A week ago I would have said pretty emphatically that te Giants would and should be buyers. They were only a few games out of first place and the playoffs seemed like a realistic possibility.
Now that the team is in the middle of a horrible 7 game losing streak and dropped from second place just a half out of first things look much less rosey. In fact things look down right depressing.
This change makes me question the assumption that the team is in fact a contendor who could make the playoffs.
The pitching this month has not been good and that is the straw that stirs the Giants drink.
The bulpen hasn't been lights out by any means and has let down the starters when they have actually pitched well.
The offense has not been clicking and has failed to score enough runs to win consitantly. This isn't a surprise but it sure would be nice if it were an option to fall back on when the pitching wasn't top notch.
So as a Giants fan you must ask yourself is it realistic for the Giants to make the playoffs this season. I am thinking that it is looking more and more less likely each day and here is why.
1) The Padres look like they are for real and the wins they have accumulated give them a nice buffer if they go through a rough patch. In addition the Giants for some reason look like a AAA team win they face them and like a AA team if it is in Petco.
2) The Dodgers and the Rockies are both really good teams that give the Giants fits when they play them.
When you take one and two together that is alot of really tough teams that the Giants do not match up well against.
3) With the current losing streak the Giants are now just a game over .500 and are nearly at the half way point o the season. There are 83 games to be played and the NL West Champion will probably be around 90 wins. For the Giants to get there they will need to win at least 50 of their remakng games and play .600 ball.
This is a tough task fo this team. They play in a very close division and have a whole bunch of teams that they really struggle to beat that they will play alot. That is not a good omen.
4) For the Giants to win they need to play near perfect baseball. The pitching must be on. The team must play great defense and the team must have great timely hitting. If they fail in one these areas the chances of winning fall dramaticly, this is a high wire act where every game will be close but on mistep or run of bad luck can mean things go way off course (just look at the current stretch).
Putting all of this together it seems rather unlikely that the team will play baseball in October. There is alot stacked against this team and the flaws are pretty glaring. If I were to put a probability on the playoffs it would be in the 10-15 percent range and falling with every loss.
To make the playoffs the Giants only have about 33 losses they can aford this season. They should be in the race but at this point they are looking like a dark horse.
So to get back to the orgianl question should the Giants be buyers or sellers? I think both is te beat answer. All of the veterens should be available to other teams for reasonable prices and if someone goes into fire sale mode the Giants should not hesitate to make a deal that can make the team better over the long term.
If your on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.
As much as I want the Giants to stay in this thing, I think being sellers would benefit them a lot down the road. Other than perhaps Prince Fielder, the market really isn't that good. David DeJesus would be a nice grab, but the outfield is crowded as heck and it would only give more reasons for Bochy to screw up the offense.
ReplyDeleteI think the Giants have a lot of pieces they can deal. Renteria is actually having a decent year, so shipping him may be quite easy, especially considering he is a SS (Philly maybe? Or pehaps Boston?) Also, I would like to see what the Giants could spin for F. Sanchez. I know he's hitting well, but his wOBA is still low (.314 entering today, but he probably raised it after getting three hits) and I don't think he offers much upside for this team (success heavily dependent on BABIP; no power, etc). Sanchez could produce a nice return, especially to a team with middle infield troubles. I think Uribe and Downs and Rohlinger could eaisly hold down the fort at second.
Of course, it all depends on what happens. Fielder would be a nice addition, but the Dodgers and Rockies are so stacked offensively, I just don't see us competing down the stretch unless our pitching really comes on or if their pitching implodes. Thus, I'm not down for giving Fielder a slew of prospects if it all comes down to naught.
The Giants will not be sellers at the trade deadline. Sabean's days as a Giants GM are numbered. He needs to pull off a trade for a bat to get them over the hump, or the Sabean era will be ending. He knows this, so count the Giants as buyers, and probably will make a trade sooner rather then later...
ReplyDeleteKing of Cali
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