A Shortstop Trade That Does Make Sense for the Giants

Lately, I have been looking at the Jose Reyes trade because that seems to be the dream target for many Giants fans. I have looked at the numbers and it just doesn't seem to make sense with any deal for him starting with Zach Wheeler and likely costing some more talent.

If there was a middle infield trade target that I thought did fit, it would likely be the Orioles J.J. Hardy. If Hardy is healthy, he is a very valuable player and should be available at a much more reasonable cost than Reyes.

For this, I will run through the same exercise that I did previously.

Hardy is projected to do pretty well over the remainder of the season (if he's healthy), with a 2.2 WAR, a large portion of that coming from his glove. He is owed a reasonable $4.2 million this season, which would give him a surplus value of $6 million and, on top of that, MLB Trade Rumors has him projected to be a Type A Free Agent next year, which gives him another boost of $5 million in value.

Here is the breakdown:

J.J. Hardy
Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2011	$4.2	2.2	$10.2	$6.0
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$4.2	2.2	$15.2	$11.0

The rumored cost of Hardy would be along the lines of a B prospect. According to research done by Victor Wang, that breaks down to about $5.5 million in expected value. For the Giants, I have used Thomas Neal as an example and my estimates came out to a value of $8.2 million, so I think it is pretty much in line with what we should expect.

Thomas Neal
Year	Sal (M)	xWAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	NPV
2011	$0.0	0.00	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0
2012	$0.4	0.54	$2.8	$2.4	$2.2
2013	$0.4	0.54	$2.8	$2.4	$2.0
2014	$0.4	0.54	$2.8	$2.4	$1.8
2015	$1.1	0.54	$2.8	$1.7	$1.2
2016	$1.7	0.54	$2.8	$1.1	$0.7
2017	$2.26	0.54	$2.8	$0.6	$0.3
Total	$4.0	3.2	$16.9	$12.9	$8.2

Based on this analysis, a trade for J.J. Hardy would be a net positive in value for the Giants. This is also dealing from an area of depth for the Giants, who have a bit of a crowded outfield and no real place on the big league club for Neal.

If Brandon Crawford isn't the answer at shortstop, maybe Hardy could be the option that the Giants go after to bolster one of their obvious weaknesses.

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More Jose Reyes Trade Thoughts

Last week, I wrote about the cost benefit analysis of the possible trade of Jose Reyes and my rough calculation was that Reyes is worth about $25 million to the Giants and the Giants top pitching prospect was worth about the same.

After I wrote that, Julian from Splashing Pumpkins left a link to some tools to help analyze trades and value of prospects. I wanted to try to use these tools to get a better idea of what this trade would mean for the Giants.

First up; what the Giants would get. Jose Reyes has already accumulated 2.9 WAR and the first go round I simply extrapolated that for the rest of the season. This probably overstated his value so this time I used the ZIPS rest of the season projections as the baseline for determining his rest of the season WAR.

This gave us a 3.9 WAR for a value of $18 million. The remainder on his contract is about $7.8 million and I assumed that he will be a Type A Free Agent so that is added in at the bottom as well. In addition, I also gave him a bonus for the bump in expected revenue for making the playoffs with him on the team.

Jose Reyes
Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2011	$7.8	3.9	$18.0	$10.2
FA Picks			$5.0
Playoff Revenue			$2.3
Total	$7.8	3.9	$25.2	$17.4

The final net value for Reyes ended up at $17.4 million for the rest of the season.

I did the something similar for Zach Wheeler but with a number of assumptions. First, I assumed that he would make the majors in 2013 and once he made the majors, he would have an expected WAR of 1.575. I came to that number by assuming the following probabilities for his future performance:

WAR	Probability	xWAR
0	0.25	0
5	0.0375	0.1875
4	0.075	0.3
3	0.1125	0.3375
2	0.225	0.45
1	0.3	0.3
		1.575

Then, I took this number and plugged it into the same calculator as the one used in the Reyes analysis. For his team controlled years, I put in a league minimum salary of $400k and estimated his arbitration salary at 40%, 60%, and 80% of FA value in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years, respectively.

After that, I also put everything into present value terms using a discount rate of 10%, which is seen in the column NPV.

Zach Wheeler
Year	Sal (M)	xWAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	NPV
2011	$0.0	0.0	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0
2012	$0.0	0.0	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0
2013	$0.4	1.6	$7.5	$7.1	$5.3
2014	$0.4	1.6	$7.5	$7.1	$4.9
2015	$0.4	1.6	$7.5	$7.1	$4.4
2016	$3.0	1.6	$7.5	$4.5	$2.5
2017	$4.5	1.6	$7.5	$3.0	$1.5
2018	$6.0	1.6	$7.6	$1.6	$0.8
FA Picks			$0.0
Total	$4.2	9.5	$45.0	$40.8	$19.4

With this tool, Wheeler's net present value to the Giants is $19.4 million, which is still $2 million more than what Reyes would be worth to the team.

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The Giants Historically Bad Offense

The Giants offense is sputtering and is on pace to be the worst offense in the San Francisco era and the worst on a per game basis since 1902.

In the history of the franchise, the Giants have always been one of the better hitting teams in the league. This proud tradition of good hitting teams makes the current iteration of the offense really hard to stand. The 2011 offense has two regulars with an OPS+ above 100 in Freddy Sanchez and Andres Torres. Their two best hitters are on the disabled list and the rest of the lineup is filled with guys that are having career worst years.

When you add up all of this, it's no wonder that you get a team averaging 3.4 runs per game. Yet somehow, this team, despite being outscored, is above .500 and still well in the thick of the playoff hunt. I guess having a historically good pitching staff can cover for a lot.

Here are the worst ten scoring teams in the Giants history and their winning percentages:

Year W-L% Runs per game
1902 0.353 2.87234042553192
2011 0.538 3.40384615384615
1985 0.383 3.4320987654321
1956 0.435 3.50649350649351
1992 0.444 3.54320987654321
1980 0.466 3.55900621118012
1943 0.359 3.57692307692308
1976 0.457 3.67283950617284
1968 0.543 3.67484662576687
1907 0.536 3. 70322580645161

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What Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford can give to the Giants

Kevin O'Brien, who is a contributor here and runs the excellent Giants farm blog, Optioned to Fresno, gives us a great idea of what to expect with the new Brandons that joined the Giants yesterday.

First up, uber prospect Brandon Belt:

Belt though was far from perfect in Fresno. He struck out 31 times, a 30.6 percent rate. Furthermore, his contact rate wasn't very impressive at 69 percent (you read that right). While Belt wasn't overpowered or overwhelmed by the Pacific Coast League pitching, it was obvious that his plate patience was his worst enemy at times. Belt seemed to be almost too selective, and he ended up helping pitchers by getting behind in counts early and often in many of his at-bats. Now, I don't think Belt will be a 69 percent contact hitter in the Majors. In his short tenure with the Giants earlier this year, he posted a contact rate of 77.7, so his low contact rate may have just been a stretch where he was figuring out the pitching and what he could hit for power and what he could lay off of. Nonetheless, Belt probably needs to show more aggressiveness at the dish this time around in the Majors, for he is needed to spark this Giants offense, and MLB pitchers won't make as many mistakes as PCL hurlers.

Another issue for Belt is the decrease in power from a year ago. After posting slugging percentages of .623 in Richmond and .563 in Fresno a season ago, Belt's slugging dipped to .525 this year. Also his ISO fell to .188 with the Grizzlies, the first time it had ever been under the .200 mark in his minor league career. Still though, Belt does offer a lot of offensive upside, even with the power numbers down, and if you look at his competition, Belt doesn't need to be incredible offensively (Huff has a slugging of .337 and Ross has a slugging of .378). If he can be in the mid-to-high .700 (or even low .800) range in terms of OPS for the remainder of the year in San Francisco, and if he can continue to display his solid eye at the plate (he did produce a BB/K ratio of 0.62 in the Majors this year), then Belt certainly will be a boost to this inconsistent Giants offense (and it is possible in my opinion, as his Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced an OPS of .896).

My general thought is the expectations for Belt are going to be too high. With him coming up to replace the offensive void left by the injured Buster Posey, if he doesn't get hot right away, fans may turn on him and he may lose whatever confidence he built up in AAA. This is a concern of mine that probably won't go away for a while.

Next is someone who may not be as familar to casual followers of the farm system, Brandon Crawford. Crawford is a South Bay native and a former fourth round pick out of UCLA. Here is the skinny on him:

The big question for Crawford will be how he will adjust in the Majors after relatively struggling in the Eastern League the past two years. His Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced a .226 average, a .303 OBP, a .347 slugging, a .650 OPS, a contact rate of 77 percent and a BB/K ratio of 0.47. Those numbers aren't exactly on par with what Giants fans saw from Crawford this year in San Jose. Nonetheless, Crawford may be okay if he can post those numbers this year, or perhaps perform slightly above. Crawford is a solid defender who has gotten good reports from scouts and the Giants brass. An OPS in the .700 range would be a luxury for this Giants team considering his defense, and even an OPS in the mid .600 range would be tolerable. After all, he hasn't played beyond Double-A, so there is going to be a learning period for Crawford at the plate, and the Giants management and fans need to be patient as he develops.

Crawford may have been called up prematurely because of the dire need for depth in the Giants infield with Fontenot and Pablo Sandoval on the DL. That being said, this stint with the Giants will be very telling for Crawford. If he can hold his own somewhat, it'll give the Giants even more incentive to hand him the starting position next year. If not, then one could see the Giants management panic and look to deal for Jose Reyes, which would cost the Giants a lot of money in addition to some valuable prospects. I'm not expecting the world from Crawford in this callup. But if he can be a replacement-level player offensively, he could be of some value to this Giants roster because he still has room to grow and develop as a player, and he's an obvious upgrade over Miguel Tejada defensively at shortstop.

This is in line with what I expected from Crawford as well. If he hits at all, he is valuable. Before the season, I made a nice little graph showing where he would need to hit to be more valuable than Miguel Tejada. He just needs to hit at the current Tejada level (.230 wOBA) assuming that Tejada rebounds to his ZIPS in season projection of .280 wOBA.

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Buster Posey Injured

UPDATE: CSN reporter Amy Gutierrez is reporting this via twitter:

Unofficial update: #sfgiants Chris Stewart and Brandon Belt called up. Ford to D.L. Posey has broken leg and torn ligaments.

Mychael Urban says it is a broken ankle. Either way, it is really bad news. It is unlikely that Posey plays again this season.

Buster Posey got absolutely steamrolled in the 12th inning last night and the early word is that it is "not good."

Here is the play if you haven't seen it. The Giants had him have x-rays after the game and he is scheduled for an MRI today.

Here is the latest information courtesy of Andrew Baggerly:

First, the latest on his condition: Posey went for X-rays on his left ankle and he will have an MRI Thursday morning. The Giants did not release X-ray results and they won’t have anything new until Thursday morning, when they are expected to make multiple roster moves. (Mike Fontenot hurt his groin in the game, too, and Darren Ford probably was headed to the DL with an ankle injury, anyway.)

But a club official put it to me this way: “Not good.”

Broken?

“Not good.”

For now, all I can tell you is the Giants are very concerned, they are saying prayers, and they did not react harshly to Scott Cousins’ decision to go high and hard while scoring the tiebreaking run for Florida in the 12th inning.

If this turns out to be a serious injury, which it appears to be at first glance, this could have huge ramifications on the Giants season and possibly future. The Giants haven't had the best of luck with injuries this season, but this is the worst one to strike yet.

This was a great game for the Giants. They fought back with what had to be the longest streak ever of bloop hits, but none of that matters anymore. I would have gladly lost a blowout to keep Posey. Someone needs to organize a grief counselor for the Bay Area because I think everyone needs it right about now.

Any significant loss of time of Posey, the Giants best everyday player, could mean two or three wins for this team and make the playoff race much closer than anyone would ever want it to be. I hope that this is a case where it looks worse than it actually is; maybe it will just be a bad sprain with no significant damage done.

At this point, hope is all we have left.

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LIFE Publishes Never-Seen Photos of Willie Mays

In honor of the 60th anniversary of his call up to the major leagues, LIFE magazine is releasing previously unpublished photos of the greatest baseball player ever, Willie Mays.

With all due respect to Aaron, Musial, and even Ruth, Willie Mays was the greatest all-around player baseball's ever seen. The epitome of the "five tool" threat -- he could run, throw, field, hit for average and with astonishing power -- Mays bedeviled opponents and thrilled fans for more than two decades. Here, on the 60th anniversary of his 1951 major league debut, LIFE.com presents previously unpublished photos of Mays by Loomis Dean, Alfred Eisenstaedt, and Ralph Morse from the '50s and '60s -- an era when the Say Hey Kid's preternatural talent and infectious joy on the diamond provided millions with one more giant reason to love the game.

h/t to Baseball Musings.

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Cost Benefit Analysis of a Jose Reyes Trade

With the struggles of Miguel Tejada this season, many Giants fans are looking for an alternative at shortstop. I have to say that I am in the same place because a .220/.241/.280 line was not what people were expecting when he signed his one year deal. His current line is worse than what I expected even in my worst case scenario in my 2011 projection for him.

The ZIPS updated projections expects that things will get better, but not that much better. The rest of the way projection has him hitting .260/.287/.357, which would still be below average offensive projection from a shortstop and his defense doesn't help his value at all.

The player that is in everyone's dreams to replace Tejada is the Mets Jose Reyes. Reyes is having a very nice season and appears to be back to the level of production that made him one of the best young players in the league before the injury bug bit him. The Mets are not expected to be contending and should be sellers of some of their veterans as they attempt to rebuild. Reyes should be available to teams that are willing to pay the price.

The price, which is expected to be fairly high, is the only thing holding the Giants back from going hard after him. The starting point for any trade talks is a top prospect and maybe some lesser guys as well. For the Giants, that means Brandon Belt or Zach Wheeler would have to be included. For the following analysis, I will use Wheeler because I imagine that Belt is pretty much untouchable at the moment.

Cost Benefit Analysis

To break this down first we need to figure out how much Wheeler is worth. This will be a very rough, back of the envelope calculation, but it should work for this purpose.

First, lets assume that there is a 75% chance he makes the majors. Top 10 picks make the majors about 73% of the time and Wheeler has shown he has potential in the low minors, so I think this is pretty fair. Next, lets make some assumptions on his value if he gets to the majors.

His talent ceiling is a number one or two starter, which would be about five WAR a season. Lets say that has a 20% chance of becoming true if he makes the majors. Lets say there is a 40% chance that instead of becoming an ace, he is a number two or three starter that is worth three WAR a season. Finally, lets say there is a 40% chance he becomes a number four or five starter or maybe switches to the bullpen and is worth one WAR a season.

If we take all of these assumptions and say three years of accumulating WAR in the majors, that gives us an expected total WAR of 5.85 over three years. If we assume one WAR is worth $5.5 million and that we must discount that value because it takes him a couple years to make the big leagues, that gives him a present value to the Giants of around $25 million.

Now that we have an estimate of what Wheeler is worth, we should figure out what Reyes is worth. So far this season, he has produced 2.4 fWAR over 47 games for the Mets. If we do a straight extrapolation of these numbers over 155 games, that would give him a 7.9 WAR season and about 5.5 WAR the rest of the way. This is probably a high estimate but lets go with it.

Reyes' contract pays him $11 million this season and as of today, that leaves about $7.8 million remaining to be paid. If he does produce 5.5 WAR and it is valued at $5.5 million per year, that gives him a value of $30.25 for the rest of the season and a surplus value of $22.45 million.

As of right now, Wheeler is more valuable to the Giants than Reyes, but adding Reyes also has the value of increasing the Giants chances of winning and making the playoffs. Making the playoffs is a big payday; lets say that brings in an extra $30 million to the team. Right now, Baseball Prospectus gives the Giants a 87.5% chance of making the playoffs. Lets assume that with Reyes, they become a virtual lock at 95%.

The expected playoff revenue increases with Reyes from $26.25 million to $28.5 million, so if we add $2.25 million to Reyes, his value to the Giants is now $24.7 million or virtually the same as what Wheeler is worth to the Giants.

Conclusion

As of this moment with the above assumptions, the Giants going after Reyes is about an even trade value wise. I see a number of assumptions that could easily change that complicate this deal.

First is that Reyes doesn't keep up his current rate of production. Right now, he is on pace for a career year and I would say there is a good possibility he slows down some along the course of the season. That would make him less valuable to the Giants.

There is also the chance that Reyes could become a Type A free agent, which means if the Giants fail to sign him to a extension, it could net a couple of draft picks. The extra draft picks would be nice to help restock the farm system and could help offset some of the loss of Wheeler.

Another possibility is the Giants have a different expectation of the future talent of Wheeler than I do. If they expect more, that obviously makes him more valuable to the team. The other thing that isn't taken into account is Wheeler is the only high caliber pitching prospect in the system and with the current pitchers running out of team control, that could making having a cost controlled player even more valuable.

With all of this taken into account, I would have to say that it would only make sense for the Giants to make this trade if they can do it soon because waiting until the end of July, the numbers don't add up. Even if the Mets were willing to do the deal now, it just seems like the Giants would be giving up quite a bit and don't have a lot of depth at pitching in the minor leagues to fall back on.

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Checking in on Brandon Belt

It's been a little over a month since Brandon Belt was sent to Fresno to work on his confidence, so I thought that a check-in on the kid was in order.

By all accounts, Belt has regained that missing confidence and re-proven that he can absolutely destroy minor league pitching. In 29 games, Belt has shown that there really isn't much more for him to prove in the minor leagues and it's just a matter of time until he gets the call to the big leagues.

All he has done is post a .351/.484/.553 line with 26 walks against 27 strikeouts. That is good enough for an OPS of 1.037 which believe it or not actually brings down his career minor league numbers a bit.

His stat line is impressive and even with the inflated offensive numbers of the Pacific Coast League, this translates into a major league equivalency of .289/.408/.440. That MLE would breakdown to a .352 wOBA which would make him one of the most productive players on the offensive starved Giants right now.

If you add his MLE to his previous numbers at the Major League level, that would boost his production from a .278 wOBA that earned him a ticket back to Fresno to a .325 wOBA that would be right around league average.

I have to believe there isn't too much more that he can learn against AAA pitching and he will need to make his adjustments at the big league level. The question isn't if he will be brought up this season but rather who he will replace when he does.

Stay tuned for that one.

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Aaron Rowand Career Profile

Aaron Rowand is featured today for John Sickels' continuing series Career Profile.

Worth a full read, but here is a quick excerpt from his first two years in the minors:

Rowand spent all of 1999 with Winston-Salem in the Carolina League, hitting .279/.336/.504 with 24 homers, 15 steals, 33 walks, and 94 strikeouts in 512 at-bats. His production was safely above average in most respects, though the BB/K ratio reflected concerns about his eye. I gave him another Grade B in the 2000 book, writing that his performance in Double-A would tell us "if he will develop into a slugging star or merely a good hitter."

Moved up to Birmingham for 2000, Rowand hit .258/.321/.438 with 20 homers, 22 steals, 38 walks, and 117 strikeouts in 532 at-bats. He still showed power and a good glove, but the plate discipline issue was getting worse, and his overall production was only slightly better than league context. The MLE on his OBP was about .290. I gave him a Grade C+ in the '01 book, noting that I hadn't given up on the idea that he could improve.

Sickles had concerns about his eye and that has definitely been the case in his career walk rate of 5.6% and a strikeout rate of 20.8%. He has had good years, but not worth what the Giants shelled out to get him after his career year.

Anyway, read the whole thing.

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