Brian Wilson Melts Down

What a horrible 9th inning by the Giants. They say that a blown save is the most demoralizing of all losses and I think Giants fans will agree with that after tonight's gut punch.

The run down of the misery (I watched a replay of this just for you; I think I deserve a medal):

Jose Constanza singled to shortstop. The high chopper got by Mike Fontenot and Orlando Cabrera couldn't make the transition from glove to bare hand cleanly as he rushed to get the speedy Constanza. That's a tough luck play.

Eric Hinske walks. There were a couple of close pitches that didn't go Wilson's way and you have to credit Hinske for not swinging at Wilson's pitches. This has been the M-O of Wilson this year; way too much nibbling and trying to be perfect and it didn't work out with this walk to put the tying run on base.

Michael Bourn sacrifices, with Constanza and pinch runner Julio Lugo advance. The tying run is now in scoring position. (Surprisingly, this actually lowered the win expectancy for the Braves)

Martin Prado singled to left past a diving Mike Fontenot scoring Constanza. The thing that I didn't get is he had just blown a 96 MPH fastball past him that he couldn't catch up to but then decided to go with the cutter on the next pitch. He caught too much plate and Prado turned on it. It also just got by Fonenot. Maybe a healthy Pablo Sandoval is able to reach that with his new improved range. Anyway, tying run now at third with just one out.

Brian McCann walked. Wilson looks like he wants no part of him. I am not sure we you would do this with one of the hottest hitters on the planet in Dan Uggla on deck. Why not use that nasty two seamer and try to get that ground ball for a double play here?

Uggla struck out swinging. Wilson looked like he took things to another level here. All three pitches that went for strikes were right on the outside corner and perfect pitches. The best Wilson had looked all night.

Freddie Freeman singled to center, Lugo and Prado score, game over. He got ahead with one ball and two strikes, then threw some pitches that were easy takes to bring the count full. On the 3-2 pitch, he caught too much plate and Freeman hit the ball up the middle. With the runners in motion because of the full count, they score without even a throw, thus capping the brutal loss.

Wilson had some bad luck with ground balls finding holes, but he sure didn't help himself with the walks and falling behind hitters. This has been a rough season for Wilson where he doesn't look like himself at all.

His velocity is down, which earlier in the year I thought was because he wanted to get more movement. Now I am not so sure that he is 100 percent healthy. He just doesn't seem right.

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Braves

Don't look now, but the Giants have a win streak going, everybody.

After a rather pathetic streak of baseball where the team lost 11 of 14 games and averaged just 2.21 runs per game, winning two in a row feels like a major accomplishment. Hopefully the team has some confidence because they will need it going into a very tough four game series against the Atlanta Braves.

The projections don't like the Giants chances (surprise, surprise; the offense is the cause) to win this series, but getting a split at the least seems like a possibility. I will take the odds of a split/win at 53% every time and ignore that they have a 47% chance of losing the series outright.

The odds for each game and the series:

	Braves	Giants
Game 1	54%	46%
Game 2	66%	34%
Game 3	59%	41%
Game 4	60%	40%
Sweep	12.8%	2.5%
3 of 4	34.6%	15.3%
Split	34.7%	34.7%
1 of 4	15.3%	34.6%
0 of 4	2.5%	12.8%
Win Series	47%	18%
Split	35%	35%
Lose Series	18%	47%

The Braves have two guys without much of a track record going in Randall Delgado and Mike Minor, so rather than using the FIP from there short stints in the Majors ,I have decided to use their ZIPS projections rest of season FIP.

In addition, for this series, I have made the addition of adding in a defense variable. The effect is pretty minor, costing the Braves just 0.19 runs in each game and the Giants getting a boost of 0.06 runs.

This has the makings of a very tough test for the Giants but hopefully the team can find a way to score some runs and get at least a split here.

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Giants vs. Braves Series Preview

The NLDS rematch.

Probables:

Giants	Braves
Friday, April 22, 7:15 PM
Madison Bumgarner	Tommy Hanson
0-2, 7.36 ERA, 7.60 tRA	1-3, 3.86 ERA, 4.75 tRA
My worry level has crept up with each start from Bumgarner. He has shown flashes of putting things together, but has not yet done it for a full game. He hasn’t allowed less than three runs in any of his outings and has walked more than he has struck out. He looked much better in the second half of his start against the D-Backs, so hopefully that is sign of his mechanics clicking.	Hanson, like Bumgarner, has gotten off to a little bit of a rough start. He had one good start against the Marlins and the rest were less than stellar. His strikeouts have dropped off a little bit, reaching back to the middle of last year and have been disappointing thus far this season as well. His 9K game against the Mets in his last outing should give some comfort to Braves fans.
Saturday, April 23, 1:10 PM
Tim Lincecum	Tim Hudson
2-1 1.67 ERA, 2.01 tRA	2-2, 4.05 ERA, 2.93 tRA
Lincecum has been really really good to start this season. He had a no hitter going into the seventh inning at Coors Field and notched his second 10+ strikeout game of the season. His fastball has life again and his slider is a consistent out pitch. It is early, but it looks like the makings of another special season for Lincecum. Also, remember what happened last time he faced the Braves.	Hudson is his usual groundball inducing self, getting 64% of his balls in play hit on the ground. His ERA is a little inflated because he hasn’t as many of the base runners (just 59% compared to his career 74% mark). His tRA also shows that he has been tough on hitters. This should be a very nice pitching matchup and a tough day for the hitters.
Sunday, April 24, 1:05 PM
Jonathan Sanchez	Brandon Beachy
2-1, 3.13 ERA, 2.51 tRA	1-1, 3.86 ERA, 3.85 tRA
Sanchez has pitched well in the number two spot of the rotation this season. Sure he has had his days where he walks too many, but he has continued to miss bats at an elite rate. Sanchez currently sits in second place with a K/9 of 10.96 behind only Matt Garza and ahead of teammate Lincecum. If he can keep doing what he is doing, I am confident that he will put together an excellent season.	Beachy is a rookie pitcher who has done very well in his early stint in the majors. I don’t know much about him, so here is what John Sickels wrote about him: “The 24-year-old Beachy has a 90-94 MPH fastball to go with a solid curveball and changeup, and he has an excellent feel for pitching. It is hard to believe that a guy like this went undrafted, but he's come a long way very quickly. Although many scouts still see him as "just" a number four starter, he outpitched many more-heralded prospects last year, and could certainly do so again this season, making him a sleeper candidate for National League Rookie of the Year.”

Thoughts:

The Braves are a good team but they have gotten off to a slow start. Even though they are below .500, they have a positive run differential. They have a great pitching staff, a good bullpen, and a solid lineup. This should be a tough match-up for the Giants, just like it was in the playoffs.

The Giants have some good mojo going after taking two out of three against the Rockies, so hopefully it carries over coming back home. The long ball has been the Giants friend, but that will be hard against the ground ball heavy Braves, but maybe they can take advantage of some mistakes.

This should be close and I think it could go either way, but it would be big if the Giants can win another series before going on a ten game east coast road trip.

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Taking a closer look at ESPN’s SportsNation Braves vs. Giants Poll Questions

On ESPN's SportsNation they have a bunch of polls up about the different division series matchups. The questions about the Braves and Giants raise some interesting questions (and not just because of the questionable stats used).

So let's take a closer look:

Question 1:

Who had the better rookie season? Jason Heyward (.849 OPS, .270 BA, 18 HR, 72 RBI) or Buster Posey (.862 OPS, .305 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI).

At first glance this looks like a very close matchup but you must also remember that Heyward played 34 more games then Posey did due to starting the season with the big club. In my mind that makes Posey's counting stats more impressive if you take his current rate and project them to 623 PA that Heyward had you get this line:

Posey: .305 BA, 25 HR, 32 2B, 94 RBI

Having done that there are still a number of areas where Heyward has excelled over Posey, primarily the ability to get on base. Heyward nearly pulled off an amazing feat for a rookie posting an OBP of .393! He had nearly a walk for every strikeout which is an amazing skill for a rookie who is just breaking into the league.

I could go either way with this one, but in the end I lean toward Posey for putting up very similar offensive numbers while playing a much harder defensive position.

So America is voting with me but this to me could go either way, I think that they are swayed by the stats posted here where it is favorable to Posey.

Question 2:

Which closer is better? Billy Wagner or Brian Wilson.

Talk about a crap shoot. These 2 guys are both extremely good and amazing well matched statistically.

Take a look:

Billy Wagner: 69.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, FIP 2.10, 0.89 WPA, 37 SV, 7 BS, 2.2 WAR

Brian Wilson: 74.2 IP, 11.21 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, FIP 2.19, 4.14 WPA, 48 SV, 5 BS, 2.7 WAR

The other thing is that both of these guys have hard fastballs 95.6 mph and 95.9 mph respectively, which hitters swing and miss at high rates.

You really couldn't go wrong with either of these guys anchoring a bullpen but I think again that I lean toward Wilson who has shown that this season he can consistently go longer then just 1 inning and he excels in the high leverage situations.

America is leaning the other way and I can't say that they are wrong. Wagner has been a very good pitcher I just think that Wilson has done more in higher pressure situations and that sways my vote.

Question 3:

Who is a more valuable player? Omar Infante (No. 2 in NL BA, No. 80 in NL WAR) or Andres Torres (No. 7 in NL WAR, No. 41 in NL BA)

Well first and foremost the fact that Torres rates 73 places higher in Wins Above Replacement should be a significant boost in why he's a much more valuable player but we can look deeper.

Omar Infante: .321/ .359/ .416, 15 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 7 SB, 2.8 WAR

Andres Torres: .268/ .343/ .479, 43 2B, 8 3B, 16 HR, 26 SB, 6.0 WAR

When you look beyond the fact that Infante has a batting average that is 50 points higher you see that Torres just about beats him in every other category. Even with a 50 point lead in batting average he only has a 16 point gap in OBP and he trails in everything else. If you look a little further at the wOBA Torres has the lead.

If you look further beyond the hitting numbers you see that Torres is again vastly superior. In the outfield Torres is an elite defender with a UZR on the season of 21.5 compared to Infante who plays all over but is average overall with a UZR for the season of -0.1. On top of that Torres also adds quite a bit of value with his speed on the base paths.

Compared to the other questions this one is not really close at all after a deeper look. Torres is a much more valuable player.

I think that America is crazy here. This shouldn't be close at all and I think that it is because of the numbers they chose to present along with the question. Batting average only tells part of the story of a players value, sure Infante has excelled at getting singles but that is about it. Torres gets on base at nearly the same rate, hits for much more power, has better speed and has an elite glove in the outfield. It shouldn't be close, America I am disappointed.

Question 4:

Which Manager is better? Bobby Cox or Bruce Bochy.

I am not sure exactly how to go to much deeper here. Just on the top of my mind both skippers I am sure have made some questionable decisions and some brilliant decisions. In the end though I still don't think that a manager has that much impact on how good a team will be over the course of the season the magnitude is probably only a 2-3 wins either way.

In a short playoff series the difference is probably not that big of a deal. Both guys probably follow the traditional wisdom of baseball and look at small sample sizes and try to make decisions. So really it is probably a wash.

If I had to choose between the two I would lean toward Cox but I do like that Bochy isn't a big sacrifice bunter and he seems to manage the pitching staff well.

Again I vote with America (and it isn't close, as of this writing Cox takes every state in the country and has the lead by a wide margin) but my opinion on this is not that strong maybe someone else can fight the good fight on who is more deserving.

Needed Perspective Courtesy of the Braves

The San Francisco Giants were among the hottest teams in baseball in July winning over 70% of there games and at one point winning 21 of 26 games. Then they strolled into the sauna that is Atlanta.

They faired better then this guy at the World Sauna Championships but the Braves showed the team that they are not a juggernaut that will win every series.

With Buster Posey cooled off the offense looked much more ordinary against the very good Braves pitching staff and the Giants pitchers just didn't have enough magic to steal wins in every game where the offense only could muster a couple of runs.

During the July hot streak the Giants would have some how managed to win 3 of out 4 instead of losing that many but luck has a way of balancing out for everybody except the damn Padres. The Giants are still in a good position just two games out of first and leading the NL wildcard race but they certainly have been humbled and made us all re-examine our expectations.

That being said the Giants are still near there high water mark in games above .500 at 14 and extrapolating their current trend gets them to 89 wins. Here is the latest graph for games above .500 with a linear trendline that I used to extrapolate the rest of the season:

To get to the 92 wins that will most likely assure them of a playoff spot they need to go 29 and 21 over the last 50 games which will be difficult but not impossible.

The Giants are a good team but as we saw this weekend they are certainly flawed and that will make it close down to the end.