Thoughts, Graphs and Tables about the Giants Bullpen

So far this season I haven't been the biggest fan of the way that Bruce Bochy has managed the Giants bullpen. In the last month things haven't changed that much, I watch the games and scratch my head wondering what he was thinking.

My biggest problem is that Sergio Romo, one of the best non-closer relievers in baseball is treated like that really old can of soup in your pantry and that is only to be used when all the other food in the house has been eaten and it is 3 in the morning and the store is closed. That shouldn't be the case, he needs to be used and it needs to be in important situations.

Here is an updated table of something that made back in April that shows the leverage when each reliever entered the game and then the rank of their stats among the Giants relievers.

Name	gmLI	avg rank	ERA+	Rank	FIP	Rank	k/9	Rank
Sergio Romo	1.41	1.3	432	2	1.48	1	13.97	1
Javier Lopez	1.7	3.7	676	1	2.67	3	6.46	7
Brian Wilson	2.05	4.3	95	5	2.93	6	10.9	2
Guillermo Mota	1.32	4.3	163	4	2.84	5	8.06	4
Ramon Ramirez	1.28	4.3	374	3	2.05	2	6.35	8
Santiago Casilla	0.49	5.7	60	7	3.93	7	9	3
Dan Runzler	0.7	6.0	56	8	2.76	4	7.5	6
Jeremy Affeldt	1.05	6.3	76	6	5.08	8	7.63	5

The things that I take away from this is that Runzler isn't as bad as his ERA would suggest and that he should remain a decent option going forward in low to medium leverage situations or as a LOOGY.

Affeldt is a mess and should really be given time to sort out his control issues. From what I have seen it looks like his "stuff" is good but he is trying to be too careful and is too often outside of the strike zone.

Everything else based on leverage when entering the game seems to be pretty good so let's move on to the next graph with the innings for each relief pitcher.

Click for larger view

This is where things get screwy. Mota is a good pitcher but I am not sure he should be the guy with the most innings (although 7 of his innings came in the long relief role and if taken out put him even with Affeldt and Lopez) and Romo really shouldn't have among the fewest innings pitched.

We have only reached the 20% mark of the season so it is still early but man there have been some interesting usage going on so far.

UPDATE 7:41 am: After I posted this I noticed that Chris from Bay City Ball had done something similar check that out too. Well at least my graph is prettier. 

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

The Save Rule Has Ruined Bullpen Usage

The save has destroyed the way the modern bullpen is utilized. I wrote earlier this month about the egregious bullpen usage of Bruce Bochy and he's not alone in using his bullpen in a less than optimal manor.

There is an excellent article written by Matthew Leach of mlb.com that hits things spot on.

A culture has developed around one individual stat to the extent that some managers and pitching coaches sometimes seem to focus as much on that number as on winning a game. That statistic is the save. The culture of saves has changed baseball strategies and tactics, and not for the better.

The save rule unilaterally decrees that the most important outs of the game are the final outs. Sometimes, that's the case, but often a game hinges on at-bats in the eighth inning or even the seventh. And too many managers worry more about having their best reliever available for a ninth-inning lead that may not exist if they don't get through the eighth.

The modern bullpen is a hierarchy or roles with some flexibility in the lower tiers. Each pitcher has their set innings or roles that they pitch in and only in the very rare circumstance do things change. When it comes to the ninth inning with a save opportunity, things get even more rigid.

It's rather surprising to me that something that appears to be so suboptimal in such a fiercely competitive league where a marginal win is measured in the $5 million range boggles my mind. Things were not always this way and it has really only been since the 80's that things have changed. Before then, the relief ace was a "fireman" who came into get out of jams. Now, that very important task is left to pitchers who are less talented and paid much less.

For teams that have more than just one good pitcher, this isn't as big of an issue, but for teams where the drop off in talent is high, this could be difference between a win and never getting the chance to use a closer in a save situation.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

The Giants Confounding Bullpen Utilization

The Giants have a very good bullpen but so far this season, Bruce Bochy has taken an interesting approach to deploying it. Interesting may be a kind word because in reality, it's downright maddening and in the long run, it could cost this team wins with the number of close games that this team plays.

In a perfect world, you would use your best relief pitcher in the most important spot, your second best reliever in the second most important spot, and so on. This is a difficult task because you don't have perfect information and the future is unknown and you can't know for sure what the importance of latter events will be.

The strategy that managers have developed over time is there are roles for their pitchers. The relief ace is the closer who pitches the ninth inning of close games (or comes in for the last couple outs of the eighth inning) and then in descending order of talent, every other pitcher has his inning. There are some exceptions with specialist pitchers that excel at getting out lefties that face just a batter or two or a long reliever who is their to eat innings for a struggling starter.

For the most part, this system works. Leverage increases (here is the leverage table) as the end of the game nears so the best pitcher pitch in the highest leverage spots but there are certain times that this is not the case and a team employing the normal strategy would have a suboptimal pitcher pitching in a very important time in the game.

Here is the list of the Giants relievers and the average leverage when they entered the game along with the ZIPS projections for ERA+, FIP, and k/9:

Name	gmLI	Rank	ERA+	FIP	K/9
Guillermo Mota	1.88	7.3	101	3.88	6.98
Brian Wilson	1.84	1.7	146	2.69	11.02
Dan Runzler	1.05	6.0	102	4.05	8.77
Sergio Romo	0.78	1.3	148	2.48	10.31
Ramon Ramirez	0.74	4.3	118	3.54	7.21
Jeremy Affeldt	0.63	3.7	118	3.78	8.26
Javier Lopez	0.6	6.7	108	3.86	6.02
Santiago Casilla	0.49	5.0	111	3.79	8.06

The first thing that jumps out at you (or should jump out at you) is that Guillermo Mota and Dan Runzler so far this early season have entered the game in some of the most crucial spots for the Giants while being arguably the worst pitchers in the bullpen. (Side note: Mota and Runzler are still good pitchers as you can see from their numbers, but they are not as good as the other guys in the Giants bullpen.)

If Bochy optimized his bullpen better, Mota and Runzler would be down at the bottom, with more of their opportunities going to Ramirez and Affeldt. These guys have been utilized as the first to come in to replace a struggling pitcher who is in a jam and that really shouldn't be the case if Bochy wants to maximize the Giants chances of winning games.

I can understand Bochy wanting to save Wilson and Romo for the eighth and ninth innings because of uncertainty of what's to come, but I think that he can do a much better job of using his second-tier guys in those early crucial situations to get a better pitcher to get out of jams.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there.

I Second this

Barry Zito didn't have it yesterday but he did somehow manage to avoid damage through five innings, but then his walks bit him in the ass. A summary from Giants Win.

Bruce Bochy's leash on Zito cannot be short enough. He should be pulled at the first sign of trouble. Thanks again for wasting $126 million on him, Brian Sabean. Here's how the Sickening Sixth went --

• Albert Pujols grounds out, shortstop Mike Fontenot to first baseman Brandon Belt.

• Matt Holliday walks.

• Coaching visit to mound.

• Allen Craig walks. Matt Holliday to 2nd.

• David Freese doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Aubrey Huff. Matt Holliday scores. Allen Craig to 3rd.

• Skip Schumaker doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Aaron Rowand. Allen Craig scores. David Freese scores.

• Pitcher Change: Guillermo Mota replaces Barry Zito, batting 9th.

MY COMMENT -- Why is Zito still pitching after walking two? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY?

The leash should have been shorter because it was pretty obvious that Zito didn't have his best stuff and his control was lacking. I can't really understand why you let him pitch out of that jam with a tie game. Instead, Bochy waits too long and the Cardinals jump out to a big lead.

Ball game. By the way, I still stand by my prediction that Zito will have his best year with the Giants. He just needs some help from his manager to not put him in no win situations. He doesn't have the stuff anymore to pitch out of self made jams late in games.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there.

Giants Link Round-Up

Another week is in the books and we are another week closer to real games starting. To help you pass the time until then and to get you through your Friday, here are the best Giants links of the week:

Crazy Crabbers: Check out the podcast that I recorded Wednesday night and read about why it's time to lock up Buster Posey to a long-term deal.

C70: A member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance asked a bunch of us some questions about the Giants for his series called playing pepper.

El Lefty Malo: Thoughts on the Giants' Final Bullpen Spot and the final bench spot are the two things left undecided this spring.

ESPN: Chip Buck of Fire Brand of the American League and It’s About the Money Stupid had the reigns of the sweet spot blog and laid out why the Giants shouldn't be expected to repeat.

Paapfly: The lucky guy is in Scottsdale but he took the time to have a good natured debate about where Brandon Belt should start the season. Read What you risk when you send Brandon Belt to Fresno and my counter point, Taking the cautious route with Brandon Belt.

McCovey Chronicles: Bruce Jenkins was at it again and Grant took him down a notch or two (oh no, I used numbers there), Stat lovers who hate stats.

SF Giants Report: Starting Pitcher Depth a Concern; Could Pedro Martinez Be an Answer? I would lean no, but it's an interesting idea.

Splashing Pumpkins: The worst hitter to ever play an extended amount of time with the Giants, An Ode to Hal Lanier.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there.

Sergio Romo's Sinker

In the usual play book of Spring Training cliches, the first is the best shape of their life story and then it is the pitchers learning a new pitch.

This season, the guy who has claimed to have learned a new pitch is Sergio Romo. He spent some time with Jeremy Affeldt, who showed him how to throw his sinking fastball that he has used to get the Giants out of tough spots in the last two seasons.

From the Chronicle:

Romo has developed a sinker using a grip that Affeldt taught him just before spring training. Romo retired his first hitter, Montero, on a sinker grounded to first.

"I walked up to Affeldt in the training room, shook his hand and said, 'Thank you very much,' " said Romo, who believes an effective sinker will allow him to "save some bullets" by getting more grounders early in the count. He knew after last season he had to perfect another pitch.

"I'm at that point in my career where everybody's looking for the slider," he said. "That's my pitch. I don't want to get caught having to throw it."

I guess Romo was feeling too predictable and after giving up a few high profile home runs on his slider this season and during the playoffs, he wanted something that he could keep on the ground and induce ground balls.

If he uses it to keep batters off balance, that is a nice addition to his repertoire. I just have concerns that this will mess with his awesome peripheral stats. Romo has been a beast of a relief pitcher. He's managed a strikeout rate of over 10/9 while keeping the walks in check at around 2/9, all without the over-powering fastball (only 88.7 mph) that is usually the norm for elite relievers.

Romo lives in the shadow of the other bearded reliever in the Giants bullpen, but he is just as key to making the bullpen one of the best in the majors. He pitches in some of the highest leverage spots that are not the last 3-4 outs of the game. If this new pitch makes him a better pitcher and keeps the batters off balance, I am all for it.

---

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.