Thursday, March 17, 2011

Small Sample Size Fun: Is it Opening Day Yet Edition


With Spring Training lasting forever (there are two more full weeks of this stuff!), it's time to break out the first edition of Small Sample Size Fun™ of the year.

Two player's spring numbers:

Player A: .318 average 1.000 OPS, 2 home runs, 2 doubles.

Player B: .302 average .920 OPS, 2 home runs, 5 doubles.

One of these players is a top prospect that many want on the opening day roster. The other is a AAAA All-Star who might be a fringe starter.

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This one should hopefully temper people jumping to conclusions from a small sample against not always top notch opposing talent. Player A is my man crush, John Bowker, and Player B is Brandon Belt.

Take spring results with a grain of salt. They're fun, but they don't have a ton of predictive value. The Giants are tearing it up, which is great, but when March 31st rolls around, everyone will be back to 0-0 and then things really matter. Gone will be the starters running wind sprints on the warning track and done playing after five or six innings of play.

Is it Opening Day Yet?

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