Checking Out the Giants 2011 Zips Projections

The 2011 Zips projections are out for the Giants this morning and the system is pretty high on the Giants.

Taking a quick look the Giants pitching is still pretty awesome but after Barry Zito things really drop off with no 6th starter should an injury take down a guy. The bullpen is fully stocked with 13guys of around league average or better arms (ERA + greater than 95) which is a real strength of the team. This is also the most likely scenario where the "6th" starter comes from should no other cheap alternative arise.

The offense looks like it should have a better year with 6 guys (5 not counting Brandon Belt) as above average and the rest looking to be around average. The low hitter on the list is Freddy Sanchez with an OPS+ of just 89.

I am a little surprised at the really low BA for Pat Burrell, I am expecting something more along the lines of .250 but even at .239 the walks and power numbers make him valuable. I think that Andres Torres gets a little short changed as well, his last 2 seasons with he Giants he has been .269/ .343/ .492 so I think more realistically some more in between is a better guess with these numbers as the floor.

For the pitchers I think the K rate for Madison Bumgarner is a little low at 5.8/9 I think that something near 7 to 7.5 per nine is closer with a ceiling at about 8. Everything else pitcher wise looks pretty good for me.

Here are the projections:


Batting Projections

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+
Buster Posey	.297	.366	.479	582	92	173	35	4	21	92	60	94	3	125
Pablo Sandoval	.295	.346	.474	586	82	173	40	4	19	86	46	81	4	118
Aubrey Huff	.273	.349	.465	523	79	143	34	3	20	83	59	85	4	117
Brandon Belt	.266	.357	.440	516	79	137	32	8	14	80	73	106	18	113
Cody Ross	.269	.318	.450	498	65	134	30	3	18	68	31	103	6	104
Pat Burrell	.239	.342	.438	402	50	96	21	1	19	63	64	110	0	108
Andres Torres	.252	.319	.428	404	62	102	25	8	10	41	38	103	17	99
Nate Schierholtz	.273	.319	.431	355	53	97	22	5	8	40	21	59	7	99
Miguel Tejada	.287	.319	.411	581	79	167	34	1	12	72	20	56	3	95
Mark DeRosa	.252	.324	.401	314	44	79	15	1	10	47	30	66	2	94
Thomas Neal	.259	.325	.397	595	81	154	36	2	14	78	48	129	6	93
Francisco Peguero	.292	.315	.400	527	68	154	18	12	5	64	14	98	29	91
Freddy Sanchez	.278	.320	.386	485	63	135	27	2	7	48	28	67	2	89
Travis Ishikawa	.249	.312	.407	329	45	82	18	2	10	49	28	84	3	92
Ryan Rohlinger	.255	.317	.386	451	61	115	28	2	9	59	34	93	4	88
Aaron Rowand	.252	.312	.391	437	54	110	23	1	12	50	27	97	4	88
Mike Fontenot	.257	.319	.386	303	35	78	18	3	5	35	26	58	2	89
Brock Bond	.267	.350	.341	472	77	126	22	5	1	42	53	86	10	87
Conor Gillaspie	.265	.314	.379	585	69	155	30	8	7	75	42	88	0	86
Brett Pill	.256	.297	.380	574	70	147	35	0	12	82	29	94	5	80
Tyler Graham	.258	.304	.323	365	56	94	14	2	2	32	20	77	30	69
Johnny Monell	.228	.288	.366	382	43	87	20	3	9	46	31	101	5	75
Emmanuel Burriss	.264	.314	.314	363	49	96	11	2	1	28	22	46	19	70
Charlie Culberson	.243	.289	.345	617	82	150	26	5	9	57	33	139	18	70
Joe Borchard	.221	.283	.368	321	40	71	17	3	8	35	25	93	2	73
Eli Whiteside	.230	.277	.354	178	21	41	8	1	4	19	9	47	1	68
Darren Ford	.224	.288	.325	526	76	118	19	8	6	41	44	149	36	65
Brandon Crawford	.226	.288	.341	452	56	102	20	4	8	31	35	139	6	68
Juan Perez	.236	.270	.358	601	71	142	32	7	9	55	26	154	14	67
Ehire Adrianza	.232	.295	.311	556	75	129	23	6	3	47	46	122	22	63

 

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player	Age	ERA	W	L	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA+
Tim Lincecum	27	2.78	17	6	32	32	213.3	172	66	14	71	246	150
Matt Cain	26	3.25	15	8	33	33	219	189	79	20	70	186	129
Jonathan Sanchez	28	3.66	12	8	32	30	172.3	141	70	18	87	183	114
Madison Bumgarner	21	3.93	10	8	30	29	165	167	72	16	51	107	106
Barry Zito	33	4.19	11	11	30	30	176	168	82	18	78	133	100
Todd Wellemeyer	32	4.93	6	8	22	19	107.7	111	59	16	50	75	85
Henry Sosa	25	5.38	4	6	24	13	82	89	49	12	44	50	78
Clayton Tanner	23	5.5	6	11	26	25	131	148	80	17	70	66	76
Shane Loux	31	5.5	6	9	24	17	107.3	130	62	13	32	45	76
Matt Kinney	34	5.58	4	7	16	15	80.7	94	50	15	26	54	75
Michael Main	22	6.52	3	7	17	16	78.7	94	57	15	46	42	64

 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player	Age	ERA	W	L	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA+
Sergio Romo	28	2.82	5	2	59	0	54.3	44	17	5	16	60	148
Brian Wilson	29	2.86	5	2	66	0	69.3	56	22	5	26	83	146
Jeremy Affeldt	31	3.54	3	2	64	0	61	55	24	5	26	57	118
Ramon Ramirez	29	3.55	4	2	68	0	66	57	26	6	29	56	118
Santiago Casilla	30	3.76	3	2	50	0	52.7	49	22	5	24	47	111
Javier Lopez	33	3.88	2	2	63	0	51	50	22	4	21	32	108
Jose Casilla	22	4.04	2	2	40	0	42.3	42	19	3	20	26	103
Dan Runzler	26	4.1	2	2	50	0	48.3	41	22	4	34	49	102
Guillermo Mota	37	4.14	3	3	51	0	50	47	23	5	21	36	101
Osiris Matos	26	4.21	3	3	46	0	57.7	57	27	5	25	43	99
Chris Ray	29	4.33	2	2	47	0	43.7	43	21	4	20	33	97
Geno Espineli	27	4.33	4	4	53	0	62.3	69	30	5	19	33	96
Alex Hinshaw	28	4.33	2	2	54	0	54	47	26	5	40	57	96
Waldis Joaquin	24	4.56	3	3	39	3	53.3	52	27	5	34	42	92
Tony Pena Jr.	30	4.78	1	2	27	0	37.7	40	20	4	18	23	87
Brandon Medders	31	4.82	2	2	44	0	52.3	54	28	7	26	39	87
Steve Edlefsen	26	4.93	4	6	48	0	65.7	65	36	7	46	48	85
Matt Yourkin	29	5.16	4	7	39	11	90.7	103	52	11	40	61	81
Rafael Cova	29	5.19	1	2	26	0	26	23	15	3	23	25	80
Craig Whitaker	26	6.11	1	2	44	1	56	57	38	7	59	40	68

Updated: 1/5/2011 Added some clarification about the "league average" remark for pitchers and ERA+, thanks splashing pumpkins for helping out with it not being clear.