for wasting $126 million on him, Brian Sabean. Here's how the Sickening Sixth went --
  • Coaching visit to mound.
MY COMMENT -- Why is Zito still pitching after walking two? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY?
The leash should have been shorter because it was pretty obvious that Zito didn't have his best stuff and his control was lacking. I can't really understand why you let him pitch out of that jam with a tie game. Instead, Bochy waits too long and the Cardinals jump out to a big lead.

Ball game. By the way, I still stand by my prediction that Zito will have his best year with the Giants. He just needs some help from his manager to not put him in no win situations. He doesn't have the stuff anymore to pitch out of self made jams late in games.

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