Hot Stove: Giants Budget Math Looks Bleak

With the signing of Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez the MLB Hot Stove season has officially kicked off for the Giants. With that in mind I think it is a good time to take a look at how much of the Giants budget will be left to spend on Free Agents this off season.

To get an idea I pulled up the Giants from Cot's Contracts and took a look at what MLB Trade Rumors projects for the Giants arbitration eligible players to get a rough estimate of where things will be for next year.

Here is the table with the 2012 salaries with an assumed $130 million budget:

Player	Salary	Budget Remaining
Lincecum, Tim	$    19.20	$  110.80
Zito, Barry	$    19.00	$    91.80
Cain, Matt	$    15.33	$    76.47
Rowand, Aaron	$    13.60	$    62.87
Huff, Aubrey	$    10.00	$    52.87
Wilson, Brian	$       8.50	$    44.37
Sanchez, Freddy	$       6.00	$    38.37
Sanchez, Jonathan	$       5.20	$    33.17
Affeldt, Jeremy	$       5.00	$    28.17
Lopez, Javier	$       4.25	$    23.92
Sandoval, Pablo	$       3.20	$    20.72
Jeff Keppinger	$       2.70	$    18.02
Torres, Andres	$       2.50	$    15.52
Ryan Vogelsong	$       2.50	$    13.02
Ramirez, Ramon S.	$       2.30	$    10.72
Casilla, Santiago	$       1.90	$       8.82
Fontenot, Mike	$       1.30	$       7.52
Romo, Sergio	$       1.30	$       6.22
Schierholtz, Nate	$       1.20	$       5.02
Whiteside, Eli	$       0.70	$       4.32
Burriss, Emmanuel	$       0.60	$       3.72
Posey, Buster	$       0.50	$       3.22
Bumgarner, Madison	$       0.45	$       2.77
Runzler, Dan	$       0.45	$       2.32
Belt, Brandon	$       0.45	$       1.87
Chris Stewart	$       0.45	$       1.42

Guys in green are arbitration eligible who I expect to come back, guys in yellow are arbitration eligible and are candidates for not having a contract tendered to them. The guys in white have a contract already for next season or are under team control still. Finally there is Aaron Rowand who was released but still owed $13 million for next season and I am pretty sure counts against the Giants budget.

If everyone comes back that leaves about $1.5 million for Free Agent Activities. If the non-tender candidates don't come back that leaves about $12 million for Free Agents. If the partners that control the team are feeling generous and don't count Rowand's money owed to him this season and the non-tender candidates don't come back the Giants have about $25 million left for Free Agents.

The last issue is what the final number will be for the budget. For this exercise I have assumed $130 million but the more realistic number is a small increase from this seasons $122 million. If that is the case the chances of getting a big free agent are nearly zero, and the chance of getting more than one mid-tier free agent seem slim as well with around $118 already committed.

We will see how Brain Sabean deals with this situation, barring a big deal that moves a high priced pitcher or a change of heart from management this off season won't be one that offers any big name quick fixes.

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Bargain or Bust: The 2010 Giants Salaries

The Giants last season were very much feast or famine in getting value from their players. They had some huge bargains and some huge busts but not a lot of players that earned what they "deserved."

This is pretty interesting to me and I wonder if this is a normal occurrence around baseball or if the Giants were a special case last year. Unless someone knows off the top of their head, that could be something interesting to look at another day.

Here are the 2010 Salaries, WAR turned into Value ($4.25 million per win), and then the difference.

Name	WAR	Salary	Marginal Value	Difference
Andres Torres	6	$ 426,000	$ 25,500,000	$ 25,074,000
Aubrey Huff	5.7	$ 3,000,000	$ 24,225,000	$ 21,225,000
Buster Posey	3.9	$ 400,000	$ 16,575,000	$ 16,175,000
Tim Lincecum	5.1	$ 9,000,000	$ 21,675,000	$ 12,675,000
Matt Cain	4	$ 4,583,333	$ 17,000,000	$ 12,416,667
Pat Burrell	2.7	$ 300,000	$ 11,475,000	$ 11,175,000
Juan Uribe	3.2	$ 3,250,000	$ 13,600,000	$ 10,350,000
Jonathan Sanchez	2.6	$ 2,100,000	$ 11,050,000	$ 8,950,000
Madison Bumgarner	2	$ 400,000	$ 8,500,000	$ 8,100,000
Pablo Sandoval	1.9	$ 465,000	$ 8,075,000	$ 7,610,000
Freddy Sanchez	2.7	$ 6,000,000	$ 11,475,000	$ 5,475,000
Brian Wilson	2.7	$ 6,500,000	$ 11,475,000	$ 4,975,000
Sergio Romo	1.2	$ 416,500	$ 5,100,000	$ 4,683,500
Santiago Casilla	0.9	$ 400,000	$ 3,825,000	$ 3,425,000
Eli Whiteside	0.7	$ 405,000	$ 2,975,000	$ 2,570,000
Nate Schierholtz	0.5	$ 416,500	$ 2,125,000	$ 1,708,500
Dan Runzler	0.4	$ 400,500	$ 1,700,000	$ 1,299,500
Travis Ishikawa	0.3	$ 417,000	$ 1,275,000	$ 858,000
Guillermo Mota	0.3	$ 750,000	$ 1,275,000	$ 525,000
Jeremy Affeldt	0.2	$ 4,000,000	$ 850,000	$ (3,150,000)
Edgar Renteria	1.3	$ 10,000,000	$ 5,525,000	$ (4,475,000)
Barry Zito	2.1	$ 18,500,000	$ 8,925,000	$ (9,575,000)
Aaron Rowand	0.5	$ 13,600,000	$ 2,125,000	$ (11,475,000)

It isn't surprising (or at least shouldn't be if you watched the team last year), but Rowand and Zito are the worst offenders, with Huff and Torres leading the team. Torres is unreal; according to this calculation, he was worth nearly 60 times what the Giants paid him!

What was most surprising to me is only two guys were within $1 million of their pay and value. Even then, Mota, who is closest, was worth 70% more than what the Giants paid him.

All very interesting.

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