Brandon Belt Can't HIt the Breaking Ball

Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid.- Pedro Cerrano, Major League 1989

Brandon Belt has struggled to hit the curveball this season. If there was one thing I would point to and say that is why he is struggling that is it right there.

According the the pitch type values from Fangraphs Belt has done well against fastballs but he has been destroyed on the off speed stuff. One curveballs he has been worth -0.53 runs below average per 100 pitches, on sliders he has been worth -0.64 runs below average per one hundred pitches and on change ups it is even worse where he has been worth -2.37 runs blow average.

When we look at things on the pitch fx level we can see his struggles even better.

Of the curves and sliders he has swung at he has whiffed on 35% of them. The funny thing is that he actually doesn't seem to be swinging at more pitches out of the strikezone on these breaking pitches than he does on other pitch types. 

His overall O-Swing rate is 26.7% while even with a very stingy view of the strike zone on breaking pitches Belt has swung at 22.5% of pitches outside the strike zone. Pablo Sandoval he is not (with his career 44.9% swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone).

His batting average on curveballs is pretty pathetic too sitting at just .218 but he does redeem himself somewhat with getting the most with the balls he does have fall for hits go for extra bases and a .406 slugging percentage. 

I am not sure what else he can do besides stay in the majors and just see more and more of them. At this point we are still talking about too few pitches to make concrete judgments on but going back to the minors is unlikely to much good hat is where one of the biggest differences between the minors and the majors.

Major League pitchers have Major League breaking balls and they don't often make mistakes with them like minor league guys. 

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Good Bye Aaron Rowand and Migeul Tejada

Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada were designated for assignment this morning and the collective response of the fan base has been pretty positive.

Tejada was a stop gap measure and it turned out that he didn't have much left. The move didn't work out but it wasn't a huge mistake.

Rowand on the other hand was a pretty big acquisition in the offseason following the 2007 season. He was supposed to be a middle of the order threat and except for a couple hot stretches here and there he has been a major disappointment.

For example in the first half of 2008 Rowand got off to a fast start he hit .291/.359/ .445 and Brian Sabean was looking good. Well it was all down hill from there in the next 3 and a half year Rowand could only muster a .243/ .273/ .382 line and never saw a slider that wasn't good enough to take a rip at.

The Giants decided that Rowand wasn't worth taking up a roster spot anymore, that is pretty big news and I have to say that I am in agreement.

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6 Back 5 Weeks to go

I was looking through the archives from August of last year and for some reason I was feeling much more optimistic than I am now. I can't explain it because the team was in a pretty similar situation with their world class pitching staff struggling majorly.

This year it is the offense that is dragging the team down but it is possible that they could get hot and go on a run similar to what the pitchers did last season (well it wouldn't be historical I am sure but maybe they could average 5 runs a game).

Here is something that I wrote last season on August 24th:

Time is running out on the playoff run, it is still possible to follow the old Dusty Baker rule of making up a game a week to get back into it the division lead but the margin of error has shrunk to zero.

Well things are looking a little more dire and the Giants cannot follow the Dusty Rule because it will leave them a game short but with 6 games against the team in front of them things are not impossible.

Here is another inspiring note:

If the Padres Diamondbacks blow it wouldn't even break into a top 10 list of late season collapses. That is not to say it is likely or easy but it is not time to count them out. The chance of a division title is still alive in the 10-15% 20% range.

And finally a cliche filled rant that would fit well into any Disney movie:

The team has gone into a little bit of a funk and it is getting to the point where there backs are up against the wall, it just takes a couple of the leaders to step up and this ship will be righted. The baseball season is 162 games; it is a marathon and not a sprint. One game doesn't send a team to the World Series and the Giants just need to take it one game at a time. The veteran presence won't let this team get too down, they keep the clubhouse chemistry loose and fun, and it is one of the intangibles in a veteran team. They just know how to win and given the time the will perform. This team has fought too hard and has too much mental toughness to just roll over and die. If they give it 110 percent and buy into what Bruce Bochy is selling and play as a team this team can pull themselves up by their bootstraps and get back into the race.

Go get em guys.

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The GRIT Leaderboard

The helpful guys at Royals Authority have inspired me, they have come up with an ingenious stat that they have named GRIT here is a quick rundown of the stat:

Be aware gratuitous excerpting ahead:

Introducing GRIT.
What is GRIT? Well, it’s a kick ass acronym:

Gutty
Resilient
Intense
and
Tenacious

Oh… You want to know what it measures? Ultimately, GRIT is the measurement of a player’s determination and steely resolve. Ever wonder how much a player wants to win? Or how dirty he keeps his uniform? Or just how much he busts his ass whether its in batting practice, during a game or while eating a burrito from Chipotle?
Wonder no more.

GRIT is the most accurate snapshot of the player who wills his team to victory… Drives it to win through sheer determination. It is about the little things that don’t show up in the box score. It’s about the beauty of a well placed grounder to the right side that moves the runner to third. It’s about a bunt that forces the first baseman to charge and make a throw. It’s about hustle, busting your ass and being a great teammate. It’s about getting things done.

The formula behind GRIT is straight forward:

(BB%+SO%) * (SB + 1)
_____________________
(ISO*wOBA)

I will break down the formula, so it’s easy to understand and follow.

(BB%+SO%)This is a rudimentary way to figure how often a hitter puts the ball in play. You cannot exhibit GRIT if you look at pitches. GRITty players swing the bat, put the ball in play and make the defense work. A walk IS NOT as good as a hit… It’s a lazy plate appearance. A strikeout is rock bottom. A strikeout looking is like death. GRIT is about players who make things happen. In order to make things happen, you must swing the bat.

(ISO*wOBA)Power is so overrated in today’s game. They used to say chicks dig the longball. But girls are stupid. Home runs are rally killers. There is no way you can GRIT out a win by hitting three-run home runs. A single, stolen base, sac bunt and sac fly is a much more efficient way to score a run, because you are making things happen. Force the issue and keep the defense on their heels. GRIT freaks the defense out. When they worry about the stolen base and the sacrifice bunt, they forget to play with their own GRIT. When one team loses focus and loses GRIT, they will lose the game. Guaranteed.

wOBA is used because, like power, getting on base is overrated. Sure, reaching base is fine and good, but if all you’re doing is setting up the double play for the batter behind you, that is a worthless plate appearance. And if you reach first and aren’t thinking about stealing second or advancing on a kick ass sac bunt, you are a base clogger. Base cloggers are the pond scum of our game and the antithesis of GRIT.

(SB+1)Just like sunsets, Oklahoma Joe’s french fries and the ability to jump over cars, stolen bases are beautiful. The sac bunt is great, but the steal is the lifeblood of GRIT. We add the plus one to the steal total because there are some base cloggers who won’t budge off the bag and have yet to steal a base this season. (Obviously, the number one reason Kila Ka’aihue is in Omaha is because he did not attempt a single stolen base. Unacceptable. Mike Moustakas is on notice.) Because of these players who are dead weight, we have to add the one so we won’t have a broken formula.

Basically, GRIT is a cumulative measure of offensive awesomeness. The GRITtier a player, the higher the GRIT score. The higher the GRIT score, the higher the player’s value. Perfection.

This stat is too great not to pass on. Here are the Giants leaders in GRIT this season (min 50 PA):

Name	GRIT SCORE
Manny Burriss	891.4
Andres Torres	158.6
Orlando Cabrera	59.5
Mark DeRosa	49.6
Mike Fontenot	43.6
Cody Ross	37.5
Nate Schierholtz	36.5
Aubrey Huff	36.1
Miguel Tejada	31.2
Brandon Crawford	29.5
Buster Posey	29.2
Brandon Belt	28.5
Eli Whiteside	27.7
Aaron Rowand	25.6
Chris Stewart	13.6
Carlos Beltran	10.3
Pablo Sandoval	8.8
Pat Burrell	6.9
Freddy Sanchez	5.4
Jeff Keppinger	4.5

It's no wonder that Orlando Cabrera led off while Torres was on the DL, he has a GRIT score of nearly 60 and I honestly can't wait until Manny Burris gets back.

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Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Cubs

I feel like all I do is these kinds of posts now, between being incredibly busy at work and the Giants sucking and not leaving me in the mood to write about the offense sucking everyday I guess I just don't have much to say.

Well the Giants are squandering their best opportunity to get back in the NL West race while the D-Backs are making the best of theirs. The Giants odds of making the playoffs have fallen considerably in recent weeks. It wasn't too long ago that Baseball Prospectus gave them a 70% chance now it is down to 40.3% (down over 30% in the last 7 days).

So umm, now would be a good time to start winning more games than you are losing Giants.

Doing it against the Cubs where even with your pathetic offense you are favored to win 2 out 3 games by healthy margins would be even better.

So just go and do it guys.

The odds:

	Giants	Cubs
Game 1	67%	33%
Game 2	44%	56%
Game 3	67%	33%
Sweep	20%	6%
2 out 3	45%	30%
1 out 3	30%	45%
0 out 3	6%	20%
Win Series	64%	36%
Lose Series	36%	64%

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Taking a Trip to Fantasyland

There is only so much negativity one person can take. So to try to think positive let's take the best month for each player currently on the Giants team who isn't hurt and fantasize about how good this team could be if everyone got super hot for an extended period of time.

So here is my hypothetical lineup:

		Month	Avg	OBP	SLG	wRC+
Cody Ross CF	May		0.269	0.374	0.474	140
Brandon Belt LF	August		0.273	0.368	0.606	160
Pablo Sandoval 3B	July		0.320	0.363	0.563	147
Carlos Beltran RF	July		0.280	0.419	0.500	155
Migeul Tejada SS	July		0.333	0.378	0.524	146
Aubrey Huff 1B	August		0.266	0.330	0.468	115
Mike Fontenot 2B	April		0.233	0.303	0.467	108
Eli Whiteside C	July		0.229	0.327	0.375	100
Tim Lincecum P	July		0.333	0.429	0.333	122

 

With this hypothetical lineup the Giants would score an amazing 6.031 runs per game using the Lineup Analysis tool.

If I plug this offense into my series projection model amazing things happen, instead of having 60% chances of victory against the lowly Astros the odds jump to 86%, 82% and 83% respectively for the final 3 games. This team would go from seriously flawed to a Juggernaut.

With this realization I am going to spend the rest of my waking hours crossing each of my limbs hoping for this magic occurrence of simultaneous hot streaks.

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A Snapshot of Futility

Yesterday's lineup with the weighted runs created for each for their stints with the Giants this season.

	wRC+
Orlando Cabrera SS	50
Jeff Keppinger 2B	79
Carlos Beltran RF	81
Pablo Sandoval 3B	129
Aubrey Huff 1B	82
Cody Ross CF	94
Brandon Belt LF	114
Eli Whiteside C	74
Ryan Vogelsong P	16

100 is league average and each point above or below represents a percentage point better or worse than league average.

So the Giants were playing 2 guys that were better than league average and to make things worse didn't even bunch them together.

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The One Good Thing About Last Nights Game

Even though the Giants were made to look horrible by their former farmhand Henry Sosa, there was at least one good thing from last night's game. It was my little nuggets first Giants game and one of the little perks of running a blog is that I can partake in some ego boosting self indulgence and write about it.

For those interested there is more after the jump...

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Astros (Better Late than Never)

So game one of this 4 game series sure didn't go to plan.

It was pretty ugly but surprisingly that was the game that my projecting model said that they had the least favorable chance of winning so at least in the next 3 the Giants should have a good chance to at the very least salvage a split.

When run the numbers for the final 3 games the Giants have a 25% chance of winning the final 3 with a 44% chance of at least salvaging a split. I don't even want to mention the other alternatives because that would be a huge blown chance against a not very good Astros team.

Anyway here are the full odds including last nights game:

	Giants	Astros
Game 1	57%	43%
Game 2	66%	34%
Game 3	61%	39%
Game 4	62%	38%
Sweep	14.3%	2.1%
3 of 4	36.0%	13.9%
Split	33.7%	33.7%
1 of 4	13.9%	36.0%
0 of 4	2.1%	14.3%
Win Series	50%	16%
Split	34%	34%
Lose Series	16%	50%

Just win baby.

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