Giants vs. Reds Series Projection

The Giants hot off a very nice (and to me unexpected) series victory over the Phillies head to Cincinnati to face the reeling Reds. With a tonight and tomorrow the Reds who are already 6.5 back and 5 games under .500 could be out of contention enough that they are willing to part with catcher Ramon Hernandez who would be very interesting to the Giants.

Getting a catcher with the offensive firepower of Hernandez could be as big of a boost to the Giants as getting Carlos Beltran. He doesn't have the same name cache but the marginal improvement would be on the same level. I get butterflies in my tummy thinking about a trade like that.

I built a projection tool before the Phillies series and I liked it so much that I want to keep using it so here we are and I will try to do this before every series.

Overall this was a little difficult because the Giants are not cooperating and letting us know ahead of time who the starter for Sunday's game will be. For the purposes of this projection I plugged in Barry Zito even though the Giants say they are skipping him, when a starter is announced I will update the projections.

Odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	60%	40%
Game 2	45%	55%
Game 3	73%	27%
Sweep	20.00%	5.82%
2 out 3	44.64%	29.54%
1 out 3	29.54%	44.64%
0 out 3	5.82%	20.00%
Win Series	65%	35%
Loose Series	35%	65%

The Giants pitching is superior but not overwhelmingly so with the inclusion of Zito in the projection. The Reds offense is far superior to the Giants which is what makes tilts this series in their favor and I haven't figured out a way a good way to account for the added offensive boost that comes with adding in Beltran. So take all of this with a healthy dose of salt.

Anyway, Giants I humbly request that you knock the Reds out of contention as a condition of their surrender demand Ramon Hernandez as payment. Make it so.

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