Lincecum to the ‘Pen? A Scout says that is where he will end up

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This has got to be the most unexpected news that I have heard today. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal quotes a scout that thinks that Tim Lincecum's days as a starter are numbered.

A scout who attended Tim Lincecum's recent eight-inning, one-run start
against the Rockies, says, "That's the best I've seen him all year. His stuff is
not back, but he's getting people out.

"He was getting his curveball over. His command was better. But I'm not
seeing more arm strength. It was about average, at times a click above.

"It will be an interesting question this winter: Where is he? What does he
have left? I think he'll end up in the bullpen."

This has got to be one of the biggest overreactions to a bad month that I have seen in a long while. Lincecum has struggled this season and is not the same dominating force he has been the last 2 seasons but demoted to the bullpen? Really?

Even in a down year Tim Lincecum is still a top tier pitcher. He has produced 4.2 WAR which has him ranked 5^th in the National League and 12^th overall. That's above guys like Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia and Mat Latos who no one sees as ready to be sent out to pasture for mop up duty.

This is also coming off of 3 starts where he has looked much sharper and in his last 2 starts where he is 2-0, 2.45 ERA, 20 Ks, 1 BB.

I may have written about the drop in velocity and have worried about Timmy this season but not because I think he is finished. Even if the velocity never returns Lincecum is still a very good pitcher and a special talent.

Barring an injury I don't see him in the bullpen anytime soon and suggesting that he could be there as soon as next season is probably the dumbest thing I have heard today, thanks unnamed scout for the lunchtime laughter.

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The Rookie Cycle of Death

Bruce Bochy is known for his veteran love. He sticks with his guys and plays them through thick or thin. He doesn't trust rookies and looks for every reason to pull them out of the starting lineup.

He is such a believer in his system that he is coming out with a book that you can buy real soon. The manual is titled "It Gets Better with Age" and it will be sold at his website http://www.grittyvets.com/.

Here the abridged version from the Chapter titled "Get Off My Lawn! How to Handle Kids Who Don't Have Gray Hair":

Step 1 for managing a rookie:

Bring up a surging young player from AAA and have him sit on the bench for the first couple of days to get used to the ebb and flow of Big League baseball. Continue to step 2.

Step 2 for managing a rookie:

Make sure his first start is against a tough pitcher in a hostile environment if possible. Continue to step 3.

Step 3 for managing a rookie:

Let the kid play for a couple of weeks take very careful notice of how he does in those 30-50 plate appearances that will tell you just about everything you need to know about how the kid will play in the Major Leagues. Continue to step 4.

Step 4 for managing a rookie:

A) If the kid struggles or shows any signs of platoon splits in his first 2 weeks if he isn't ready for the big show and he should promptly be benched. It's sad but true that rookies don't know how to work through slumps; they just don't have the proven track record like veterans and true gamers. Continue to step 5A.

B) If the kid does ok we will keep an eye on him but still bench him for a few days to make sure he doesn't get a big head. Continue to step 5B.

Step 5 for managing a rookie:

A) Give the struggling rookie spot starts every other week while pinch hitting him 2 times a week, if he doesn't start hitting .500 he is done and needs more seasoning and dues paying in the minors. Send the rookie back to the minors or bench him for the foreseeable future and proceed to step 1 if he ever comes back.

B) Continue to give the rookie who is playing well only 3-4 starts per week to keep his young legs fresh, remember he doesn't have 15 years experience yet and his body hasn't built any tolerance for the major league grind. Continue to step 6.

Step 6 for managing a rookie:

If the rookie shows any sign of struggle continue go to step 5A. You must look carefully for signs of fatigue or struggle, even wiping ones forehead on a hot muggy day in Cincinnati might be sign of breaking down. It is a fact that he will struggle, it is a near certainty. It is almost impossible for someone under the age of 30 has ever succeeded in baseball for extended periods of time. If no signs of struggle continue to step 7.

Step 7 for managing a rookie:

Bench the kid anyway for a week as a preemptive measure against the coming failure. If he struggles after the week off proceed to step 5A. If he continues to play well continue to step 8.

Step 8 for managing a rookie:

Congratulations you may have found a big leaguer. The kid might be ready for the majors but it is still not guaranteed. Watch his every move and be quick to pull the plug at the first trip up. He is slowly building a track record, but tread carefully rookies are known to have sophomore slumps which we will go over in the next chapter titled "Not a Rookie, but Still Not a Veteran: How to Handle the Tween Years"

I hope that you enjoyed this sneak peak and that it gives you some insight into the mind of our fearless leader Bruce Bochy.

Matt Cain Snubbed for Pitcher of the Week

Two lines to look at:

2-0, 16.0 innings, 9 strike outs, 3 walks and a 0.56 ERA

2-0, 12.1 innings, 22 strike outs, 5 walks and a 2.19 ERA

Both are strong lines, the first belongs to one Matt Cain and the second belongs to the phenom Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg beat out Cain to be the pitcher of the week and maybe it is just my Giants bias clouding my vision but Cain seemed to have a little bit better of a week that has been a continuation of a hot 5 start stretch. However the writers who vote on these things saw it differently maybe they have beeen watching too much ESPN.

Cain can't seem to get any love or catch any breaks. First he has no run support over his career which has killed his W-L record even with outstanding pitching. The last couple of years even when he has pitched exceptionally he has been in the shadow of Tim Lincecum and now that he is having arguably his best stretch of pitching in his career it is being overlooked because of the debut of Strasburg.

Just a continuation of the hard luck for Cain.

Bochy and His Guys:

Bruce Bochy has talked about the way that he manages his team, in a nutshell Bochy has his guys and it takes a sign from God to make him loose faith in them. This is his is strategy, in the beginning of the season he decided which people on the team were his guys and that he is going to stick with him until the end.

Bochy's core guys have seemed to be Pablo Sandoval, Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina and Edgar Renteria and these are the ones that with Bochy at the helm are the ones that will take us to the playoff. Andrew Baggarly on the Murph and Mac show in defending this mind frame said that you don't quit on a player that you have classified as one of your core guys. That the season is a 162 game marathon and that sticking with your guys through their up and downs is the best way to manage the day to day.

However if you look at last season you can see that this state of mind hurt the Giants last season when Edgar Renteria was obviously hurting and not the same.

This one I agree much less with. I understand where Baggs and Bochy are coming from. You have the guys that make up your core and these are the guys that will bring you to the dance or leave you waiting outside.

However I think that if your guys are in a funk you should be able to give them some time off to work on their things and get their mojo back. For some reason Bochy has less trouble doing this with the pitchers; when they are struggling mightily he has no problem skipping a start or sending them to the bullpen for a little while, but heaven forbid giving a position player 2 or 3 days off to work things out.

I think that sticking with your guys is a good thing, but when things are going horrible it can be a disservice to the rest of the team to keep going with your “guys” if they are a detriment to the team as a whole. I think that Bochy needs to find the right balance between playing his guys no matter what and doing what is in the best interest of the team.

Right now it seems that things are a little to slanted toward helping out the guys instead of the team.

Explaning Aaron Rowand's Slump

Aaron Rowand has always been a bit of a streaky kind of player but right now he is stuck in a major slump.

I would date the slump starting in San Diego before the slump Rowand was putting up good numbers and was worthy of the playing time he was granted. He was good enough that I wrote a piece lauding his achievements and said this season could be a continuance of his every third year tendencies. Well that now makes me look like an idiot and I want to figure out what has changed.

To start the season Rowand was putting up the best numbers of his Giants career and beginning to make people think that maybe the contract he signed wasn't the worst thing in the world. He was putting up a .321/.354/.564 line in 17 games and 82 plate appearances. He was keeping the strikeouts under control with a k% of only 15%, the biggest complaint is that he still wasn't taking walks with only 2 over the span.

Then something changed.

Aaron Rowand the Every third Year Hall of Famer:

There seems to be a pattern that is developing with Aaron Rowand and even he can't seem to explain why, but don't fret I have put my science cap on and have discoverd the answer.

It is against my better statistical judgment to think that maybe there is some that clicks on in Aaron Rowand every three years but the numbers just slap in you the face and make you think that something is up.

Maybe to most it would seem to be a coincidence that his offensive outburst just happens to coincide with el Niño years. However I have crunched the numbers and run the experiments in my bath tube and this is the best, nay the only explanation for the naturally occuring phenomenon.

This triennial eruption is a welcome break from the league average hitter that we see every other season and it really couldn’t come at a better time for the Giants who desperately need offense to go with a league best pitching staff.

Let’s take a gander at the gamer's career numbers vs. league average:

Bochy Made the Right Call…On Wilson Pitching but not with Velez in LF:

It may not have been popular at all but pulling Tim Lincecum after 8 and a third was the right call. Yes Timmy had been dominate through 8 with 11 strike outs and no walks, but at the end of the game and a 4 pitch walk where every fastball was up you could see that he was fatigued. The heart of the lineup was coming up this was the correct call.

Before this implosion Brian Wilson had been pitching like he was mad at the world and just mowing people down. He had an 11.05 k/9 against 3.68 bb/9 and a 0.00 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Those are great numbers and inspire trust.

I find no fault what so ever in Bochy going to Wilson, it was the call that I would have made. I think that if that ball is another couple inches to the right and Wilson gets the last out this isn’t an issue. It is only with hindsight that this looks like a bad decision. It is not like he went with the third or fourth best arm in the bullpen.

It was the right call, Lincecum is still great even if he was only at 65-70% however this really increases the chances of a hanger or another mistake pitch and I really like and trust Wilson in tight high leverage situations.

It is hard to believe how quick the fans (who we just talked up too) seemed to turn on Wilson (or maybe Bochy), but I guess that is the life of a closer. I felt like it was a kick in the nuts but it was the right call. I have had my problems with Bochy but this time I feel that he did the right thing.

The one decision that I will not defend is Eugenio Velez playing left field in critical situations. Any time the ball is hit out to him I have to concentrate on not having a bowel movement from nervousness. Today is not an exception, the first play ok it was tough and maybe a 50-50 play for even a good fielder. The second botched fielding job however is inexcusable; an average high schooler should make that play. The second run was a back breaker and it is all on Velez. That second run was the margin of victory and cost the Giants a sweep of a really good ball club.