Last week, I wrote about the cost benefit analysis of the possible trade of Jose Reyes and my rough calculation was that Reyes is worth about $25 million to the Giants and the Giants top pitching prospect was worth about the same.
After I wrote that, Julian from Splashing Pumpkins left a link to some tools to help analyze trades and value of prospects. I wanted to try to use these tools to get a better idea of what this trade would mean for the Giants.
First up; what the Giants would get. Jose Reyes has already accumulated 2.9 WAR and the first go round I simply extrapolated that for the rest of the season. This probably overstated his value so this time I used the ZIPS rest of the season projections as the baseline for determining his rest of the season WAR.
This gave us a 3.9 WAR for a value of $18 million. The remainder on his contract is about $7.8 million and I assumed that he will be a Type A Free Agent so that is added in at the bottom as well. In addition, I also gave him a bonus for the bump in expected revenue for making the playoffs with him on the team.
Jose Reyes | ||||
Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
2011 | $7.8 | 3.9 | $18.0 | $10.2 |
FA Picks | $5.0 | |||
Playoff Revenue | $2.3 | |||
Total | $7.8 | 3.9 | $25.2 | $17.4 |
The final net value for Reyes ended up at $17.4 million for the rest of the season.
I did the something similar for Zach Wheeler but with a number of assumptions. First, I assumed that he would make the majors in 2013 and once he made the majors, he would have an expected WAR of 1.575. I came to that number by assuming the following probabilities for his future performance:
WAR | Probability | xWAR |
0 | 0.25 | 0 |
5 | 0.0375 | 0.1875 |
4 | 0.075 | 0.3 |
3 | 0.1125 | 0.3375 |
2 | 0.225 | 0.45 |
1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
1.575 |
Then, I took this number and plugged it into the same calculator as the one used in the Reyes analysis. For his team controlled years, I put in a league minimum salary of $400k and estimated his arbitration salary at 40%, 60%, and 80% of FA value in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years, respectively.
After that, I also put everything into present value terms using a discount rate of 10%, which is seen in the column NPV.
With this tool, Wheeler's net present value to the Giants is $19.4 million, which is still $2 million more than what Reyes would be worth to the team.
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Zach Wheeler | |||||
Year | Sal (M) | xWAR | Val (M) | Net (M) | NPV |
2011 | $0.0 | 0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 |
2012 | $0.0 | 0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 |
2013 | $0.4 | 1.6 | $7.5 | $7.1 | $5.3 |
2014 | $0.4 | 1.6 | $7.5 | $7.1 | $4.9 |
2015 | $0.4 | 1.6 | $7.5 | $7.1 | $4.4 |
2016 | $3.0 | 1.6 | $7.5 | $4.5 | $2.5 |
2017 | $4.5 | 1.6 | $7.5 | $3.0 | $1.5 |
2018 | $6.0 | 1.6 | $7.6 | $1.6 | $0.8 |
FA Picks | $0.0 | ||||
Total | $4.2 | 9.5 | $45.0 | $40.8 | $19.4 |
With this tool, Wheeler's net present value to the Giants is $19.4 million, which is still $2 million more than what Reyes would be worth to the team.
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