Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Taking a closer look at ESPN’s SportsNation Braves vs. Giants Poll Questions

On ESPN's SportsNation they have a bunch of polls up about the different division series matchups. The questions about the Braves and Giants raise some interesting questions (and not just because of the questionable stats used).

So let's take a closer look:

Question 1:

Who had the better rookie season? Jason Heyward (.849 OPS, .270 BA, 18 HR, 72 RBI) or Buster Posey (.862 OPS, .305 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI).

At first glance this looks like a very close matchup but you must also remember that Heyward played 34 more games then Posey did due to starting the season with the big club. In my mind that makes Posey's counting stats more impressive if you take his current rate and project them to 623 PA that Heyward had you get this line:

Posey: .305 BA, 25 HR, 32 2B, 94 RBI

Having done that there are still a number of areas where Heyward has excelled over Posey, primarily the ability to get on base. Heyward nearly pulled off an amazing feat for a rookie posting an OBP of .393! He had nearly a walk for every strikeout which is an amazing skill for a rookie who is just breaking into the league.

I could go either way with this one, but in the end I lean toward Posey for putting up very similar offensive numbers while playing a much harder defensive position.

So America is voting with me but this to me could go either way, I think that they are swayed by the stats posted here where it is favorable to Posey.

Question 2:

Which closer is better? Billy Wagner or Brian Wilson.

Talk about a crap shoot. These 2 guys are both extremely good and amazing well matched statistically.

Take a look:

Billy Wagner: 69.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, FIP 2.10, 0.89 WPA, 37 SV, 7 BS, 2.2 WAR

Brian Wilson: 74.2 IP, 11.21 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, FIP 2.19, 4.14 WPA, 48 SV, 5 BS, 2.7 WAR

The other thing is that both of these guys have hard fastballs 95.6 mph and 95.9 mph respectively, which hitters swing and miss at high rates.

You really couldn't go wrong with either of these guys anchoring a bullpen but I think again that I lean toward Wilson who has shown that this season he can consistently go longer then just 1 inning and he excels in the high leverage situations.

America is leaning the other way and I can't say that they are wrong. Wagner has been a very good pitcher I just think that Wilson has done more in higher pressure situations and that sways my vote.

Question 3:

Who is a more valuable player? Omar Infante (No. 2 in NL BA, No. 80 in NL WAR) or Andres Torres (No. 7 in NL WAR, No. 41 in NL BA)

Well first and foremost the fact that Torres rates 73 places higher in Wins Above Replacement should be a significant boost in why he's a much more valuable player but we can look deeper.

Omar Infante: .321/ .359/ .416, 15 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 7 SB, 2.8 WAR

Andres Torres: .268/ .343/ .479, 43 2B, 8 3B, 16 HR, 26 SB, 6.0 WAR

When you look beyond the fact that Infante has a batting average that is 50 points higher you see that Torres just about beats him in every other category. Even with a 50 point lead in batting average he only has a 16 point gap in OBP and he trails in everything else. If you look a little further at the wOBA Torres has the lead.

If you look further beyond the hitting numbers you see that Torres is again vastly superior. In the outfield Torres is an elite defender with a UZR on the season of 21.5 compared to Infante who plays all over but is average overall with a UZR for the season of -0.1. On top of that Torres also adds quite a bit of value with his speed on the base paths.

Compared to the other questions this one is not really close at all after a deeper look. Torres is a much more valuable player.

I think that America is crazy here. This shouldn't be close at all and I think that it is because of the numbers they chose to present along with the question. Batting average only tells part of the story of a players value, sure Infante has excelled at getting singles but that is about it. Torres gets on base at nearly the same rate, hits for much more power, has better speed and has an elite glove in the outfield. It shouldn't be close, America I am disappointed.

Question 4:

Which Manager is better? Bobby Cox or Bruce Bochy.

I am not sure exactly how to go to much deeper here. Just on the top of my mind both skippers I am sure have made some questionable decisions and some brilliant decisions. In the end though I still don't think that a manager has that much impact on how good a team will be over the course of the season the magnitude is probably only a 2-3 wins either way.

In a short playoff series the difference is probably not that big of a deal. Both guys probably follow the traditional wisdom of baseball and look at small sample sizes and try to make decisions. So really it is probably a wash.

If I had to choose between the two I would lean toward Cox but I do like that Bochy isn't a big sacrifice bunter and he seems to manage the pitching staff well.

Again I vote with America (and it isn't close, as of this writing Cox takes every state in the country and has the lead by a wide margin) but my opinion on this is not that strong maybe someone else can fight the good fight on who is more deserving.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Ramon Ramirez's Clutch 7th Inning Performance



Ramon Ramirez came up huge to the one batter he faced in the top of the 7th inning.

Praise the Baseball Gods!

Santiago Casilla had pitched well in relief for Jonathan Sanchez but with a single and an error Bruce Bochy went to the pen. This ended up being the second biggest moment of the game behind only the jam the Casilla worked out of with a risky double play in the 6th.

I am sure the Bruce Bochy saw that nice sub 3 ERA and felt good but I was popping antacids and pacing in front of the TV at the thought of the 3.50 BB/9 and 4.23 FIP this season. To put it shortly I was nervous that he would walk the go ahead run in front of Adrian Gonzalez who would rip our hearts out.

Luckily the baseball gods smiled upon us and Miguel Tejada was sent back to the bench.
Those were 9 of the hardest pitches I have ever watched. I am head over heels happy that things worked out for the Giants but I discovered the only guys in the bullpen that don't make me want to pee my pants are Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez (against lefties I feel pretty good, against righties not as much).

This may be a long playoffs if the other guys in the pen get used too much with no margin for error.


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Blog Round Up for Reactions to NL West Title

With the number of awesome Giants Blogs out there it is nice to look around and see what everyone had to say about the sweet sweet victory that put the Giants over the top.

A link and a snipet of the good stuff to relive the glory that was Sunday.

Jonathan Sanchez pitched the San Francisco Giants back into the playoffs after a six-year absence and also provided a clutch hit, beating the San Diego Padres 3-0 Sunday to win the NL West title.

Buster Posey homered and the Giants beat the Padres after losing the first two games of the weekend series.
8th Inning Weirdness: SF 3, SD 0: NL West Champs
But on Sunday, Jonathan Sanchez got it done and he was magnificent. Yes, this game was a classic Giants game: great pitching and just enough offense. It's fitting that the Giants would make us go through the torture til the very end.
Bay City Ball: Magic Happens, Giants Win NL West
If this season was a candy bar, it would be dark chocolate with a creamy torturous filling. And peanuts, it would have peanuts for some reason. In handing the Padres a 3-0 defeat today, the Giants are your official 2010 champs on the National League West. It wasn’t always pretty but the Giants made it. This might be the most genuinely likable Giants’ team I’ve seen in awhile.
Croix De Candlestick: It's Postseason Inside
The bearded closer stares intently towards the plate, looking in for the sign.  The rookie catcher puts down one finger, and the closer comes set.  He goes into his delivery as time slows down.  Through all the disappointment marred by double plays, crippling defeat at the hands of the Padres, and the torture that is Giants baseball, it has all culminated in this one, final pitch of the regular season.  The mohawked flamethrower rears back and delivers.  One 98 mph fastball and a swing-through later, the Giants are the champions of the National League West.

El Lefty Malo: Giants Baseball: Playoff Torture!
I don't make a habit of watching baseball teams clinch division titles on their home fields, but I have to wonder how often a team takes time from the dog-piling and ass-grabbing and champagne-spraying to take a long giddy lap around the field to high-five every fan they can reach. If it's a common occurrence, please don't tell me because I love the illusion that this team, these Giants, knew how much we fans suffered and soiled ourselves this year and made that lap, led of course by a skipping, jiggling Panda, to thank us. It was sweet.
Fire Sabean: It's Playoff Beard Time
Calling all men… and probably some women, IT’S PLAYOFF BEARD TIME! And we here at Firesabean want you to…SHOW US YOUR BEARD
Frisco Fastball: Giants Capture National League West Crown
They stretched it to the final day. The final hours. The final moments. Torture? Yeah, you could say that. But winning the NL West crown sure tastes that much sweeter with the unique struggle.
Giatns Win: At Last
I've gotta say that it's appropriate that Will Venable, son of Giant Max Venable, made the last out of the season on a Brian Wilson heater -- and that it occurred on the 59th anniversary of Bobby Thomson's Miracle of Coogan's Bluff.

Golden Gate Giants: Your San Francisco Giants: 2010 NL West Champions
What a way to end it.


The Giants, the team that’s tortured us all year long, clinched their first division title since 2003 with a 3-0 win over the Padres today. And they won it the Giants way: just enough offense coupled with dominant pitching.
In the Shadow of Bonds: Giants get the last laugh. Padres go home losers!
So Giants fans get out your champagne, your beer, or whatever your poison is. Kick back and celebrate the Giants first postseason since 2003!


Playoffs baby!
McCovey Chronicles: Giants win the National League West
Man, this team, this disparate collection of personalities, has been absolutely amazing to watch.
Only Baseball Matters: ...Yes They Can!!!!
The Giants win the NL West!!!
Raising Matt Cain: Triumph! Torture! Triumph!
The Giants take the Long & Agonizing Road to the West title, but that matters not after today's tortuous 3-0 triumph over the team's nemesis, the San Diego Padres. The 2010 Giants do what I did not believe they were capable of--going to the playoffs. It's a fantastic feeling to be wrong! Nothing but zeros by the pitching staff, just enough offense by Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, and Rookie of the Year Buster Posey.
Remember '51: The 2010 San Francisco Giants, NL West Champions
Those eight words haunt me. They give me shivers. In June, if you would have told me the Giants would be NL West Champs, I would have laughed. Not because I didn't believe, but because it just didn't seem possible. Not with Aaron Rowand patrolling center field. Not with Bengie Molina playing catcher. Not with Freddy Sanchez on the disabled list and Edgar Renteria rotating between shortstop and the disabled list.

But it happened...and what can I say. I couldn't be more shocked and happy as a Giants fan.
Splashing Pumpkins: Magic
In what's been the 2010 tradition, the Giants waited till the last minute to succeed, taking the National League West division title in game #162.
Triples Alley: How the West was Won: Magic
So yes, there is indeed magic inside the 2010 Giants. I think. I’m not sure.

When the Giants Come to Town: Game Wrap: Giants 3 Padres 0 Giants Win the NL West!!

Given the history of the San Francisco Giants, and the failure of the Giants to clinch the NL West Championship when they had a chance in the first two games of this series, a Giants fan could very reasonably have had their doubts going into today's final game of the regular season. On the other hand, some of the greatest moments in this franchise's history have come when things looked the bleakest. Jonathan Sanchez pitched the game of his life, yes, I know he has pitched a no-hitter, but this one was for a championship. The offense, frustrated at seemingly every turn, kept hitting the ball hard and a few finally found some gaps to give them just enough runs to finally make them NL West Champions, holding off those Pesky, Pesky Padres!


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Sunday, October 3, 2010

2010 NL West Champions




It took longer then everyone wanted but it is just as sweet.

It wouldn't have been the torture Giants if it didn't come down to the wire but in the end the having to wait for it made it that much sweeter.

You couldn't have written a better ending to a torturous season.

Here's to a torturous playoffs.





If your on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.