2009 Jeremy Affeldt is Just a Memory Now

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Jeremy Affeldt's impressive 2009 seems like a lifetime ago and with each progressive outing, it feels like getting back to that level of pitching is less and less likely.

Even with Affeldt's struggles, he is still in the good graces of Bruce Bochy. He keeps getting the call to pitch in important situations and has been one of the go-to options in the sixth and seventh innings. So, when can we expect Affeldt to bounce of his funk?

To be perfectly frank, I don't think what we are seeing now is the funk. What was out of the ordinary was his 2009 season where he posted a 1.73 ERA, while his other numbers all remained around his career norms. To help illustrate just how much of a blip 2009 was, here is a nifty chart that plots his ERA along with some advanced stats that look to strip out things beyond a pitchers control.

The stats that focus on what pitchers can control all foreshadowed the coming struggles and didn't believe that he was an elite relief pitcher. His run prevention were helped by a strand rate of 86.4% (career 70.7%) and excellent outcomes on balls hit into play not falling for hits (25% vs 30% career).

Another interesting thing to look at is his control and strikeout stuff haven't really changed since his big season either and his numbers are down from his 2008 season prior to joining the Giants.

What this means is the 2009 Jeremy Affeldt was awesome at preventing runs, but the numbers suggest he is unlikely to repeat that level of performance. The Giants coaches and us fans need to expect that as well and not be expecting miracles from the lefty.

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Is a Six Man Pitching Rotation the Answer when Zito Returns?

Barry Zito is still out with an injured foot, but should be back before too long and when he does come back to the team, that leaves that Giants with a tough decision to make. What should they do with Ryan Vogelsong?

Vogelsong has pitched very well for the Giants this year in Zito's absence. In his four starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA, a K/9 of 8.6 and a BB/9 of 3.3. It doesn't look like he is doing it with smoke and mirrors either. His tRA as a starter is 3.71, his FIP is 3.00, his xFIP is 3.33 and his SIERA his 3.55. Not too shabby.

So what are the Giants to do when they have a two guys who are serviceable fifth starters?

Well, Obsessive Giants Compulsive has an interesting idea. Why not let them both be in the rotation?

My proposed solution is one that I had advocated in the past for the Giants: going with a six man rotation.

There are numerous benefits to the six-man rotation. First of all, it allows the Giants to keep Vogelsong in the rotation when Zito returns. However, that would mean the Giants would have to DFA Moto to make space for Zito and Vogelsong. Not that I view that as a huge loss, but he's been good so far this season.

Second, it allows the Giants to keep their pitchers on a similar schedule as the early season when starters got six days of rest when there was five starters and a day off. Teams seem to like that regularity early on, and

Third, it would reduce the pitching load on our playoff starters' arms, a concern since the off-season began. For example, if Zito is back in around a month, say, Monday June 20, after 72 games played, that leaves 90 games left. For a 5-man rotation, that is 18 starts each, but for a 6-man rotation, that reduces the load to 15 starts each. At that point, the playoff starters would have 15 starts roughly. Going to a 6-man rotation would reduce their currently expected 33 starts and 200-210 IP to 30 starts and 180-190 IP. And there are 8 days off in that stretch, so if you skip Vogelsong's turn 5 times, that adds one start to each, making it 31 starts and 185-195 IP.

Fourth, significant to me is the number of pitches a starter throws in a season. The PAP theorists rightly pointed out a problem with previous usage of starters but with most managers hewing to the 100 pitch limit, that battle is basically won. Something I've been writing about for a number of years is the overall usage of a starter's arm in terms of pitches thrown in a season.

Admittedly, I eyeballed the stats, but a nice annual, The Graphical Pitcher, provided the number of pitches thrown data on a graph vs. their proprietary measure of a pitcher's contribution, and, except for Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson, I noticed that within 0-2 years of a pitcher reaching roughly 3,500 pitches in a season, that pitcher's value metric fell drastically for whatever reason, whether injury or lack of performance. Of course, that is not scientific, but I note this because Lincecum and Cain have been above that in recent years and went way over with the playoffs last season.

Fifth, as long as Vogelsong pitches reasonably well, it does not matter much that the great starters gave up starts, as long as Vogelsong pitches well enough for the lineup to win with his performance. He has been great so far, but one must remember that he couldn't even survive pitching in AAA last season for two teams looking for simply adequate starting pitching. The wheel could fall off for him and some time soon.

However, I don't think so. He has been pitching great so far, striking out a lot while not walking many. That is not an easy thing to do. In addition, in four starts, he has three DOM starts and one DIS start (75%/25%), which is excellent.

I like the idea of trying to save the arms from over work and keep them fresh for later in the season. However, my main concern is about lowering the Giants chances of making the dance. If we get less of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner, the Giants are not as good of a team and with the offense struggling, the margin for error is very slim.

If the offense shows signs of life, I am all for this, but if the team continues to struggle to score runs, that could mean not making the playoffs, which is more important. It could be worth a shot, but with a quick hook if things don't turn out right.

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Bochy's Lack of Faith in Romo

Sergio Romo got to face one batter last night. He gave up a soft single to Matt Kemp and was quickly replaced by Brain Wilson.

The reasoning behind this is Bruce Bochy wanted to get Wilson in the game. Andrew Baggerly reported in his post game notes:

Bochy acknowledged that Wilson might have been rusty. But he hadn’t used his closer on the entire road trip, and he wanted to get him in this game. He didn’t want the Dodgers to tie it in the eighth, potentially, and then end up bypassing his closer entirely. So Bochy tabbed Wilson for his first four-out save chance of the season

With two outs in the ninth and a runner on, why did he even let Romo face a batter? Why not just bring in Wilson for the four out save right away?

From my armchair many miles removed from the situation, it seems that Bochy is lacking faith in his right hander and is grasping for explanations for his quick hook. In the end, I am glad that it worked out, but geez, that game was way too close for comfort.

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Third Base Options for the Giants

The rumor de jour is Aubrey Huff may be needing a new glove, as the Giants are looking to find a way to fix what has deteriorated quickly into an awful left side of the infield. As crazy as this sounds, it probably isn't that bad of an idea.

With Pablo Sandoval still three weeks or more away from coming back, the options of Mark DeRosa and Miguel Tejada are not getting it done. The latest talk is that Aubrey Huff can slide over to the other side of the diamond and plug the hole there. The other rumblings is that Conor Gillaspie, who is currently with AAA Fresno, may get the call to join the big league team.

The Huff-to-third move was a little interesting to me the first time I heard it, but then I looked a little deeper and thought that it might work out. My first thought is about how his defensive play would hold up at third (in case you were wondering, he throws right handed so this isn't that crazy) and I think you could expect it to be somewhere in between his defense in the outfield and first base.

He hasn't played there since 2008, but he has shown that he can handle the position at a slightly below average level in his time spent there. In 2,901 innings, he has a UZR/150 of -5.3, which is much better than his number in right field, where he has -17 UZR/150 in 2,238 innings and just slightly worse than his career at first base, where he has a -2.2 UZR/150 in 3,654 innings.

If he isn't going to be completely embarrassing, why the delay in moving him there?

I would imagine that it's due to the lack of good options for first base in his absence. The Giants only have one backup infielder in Mike Fontenot, so that would mean putting DeRosa at first or trying to get one of the outfielders up to speed at first base in a hurry. This is where I get skeptical that this is a serious option, unless the move is coupled with Brandon Belt making his return.

Belt has shown that he can hit AAA pitching and has nothing left to prove in Fresno. He is hitting .387/.529/.600 right now and you have to believe that the level of pitching is not going to help in his development any further.

To me, the Huff-to-third move only makes sense if it also brings up Brandon Belt. Now, lets look at the other option, Conor Gillaspie. I don't extensively follow the minors, but luckily, contributor Kevin O'Brian, who runs Optioned to Fresno, does.

Here is what he has to say about him:

This year, Gillaspie earned a promotion to Fresno and he is producing good numbers going into today's game. He is continuing to improve his power (he has a .422 slugging and a .780 OPS), and his defensive abilities are still developing (career high 2.74 RF/G this year in the PCL). Also, his OBP and BB/K ratio have gotten back to his San Jose levels (.358 OBP; 0.78 BB/K ratio), so it seems like he's finally getting everything all together offensively now at Triple-A. The scouting reports have also been good on Gillaspie, as reports say he's been hitting a lot of line drives with the Grizzlies, which is a good sign.

The problem with Gillaspie may just be the fact that he plays at a position where more power is expected. Third basemen are expected to be major run producers and right now, Gillaspie hasn't necessarily showcased the power in the minors that makes scouts or analysts think he'd be worthy of being an everyday Major League third baseman. I would counter with the fact that his plate approach, good contact ability and ability to get on base make him a viable option to any MLB club, and he could be an everyday third baseman (or at worst, a utility infielder) on the right team. We have seen players like Daric Barton and Bill Mueller become very solid Big League contributors despite lacking power at positions where power is traditionally expected (i.e., third base and first base).

His MLE right now breaks out to be .250/.317/.357, which is better than anything Tejada or DeRosa have put up this year, so it really couldn't hurt to bring him up. However, this does mean losing Darren Ford and his pinch running, but he was overhyped anyway.

UPDATE: Andrew Baggerly is reporting that Gillaspie is out with an ankle injury and is not coming up.

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