Mark DeRosa shows signs he is fully healthy

The early story of the spring, at least for me, is that Mark DeRosa is hitting and hitting with authority.

Last season, DeRosa was a bust. His surgically repaired wrist never recovered and it sapped his power so that he was just a shell of his former self. I was concerned that the problem may not have been resolved and that DeRosa would never amount to anything.

After eight spring at bats (please take with a heavy grain of salt), DeRosa looks like a different hitter. Last season, DeRosa couldn't pull the ball at all. That trend seems to be reversing, with DeRosa hitting the ball with authority to his pull side.

If things continue this way, the Giants could be in good shape with DeRosa playing the super utility role that keeps everyone fresh. You know, that role that he was supposed to play when they signed him last year.

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Jonathan Sanchez 2011 Projection

Next in line for the Giants 2011 projections is the newly minted #2 starter, Jonathan Sanchez.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K
2011 Projection	3.39	12	10	184	149	20	91	185
Best Case	2.72	14	8	221	179	24	95	235
Worst Case	4.07	9	12	148	119	16	110	125

Sanchez is a frustrating guy to project. At times he is absolutely unhittable and looks like the second coming of Randy Johnson. At other times, he can't find the strike zone and you wonder if he is worth the headache.

If you've followed the Giants, this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, as this is the main complaint lodged against him. Last season, I wrote a little bit about his up's and down's and I imagine that this season will be filled with them as well.

If he can get a little more control and not lose the mental focus, he could have ace type stuff. Lefties with strikeout stuff don't come around that often. Since 2000, only 13 left-handed pitchers have thrown 150+ while striking out at least a batter an inning. One of them is Sanchez, who has accomplished this the last 2 seasons.

If he puts things together for the whole season, the ceiling is a Cy Young. He has the talent that's never been in question. More realistically, he is a solid above average pitcher who will be very frustrating to watch at times. That is the pitcher that I expect in 2011, but in the back of my mind, I know that there is the risk of him completely falling apart and going toward that worst case.

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The Giants Win @ Twitter

The Giants do really well at engaging with their fans on Twitter with one of the strongest presences in the social media square of any team.



Bryan Srabian, the Director of Social Media for the Giants, has done a great job of engaging the fan base and giving something extra and special for the fans who follow the team.

I had the pleasure of meeting him and he is a really nice guy who looks out for the fans. If you are on Twitter, you should follow the Giants official account. If not, you should really consider joining because following along with other fans while the game is on adds a whole new dimension to watching the game.

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Sports Illustrated has some nice things to say about Brandon Belt

In the latest issue of Sports Illustrated, which has the Spring Training previews for each teamm they also have a list of rookies to watch in 2011 and the Giants own Brandon Belt gets a nice shout out.

The Giants may have another Buster Posey, last year's NL Rookie of the Year. Belt, a fifth-round draft pick in 2009, is a 6'5", 210-pound, sweet-swinging lefty whom scouts liken to Will Clark. He was drafted in the 11th round by the Braves four years ago as a pitcher (he opted to go to Texas), but he has bloomed at the plate after revamping his stance and swing with the Giants. A slick fielder, he led the minor leagues in OPS (1.075) in 2010, and if he doesn't begin this year launching balls into McCovey Cove, he should force an early-season promotion and make an instant impact the way Posey did after his May call-up last year.

I hope that the guys at SI are right and that he does have an immediate impact on the scale of Posey. His numbers last year were simply off the charts and I think Giants fans would simply be spoiled with the rich talent that has come up through the minors the last few years after so many years of neglect and busted prospects.

While you are here, check out some of the other stuff that I have written about Mr. Top Prospect Brandon Belt; the scouting report and why he may stay in AAA for financial reasons.

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Bowkermania! Update: Looking at the Projections

It has been a while since we had our last Bowkermania! update. Ladies and gentlemen, lets take a look at the projections for the sites favorite Giants prospect castoff.

Most of the projection systems are pretty high on John Bowker being able to play at a major league average or better level.

Bill James is very bullish (but he is bullish on everyone it seems), giving him a triple slash of .276/.338/.469. With these numbers, he would be an above average outfielder.

PETCOA shares the optimism, projecting a .268/.342/.457 line, which would be fairly comparable to a league average right fielder.

Zips isn't quite as high as the other two, coming in with a .264/.329/.430 line, which would still be good enough for 102 OPS+, which is right around league average.

Marcel, which doesn't take into account his minor league Babe Ruth status, is the outlier of the group, projecting a .242/.300/.392 line and another season toiling in the minors, with a cup of coffee in September when the Pirates are 25 games back.

The projections are all pretty good, but the time to prove that he isn't just a AAA lifer is running out for Bowker, who is competing for the last outfield spot on the Pirates. Maybe another spring like last year can get him another chance to prove himself.

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Small Sample Size Fun: Spring Training Warning Edition

The Giants Spring Training slate kicks off today against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Scottsdale Stadium. It's a beautiful thing and it marks the beginning of the 2011 season, but as fans, we must resist the temptation to put too much weight on these games.

The exhibition schedule is 36 games long, with a bunch of players sharing time, working on new things, and getting back into the swing of the baseball grind. It's not the time to make drastic decisions based on little information just because there are some games going on.

What a player does in 30 something games and maybe a hundred at-bats doesn't tell you a whole lot. A player could ride a lucky streak and look like an All-Star only to fall flat on their face once the real season starts and the games actually count.

You could point to Spring Training all-star last year with John Bowker (I still have a man crush on him and that worries some people), who led the Giants in hitting and looked like he was the second coming of Barry Bonds. You could look at the struggles of Madison Bumgarner last season in the Spring that caused so many people to overreact and proclaim him done, only to see him fix his mechanical flaw and come back even stronger.

If Brandon Belt goes 0-3 with 3 strikeouts, don't proclaim him a bust. If Aaron Rowand hits .400 with 6 homers, don't point to all that cycling he did in the offseason as the reason he is no longer broken (actually, if he does do that, try to sell that story to another GM).

Spring Training is a time for hope and optimism, but what we shouldn't do is look at a breakout in the Spring or a bad showing as the last word on a player. The short window of exhibition games is, at best, a supplement to analyzing what a player has done up to this point in their career and not a replacement.

Lets enjoy the Spring and the return of baseball but always remember to take the results with a grain of salt.

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Is the Phillies Pitching Really That Much Better?

Every time I turn to watch or read something about baseball, the new look Phillies pitching staff is all over the screen. I think to myself, hmm, did the Giants not beat the same Phillies staff a year ago? (Minus Cliff Lee, who they also beat twice in the world series).

There is no doubt that they're a very good staff and if they were all wearing the Orange and Black, I would be a very happy guy. But, really, are they any better then the Giants pitchers? If you look at both rotations one through five, I think that you have to say they're pretty even.

In no particular order:

1. Roy Halladay vs Tim Lincecum:

In the playoffs last season, they split the series, but they both pitched very well. Both of these pitchers are elite guys and they have won the last three N.L. Cy Young awards.

2. Cliff Lee vs Matt Cain:

Both of theses guys are very good as well. Matt Cain, the younger of the two, has emerged from the shadow of his low run support days and is among the better pitchers in the game (even if he causes debate about luck vs skill on HR prevention). Cliff Lee is a very solid pitcher during the regular season and seems to find another level in the postseason and is the darling of the sabermetric crowd.

3. Roy Oswalt vs Madison Bumgarner:

Mad Bum really came out of his shell and pitched like a seasoned veteran in Game 4 of the Fall Classic and I cannot wait to see the rest of his days with the Giants. On the other side, Roy Oswalt is no pushover, a veteran who can still deal with the best in the majors.

4. Cole Hamels vs Johnathan Sanchez:

These two lefties have similar type styles; here is some junk, try and hit it. Hamels is a bit more consistent, but both of them, on any other team, could be a two or a very solid three.

5. Joe Blanton vs Barry Zito:

Both of these guys pitched in Oakland and now pitch in the National League. I have not given up on Barry Zito and Joe Blanton might be moving from Philly to another team soon. Both of these guys are very solid 5th starters.

Scott wrote earlier looking at the projected similarities in the two teams and also about the idea that the Phillies, as a team, are head and shoulders better than the Giants. I am a little more (or little less) optimistic than him on this case.

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NL West Breakdown

The latest Giants podcast from the Crazy Crabbers, we are joined by @EG110110 and breakdown the division rivals for the upcoming 2011 season.

Listen to internet radio with Crazy Crabbers on Blog Talk Radio

The quick breakdown; the Diamondbacks bullpen is not good, but they have a bunch of young talent on offense, which is led by Justin Upton.

The Rockies are a team to worry about, but there are questions about their supporting cast behind Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Dodgers are a mess and all of us don't have a lot sympathy for them. They have some solid talent in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, but they have some glaring holes (just look at left field) and a bunch of questions that makes them hard to project.

Finally, the Padres, who got a little bit of the short end of the stick on time, but they are rebuilding and will score 300-400 runs all season. Suck on that, Mat Latos.

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Matt Cain 2011 Projection

It is pretty easy to love Matt Cain as a Giants fan. He is the longest tenured player on the team, he is a very humble guy, and, above all else, he is an awesome player.

He may be overshadowed by Tim Lincecum in the national media, but Cain is still a hero to Giants fans everywhere. Cain has been the rock that anchors the Giants pitching staff. He's nearly a lock to give the team 200 or more quality innings and give the Giants a chance to win and I don't expect that to change this season.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K
2011 Projection	3.27	14	9	217	183	21	68	178
Best Case	2.61	16	8	240	220	25	81	220
Worst Case	3.92	11	11	180	146	16	54	130

I will keep this short and sweet. I expect good things from Matt Cain this season.

He is a model of consistency in giving quality innings, with the level of quality rising the last few years, as he has honed his craft. He is a savvy veteran but still one of the youngest pitchers in the starting rotation. I see few reasons why he should regress away from his career norms. It's entirely possible that he could continue his march toward being one of the best pitchers in the National League.

The best case would put him in the conversation for Cy Young consideration and the regular projection gets him in the discussion as an All-Star (with the added benefit of Bruce Bochy picking the reserves this season).

The worst case here would be a disappointment, but would still be superior to more then 60% of pitchers in the majors. I don't imagine this happening without some truly awful luck or an injury.

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Tim Lincecum 2011 Projection

After a much needed vacation and some rest and relaxation, it's time to get back on schedule with the Giants 2011 projections. Up next is the Giants Ace, Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum had a bit of a disappointing season last year after posting back-to-back Cy Young seasons and getting everybody worried with a diminished fastball and a stretch where he looked mortal. He was able to bounce back from that and lead the historic pitching staff to the promise land.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K
2011 Projection	3.05	16	8	208	174	15	71	235
Best Case	2.44	19	6	250	209	18	86	290
Worst Case	3.66	13	9	167	140	12	57	175

I am optimistic that Lincecum will go back to one of the top handful of pitchers in baseball and it's possible that he could regain the title of the best in the game, but there are still nagging worries to address.

Last year, he had the lowest K/9 since his rookie year and some might see a downward trend there. Over the last 3 years, his K/9 rate has declined from 10.51 in 2008 to 10.42 in 2009 and 9.79 in 2010. This could be a concern, but at 9.79, he's still an elite strikeout pitcher and, with the amount of innings he pitched, it was good enough to lead the league in strikeouts. In addition, if you include the playoffs into his pitching line, it increases to 9.96, which is still a drop but much more in line with the rest of his career.

The loss of velocity on the fastball is still a concern, but much less than it was when it was an obsession in the middle of last season. In his last starts of the season, things started trending up again (which was the opposite of what had happened in his other big league seasons where he lost velocity as the season wore on). This calmed many fears. We should have a better idea of where things are once he gets back into the swing of things at the beginning of the season.

The other thing that makes me feel better is if you exclude his rough August and add in his playoff performance, you see a line that is much closer to what we have come to expect from Timmy. Yes, it's kind of cherry picking, but it shows that he wasn't bad last year by any stretch of the imagination. He would have gone 20-6 with a 2.79 ERA with 247 strikeouts in 222 innings and very well could have beaten Roy Halladay for Cy Young #3.

Tim Lincecum doesn't cause too much worry from me, as I expect him to continue to do what he does and, if everything falls into place, he could be in line for some more hardware. The worst case is he has a season like 2010 where he was good enough to lead the team to a World Series championship.

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The Worst 100 RBI seasons in Giants history

The RBI is a hallowed stat for traditional baseball fans. It is said that driving in runs is an important skill and that without proven run producers, a team will fall on its face offensively. The modern take is that an RBI is due more to lineup placement and the ability of the guys in front of the batter to get on base and not a good descriptive statistic for how good a player is.

To test this, Baseball Reference had a post on this subject back in August and it made me want to look at how the Giants fared in this category. They looked at players with 100 or more RBIs in a season and then sorted by lowest Wins Above Replacement and there were some real bad seasons in there.

For some of these guys, they were "producing runs" but costing their teams quite a bit and probably didn't deserve the playing time that they were given.

Rk	Player	WAR	RBI	Year	Age	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos
1	Dante Bichette	-2.8	133	1999	35	COL	151	593	104	177	38	2	34	54	84	6	.298	.354	.541	*7/D
2	Ruben Sierra	-2.4	101	1993	27	OAK	158	630	77	147	23	5	22	52	97	25	.233	.288	.390	*9D
3	Joe Carter	-1.4	115	1990	30	SDP	162	634	79	147	27	1	24	48	93	22	.232	.290	.391	*873
4	Tony Armas	-1.4	107	1983	29	BOS	145	574	77	125	23	2	36	29	131	0	.218	.254	.453	*8D
5	Joe Carter	-1.3	107	1996	36	TOR	157	625	84	158	35	7	30	44	106	7	.253	.306	.475	*73D
6	Eddie Robinson	-1.3	102	1953	32	PHA	156	615	64	152	28	4	22	63	56	1	.247	.322	.413	*3
7	Joe Carter	-1.2	102	1997	37	TOR	157	612	76	143	30	4	21	40	105	8	.234	.284	.399	D379
8	Joe Pepitone	-0.6	100	1964	23	NYY	160	613	71	154	12	3	28	24	63	2	.251	.281	.418	*38/9
9	George Bell	-0.5	112	1992	32	CHW	155	627	74	160	27	0	25	31	97	5	.255	.294	.418	*D7
10	Bill Buckner	-0.5	102	1986	36	BOS	153	629	73	168	39	2	18	40	25	6	.267	.311	.421	*3D
11	Jorge Cantu	-0.3	117	2005	23	TBD	150	598	73	171	40	1	28	19	83	1	.286	.311	.497	*45D
12	Ernie Banks	-0.3	106	1969	38	CHC	155	565	60	143	19	2	23	42	101	0	.253	.309	.416	*3
13	Del Ennis	-0.3	105	1957	32	STL	136	490	61	140	24	3	24	37	50	1	.286	.332	.494	*79
14	Ray Pepper	-0.3	101	1934	28	SLB	148	564	71	168	24	6	7	29	67	1	.298	.333	.399	*78/9
15	Rico Brogna	-0.2	102	1999	29	PHI	157	619	90	172	29	4	24	54	132	8	.278	.336	.454	*3
16	Danny Tartabull	-0.2	101	1996	33	CHW	132	472	58	120	23	3	27	64	128	1	.254	.340	.487	*9/D
17	Tony Perez	-0.1	105	1980	38	BOS	151	585	73	161	31	3	25	41	93	1	.275	.320	.467	*3D

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/17/2011.

Some of these guys were just plain bad, so how have the Giants done? Much better. Here is the San Francisco Giants top 10 worst seasons with 100+ RBIs:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	RBI	Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos
1	Orlando Cepeda	3.1	114	1962	24	162	676	625	105	191	26	1	35	37	97	10	.306	.347	.518	*3/79
2	Orlando Cepeda	3.4	105	1959	21	151	647	605	92	192	35	4	27	33	100	23	.317	.355	.522	*37/5
3	J.T. Snow	3.5	104	1997	29	157	637	531	81	149	36	1	28	96	124	6	.281	.387	.510	*3
4	Jeff Kent	3.7	101	1999	31	138	585	511	86	148	40	2	23	61	112	13	.290	.366	.511	*4/3
5	Jack Clark	3.8	103	1982	26	157	659	563	90	154	30	3	27	90	91	6	.274	.372	.481	*9
6	Matt Williams	4.4	122	1990	24	159	664	617	87	171	27	2	33	33	138	7	.277	.319	.488	*5
7	Dick Dietz	4.5	107	1970	28	148	612	493	82	148	36	2	22	109	106	0	.300	.426	.515	*2
8	Jeff Kent	4.6	121	1997	29	155	651	580	90	145	38	2	29	48	133	11	.250	.316	.472	*43
9	Will Clark	4.9	116	1991	27	148	622	565	84	170	32	7	29	51	91	4	.301	.359	.536	*3
10	Jeff Kent	5.0	128	1998	30	137	594	526	94	156	37	3	31	48	110	9	.297	.359	.555	*4/3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 2/17/2011.

Orlando Cepeda's worst season was only the 375th worst since 1901. None of these players seem to have not earned their playing time and, in fact, these were all well above average seasons.

I am not sure if that means the Giants have been better than other teams through the years at not lusting after RBI numbers or just got lucky that the players they trusted as "run producers" didn't have good RBI numbers and bad numbers every where else.

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