Giants vs Dodgers Series Preview

Giants vs Dodgers Series Preview

Okay, the opening series probably did not go the way we wanted it to go as fans. But its a new week and the Giants open up a three game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Some key take things to look at from the previous series. The pitching is good, the offense sucks and to many defensive errors. All in all I was hoping for a split but only loosing 3 out of 4 is not the worst thing in the world. Now on to the preview...

Game one: Drew Pomeranz vs Julio Urias

Both pitchers are making their season debuts. The Dodgers are the hotter team we all know what kind of offense they bring. They have already scored 15 runs in a game where as the Giants have only mustered a season high of two. The only thing to look forward to in this game is Pomeranz making his Giants debut. Other then that I imagine it will be another night of quiet bats and low scoring for the Giants.

Game two: Madison Bumgarner (0-1 2.57 ERA) vs Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-0 1.5 ERA)

With Bumgarner on the mound he gives the Giants the best chance to win, Ryu had the Giants number last season going 1-0 in three starts against the club. He gave up a total of 5 runs in those starts. But the Giants have their guy out there in Bumgarner. I like the Giants in this one.

Game three: Derek Holland (0-1 6.75 ERA) vs Ross Stripling (0-0 0.00 ERA)

Holland was bounced around in his first start in San Diego. It would be nice to see him bounce back against the rival to give the team some momentum in the game before the home opener. Ross Stripling did not surrender a run to the Diamondbacks in his first start, this one is a toss up.

It feels weird going into Dodger Stadium and there being no Puig, or Kershaw. Im not complaining but I feel like they added to the rivalry in so many ways. But hey, it is still Giants Dodgers. These teams do not like each other and never will. I would be hopeful for the Giants to get their first series win, but this is the two time defending NL champs. The division goes through Chavez Ravine. 

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Giants Vs Padres Series Preview

Giants Vs Padres Series Preview

Another Opening Day is upon us Giants Fans! Its 2019 and the season is about to begin. The Giants clearly go into this year with a lot of questions (who is playing left field). Anyway the Giants open 2019 on the road yet again, the Giants haven't hosted opening day since 2009 by the way. They open with a four game series in sunny San Diego where last year the Giants went 5-4 at Petco Park. They look to start the year off strong in what is going to be Bruce Bochy's last year at the helm. So here is to 2019, the most boring of offseasons in recent Giants history is over and these Games actually matter!

Game one: Madison Bumgarner vs Eric Lauer

Opening Day in San Diego, Mad Bum on the mound for maybe the final opening day in his Giants Career, Manny Machado making his Padre debut, I have even heard that Petco will be sold out? Will we see another magical opening day performance from Bumgarner like back in 2017? In all honesty I will be content with seven solid innings and enough run support to get the game to the bullpen. Giants take game one 4-2.

Game two: Derek Holland vs. Joey Lucchesi

Dutch Holland only went 6.0 or more innings 14 times last year which isn't terrible but I would like to see that number increase this year. In Games Holland started last year the Giants were a .500 team, he gives them a chance to win but I think the Padres win this one 5-2. Lucchesi builds off his decent 2018 campaign.

Game three: Dereck Rodriguez vs TBD

D-Rod makes his first start of the year after a surprise 2018 where he was one of the Giants biggest bright spots and most likely forced the trade of Chris Stratton. He struggled late in the year last season, but he will be out to prove that last year was not a fluke and he deserves to be here. The Padres have not announced a starter for this game. This one is a toss up, your guess is as good as mine.

Game four: Jeff Samardzija vs Chris Paddack

The Shark got roughed up in his last spring training outing against the A's, he faces Paddack who will be making his Major League debut, I will hopefully be able attend this game (work permitting). The Giants have already said that they will be cautious with Samardzija as he is coming off a season riddled with shoulder problems. Giants take the series finale by a score of 2-1, on get away day as they get ready to head up interstate 5 to Los Angeles.

I would hope for a series split, but I think that the Giants can take 3 of 4 here to start the year. The pitching is good, the defense is good enough to do well. The Giants have always played “Bochy ball” (solid defense and timely hitting) this team has the pieces to do that. Joe Panik has a had an incredible spring, the last few games Crawford showed impressive bat control going the opposite way. I like Duggar setting the table. This team might surprise people, in case you forgot this team was in the hunt for the division until they were swept in Cincinnati and the wheels fell off and the brass started to shut people down for the year. Maybe I’m just being an optimist but I believe in this team. So this year will be a surprise or I will be a drunk one or the other I’m okay with either outcome. HUMMMM BABY!

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World Series Preview: Giants vs Tigers

The Vegas odds favor the Tigers. Actually, the odds are pretty heavy in favor of the Tigers. I guess that is what happens when you sweep the Yankees. The guys who set the lines aren't stupid, but this seems to really discount the Giants chances so let's take a look.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Wednesday, October 24, 5:00 PM: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito PREVIEW

Thursday, October 25, 5:00 PM: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Saturday , October 27, 5:00 PM: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Sunday, October 28, 5:00 PM: Max Scherzer vs. Matt Cain

Monday, October 29, 5:00 PM*: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito

Wednesday, October 31, 5:00 PM*: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Thursday, November 1, 5:00 PM*: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

*If necessary. There is always the chance that if the Tigers get down we'll see Verlander on short rest or Lincecum instead of Zito or Bumgarner for a second go-around.

Odds:

	Giants	Tigers
Game 1	42%	58%
Game 2	55%	45%
Game 3	51%	49%
Game 4	50%	50%
Game 5	37%	63%
Game 6	55%	45%
Game 7	55%	45%

No real surprises here. Verlander moves the Tigers to the favorite on the games he starts. Cain and Vogelsong make the first two games in Detroit toss-ups. The big wild card: can Bumgarner fix whatever broke in his mechanics? The Giants think he has, so I really hope that is the case.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Tigers
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	9%	16%
in 6 games	16%	15%
in 7 game	17%	14%
Total:	49%	51%

With both teams being even it's no surprise that the chances of either team sweeping are low. The Tigers' best chance to win the Series is to finish things off at home in five games or less. Any longer and things favor the Giants.

Playing around with things, if Zito is capable of beating Verlander things move heavily into the Giants favor (67% chance of winning series). While a split of the first two games leaves things at 50/50 headed to Detroit.

Getting down 3-1 is probably a very bad idea. If that happens again, the odds of coming back slip to just 11% (by comparison their odds against St. Louis were at 18% in that situation).

I may be a homer, but my prediction is Giants in 7. I want another parade!

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Phillies

The Phillies have been an under performing team this season but by no means does it feel like this should be an easy series. For one going into Philadelphia is never easy, the crowd I am sure still has no love for the Giants and will want to let it be known, the weather is going to be pretty gross with warm nights (at least not hot) and thunderstorms, oh yeah and their is a still pretty good baseball team that plays there.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses.
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables (via MLB.com):

• Friday, July 20, 4:05 PM: Tim Lincecum vs. Vance Worley
• Saturday, July 21, 1:05 PM: Matt Cain vs. Cole Hamels
• Sunday, July 22, 10:35 AM: Barry Zito vs. Joe Blanton

Odds:

	Phillies	Giants
Game 1	47%	53%
Game 2	52%	48%
Game 3	58%	42%
Sweep	14%	11%
2 out 3	39%	36%
1 out 3	36%	39%
0 out 3	11%	14%
Win Series	53%	47%
Lose Series	47%	53%

The projection model has not given up on Tim Lincecum and it is reflected in the games one odds where it says that the Giants are favored. I am a bit skeptical, and I will continue to be until Lincecum puts together a decent string of starts that suggest that it is more than a one game thing.

The Game two match-up is an exciting one with two of the best starters in the National League squaring off. The model suggests a tight low scoring game is in order and I sure hope that is the case.

Game three isn't as exciting as the first two with the Phillies having a pretty big edge. Barry Zito has done some pretty crazy things in this up and down year so I guess it is possible that he could bring the same stuff that shutout the Braves for seven innings with him to Philadelphia. I am not counting on it but it could happen.

I am going to go against my nature and say that I expect a series victory in this one, I hope Lincecum shows that his last start wasn't a fluke and builds on it on his way to a resurgent second half. I hope that Cain out duels Hamels. I hope that Zito gives the Giants a chance to win and doesn't kill the bullpen. So here's hoping to at least two out of three of those things happen.

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Marlins

The Giants finished April with a record of 12 and 10, winning 5 of the 7 series that they played. They are currently on pace for about 88 wins, which is about what was expected out of them but given all of this it felt that they played a little bit better than their record currently shows.

Maybe it is just that I got so used to a team that scratched and clawed for every run but this team scored 90 runs in the month, averaging over 4 runs a game for a whole month, which all last season they only did one time (during August). With a team built around pitching I would have expected a better record given the run support but I guess part of that was hidden by the opening series sweep.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still weighted toward the projections but slightly less than it had been previously. It will stay pretty heavily projected toward projections until maybe Memorial Day when we have nearly two full months of data to go with.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Matt Cain vs. Ricky Nolasco
Barry Zito vs. Carlos Zambrano
Ryan Vogelsong vs. Anibal Sanchez

Odds:

	Giants	Marlins	Total Runs
Game 1	64%	36%	6.4
Game 2	60%	40%	6.9
Game 3	53%	47%	5.9
Sweep	16%	9%
2 out 3	41%	34%
1 out 3	34%	41%
0 out 3	9%	16%
Win Series	57%	43%
Lose Series	43%	57%

The Giants are favored in every game against the Marlins who are coming in really struggling. The Giants should hopefully be able to take advantage and start the month out right with another series win. The Zito vs. Zambrano match up should be interesting because who doesn't like a double "Z" match up, also of note since I started doing this I don't remember Zito being so heavily favored to win, so good for him.

Predicting over under: I got my first ever series win in betting the over/under last week taking the under all three games and being correct in all but Friday's game which just got to the over by one run. This brings my season record to .500 with my goal being .550 by the end of the year. Another winning series would certainly help me get there. Tonight's line is 6 and I am taking the under so hopefully Cain has his good stuff. After I published this I noticed I made an error in tonight's odd's, the Giants are now favored even more and the project runs is now pushing me to the over, so hope for a ton of Giants offense.

Season record 10-10

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Padres

The Giants ended their series winning streak with a 1-2 series against the Reds but it could have been much worse had it not been for Angel Pagan who hit a breaking ball out in the top of the ninth to turn a 2 run deficit into a Giants lead. The road trip overall was above .500 and the Giants return home for a nine game home stand after playing 13 road games of their first 19.


Up first is the struggling Padres who my projection model says that the Giants should be pretty heavily favored to beat.


Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Eric Hacker* vs. Cory Luebke
Tim Lincecum vs. Anthony Bass
Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Richard

*Hacker hasn't been officially announced but he is the presumed starter

Odds:

	Giants	Padres	Total Runs
Game 1	49%	51%	6.7
Game 2	70%	30%	6.0
Game 3	69%	31%	6.5
Sweep	24%	5%
2 out 3	45%	26%
1 out 3	26%	45%
0 out 3	5%	24%
Win Series	69%	31%
Lose Series	31%	69%

The big thing that is driving the Giants chances of winning is that their offense so far this season is projected to be nearly a full run higher per game. The Giants also have a pretty big advantage in the pitching department in games two and three.

Predicting over under: Another series, another split. My quest to get above .500 on the year continues. Just taking a quick look at my projected runs I think I will be taking the under in all three games, so hopefully the Giants pitching can shutdown the Padres and get my season record on the plus side.

Season record 8-9

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Reds

The Giants are rolling right now winning 4 series in a row while going 9 and 4 in that span.To top all off they have the 5th best offense in the National League based on wRC+ and 4th in Fielding Independent Pitching.

The offense is scoring runs and the pitching is back on track preventing them. There really isn't much more that you can ask for, except that they keep it going for the whole season.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com: 

Matt Cain vs. Mat Latos

Barry Zito vs. Bronson Arroyo

Ryan Vogelson vs. Homer Bailey

Odds:

	Reds	Giants	Total Runs
Game 1	42%	58%	7.5
Game 2	45%	55%	8.2
Game 3	42%	58%	7.9
Sweep	8%	19%
2 out 3	31%	42%
1 out 3	42%	31%
0 out 3	19%	8%
Win Series	39%	61%
Lose Series	61%	39%

The odds are heavily in the Giants favor and with the Giants holding an edge in each days pitching match-ups and with the improved offense giving a bump to the expected runs scored. The projection system says that the odds of another series win looks good. I sure hope that is the case.

Predicting over under: I got myself a split in the last series by taking the under in all four games. It looks like today is another day where my projection is right at the cutoff for the over/under so I won't have an official guess but with the way that Cain is pitching I would lean toward the under with my unofficial pick. Hopefully I can pick up a couple of right picks to get back on the correct side of .500.

Season record 7-8.

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Mets

The Giants are pretty much back on track after getting swept to start the season, they have series wins in the last three that they have played and the pitching staff which had let them down has been the strength of the team (with the notable exception of Tim Lincecum). The bats have cooled down a bit but the team is still averaging over 4 runs a game on the season.

Now the Giants embark on their first east coast road trip with a four game series in New York and then a stop in Cincinnati for three more. Hopefully they can keep up their winning ways and come back with a winning record.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Jon Niese vs. Barry Zito

Mike Pelfrey vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Dillon Gee vs. Tim Lincecum

Johan Santana vs. Madison Bumgarner

Odds:

	Mets	Giants	Total Runs
Game 1	50%	50%	7.3
Game 2	51%	49%	7.1
Game 3	36%	64%	6.7
Game 4	49%	51%	6.3
Sweep	4.5%	8.0%
3 of 4	21.5%	28.5%
Split	37.5%	37.5%
1 of 4	28.5%	21.5%
0 of 4	8.0%	4.5%
Win Series	26%	37%
Split	37%	37%
Lose Series	37%	26%

  

Predicting over under: Last series I only was able to take the over under on two games because my Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay projection was exactly what the spread was. I did post here that if I was the person making the bet that I would have taken the over and it would have been the correct choice, but for the sake of this experiment I won't count that as a correct guess (unless things get really ugly down the road and I need this to help save some face).

Season record 5-6.

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Phillies

After being swept in Arizona the Giants have bounced back to win back to back series against the Rockies and Pirates. The good news is that the starting pitching which was not good in Arizona has looked much better with Giants starters posting quality starts in 5 of the last 6 games. At the same time the offense has continued to score runs in bunches scoring 4 runs in 8 of the Giants first 9 games.


The Phillies are a tough match-up but with a lineup that is missing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard they have gotten off to a slow start offensively. So maybe the Giants are going to catch a bit of a break against a very tough team.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point I think May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
Madison Bumgarner vs. Joe Blanton
Matt Cain (not announced yet but assumed) vs. Cliff Lee

Odds:

	Giants	Phillies	Total Runs
Game 1	52%	48%	6.0
Game 2	58%	42%	6.7
Game 3	49%	51%	5.8
Sweep	15%	10%
2 out 3	40%	35%
1 out 3	35%	40%
0 out 3	10%	15%
Win Series	54%	46%
Lose Series	46%	54%

The Giants are slight favorites but really only on the strength of being the home team. On a neutral site the Phillies would actually be favored so this should be a very even match-up on paper. In addition this is the lowest total runs projections I have seen in a while, I guess that's what happens when you get a couple of great rotations together.


Predicting over under: My results continue to mirror the teams as I went 2-1 against the over/under to improve my record to 4-5 on the season. Tonight's over/under is set at 6 which is exactly what I have projected so I guess I am sitting out tonight's game, my heart is saying take the over with Lincecum's struggles but it is hard to bet on Lincecum not coming out of his funk eventually.

Season record 4-5

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Pirates

Opening day has arrived.

On the bright side things are starting to look a little better for the Giants after taking 2 out of 3 from the Rockies. Madison Bumgarner pitched an excellent game, Barry Zito threw a shutout and the Giants offense continued to score runs in bunches. There were some not so good things but now isn't the time to rehash those because opening day is for celebrating.

The Giants draw the struggling Pirates who come in with the lowest runs scored of any team in baseball and like the Giants they have only 2 wins in the young season.

My Projection model really likes the Giants chances this series so hopefully the Giants can send people home happy with another series win.

Probable Pitchers:

Matt Cain vs. James McDonald
Barry Zito vs. Charlie Morton (Morton hasn't been officially announced yet but is the likely choice)
Ryan Vogelsong vs. Kevin Correia

Odds:

	Giants	Pirates	Total Runs
Game 1	56%	44%	6.6
Game 2	60%	40%	6.9
Game 3	61%	39%	7.3
Sweep	20%	7%
2 out 3	43%	30%
1 out 3	30%	43%
0 out 3	7%	20%
Win Series	63%	37%
Lose Series	37%	63%

One quick note, I have added in a park factor adjustment to the model to hopefully help make my total runs projection a little bit better.


Predicting over under: My results continue to match the teams, going 2 and 1 in the Colorado series. I took the under all three times and expect for the crazy Wednesday night game it worked out. The over/under for today's game is 6.5 so it looks like I will be taking the over for the first time of the season, so I hope the Giants continue to score at a high rate.

Season record: 2-4

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