Thursday, October 18, 2012

Detailed look at the Giants RISP troubles from last night


The Giants with runners in scoring position last night were abysmal. The Giants put a bunch of guys on base and then decided that it would be rude to their hosts to drive them in.

For those that want to take a stroll through the nightmare I am going to go through each at bats the Giants had taking a detailed look at each one.

Top of the 2nd:

Brandon Belt walks, Gregor Blanco grounds out to first moving Belt to second with two outs.

Situation: Brandon Crawford, runner on second, two outs:



Crawford get’s one pitch that is near the middle of the strike zone on a pretty nice slider from Lohse and swings through it. Everything else is on the corner’s or well outside the strike zone. Crawford has a nice at bat and draws a walk.

Verdict: Good at bat, decent result

Situation: Matt Cain, runners on first and second, two outs:



Cain gets a heavy does of hard two seamers on the outside corner. Lohse gets a generous called strike two and then finally gets Cain on a caught foul tip. Not a bad at bat considering that Cain is a pitcher who came up with two outs.

Verdict: Good at bat, bad result

Top of the 3rd:

Angel Pagan leads off with a single, Marco Scutaro doubles. Runners on second and third with the heart of the order coming up, a big inning looks possible.

Situation: Pablo Sandoval, runner on second and third, no outs:



With the infield back Sandoval at the very least gets the runner in from third with his grounder to short. The ball wasn’t hit particularly hard but it was a productive out that put the Giants on the board.

Verdict: Decent at bat, decent result

Situation: Buster Posey, runner on third, one out:

Posey is intentionally walked.

Situation: Hunter Pence, runner on first and third, one out:



Lohse gives Pence a steady diet of sliders, eventually getting him to pull a slider on the outside corner weakly to the short stop for a double play. This killed the rally and was something that  the Giants did far too much against Lohse. He was living on the outside corner and Giants hitters kept trying to pull it only to weakly ground out to the middle infielders.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Top of the 4th:

With one out Blanco walks, Crawford singles up the middle.

Situation: Cain, runners on first and third, one out:



This is a tough position for a manager; with the pitcher up what would you do in this position? Have him swing away and risk the possibility of a double play? Sacrifice bunt to have two runners in scoring position but two outs? Try for a suicide squeeze of some sort? Pinch hit for your ace in the 4th inning?

Bruce Bochy ultimately went with the sacrifice bunt that Cain was successful in getting down. I don’t know if it was the right call and it probably wasn’t the one that I would have made. The win probability says that this move hurt the Giants chances of winning but that doesn’t take into account that this was a pitcher hitting.

It’s hard to say what would have been best move but Bochy went with the “safe” and conventional route this time.

Verdict: Questionable decision

Situation: Pagan, runners on second and third, two outs:



After the bunt, the duty to score the runs fell onto Pagan. Pagan got a few hittable pitches that he fouled off and ultimately flied out to deep centerfield. If Pagan get’s a hit Bochy looks like a genius, if Pagan makes an out everyone second guesses his bunt decision. The horrible life of a MLB Manager.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 6th:

With two outs, Crawford and Cain both hit singles finally knocking out Lohse, in comes flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal.

Situation: Pagan, runners on first and second, two outs:



Rosenthal reaches back and unleashes fastballs at 98, 98, 99, 101 and 100 to Pagan who does well to work the count but ultimately grounds out to the short stop. Another threat for the Giants extinguished.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 7th:

With one out, Sandoval rips a ball off the left field wall that only a fortunate bounce right to Matt Holiday allows him to keep it to a single. Posey follows it up with a ground ball through the left side of the infield (if only Sandoval could have gotten to second on his liner!). Mike Matheny brings in Mitchell Boggs to face Pence.

Situation: Pence, runners on first and second, one out:



Boggs comes in and gives Pence a heavy does of sliders. Pence helps him out by swinging for the fences on each one and swings right through them. Both the second on the third pitches of this at bat were pretty hittable with out two much break and were middle in. Luckily for the Cardinals Pence is in a funk and couldn’t punish the mistakes.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Situation: Belt, runners on first and second, two outs:



Belt committed the cardinal sin that will probably send him to the bench for tonight’s game, he looked at strike three with a runner in scoring position.

In the end Belt was probably wrong. The pitch sure looks like it was a strike. It was a well thrown slider that started outside and caught the outside corner as it broke back to the plate. The one that really sucks however was strike one, that pitch was probably a good four to six inches off the plate but was called a strike. That put Belt in the whole where he was on the defensive and he never recovered.

Verdict: Bad at bat

After this last threat the Giants never threatened again. In came the Cardinals closer for a two inning save and the Giants went meekly into the night. If they want to have a chance to come back in this series their at bats with runners in scoring position will have to improve.

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Monday, October 15, 2012

Giants Exec Refutes Claim Giants Never Talked About Bringing Beltran Back


One of the things that really ticked me off last off-season with the Giants was that the Giants didn't bring back Carlos Beltran. After he was signed by the Cardinals at a bargain price it hurt even worse.

To top it all off, the story was that the Giants didn't even make an offer to their big mid season acquisition who they had traded their top pitching prospect to get.


Now, John Shea of the Chronicle has gotten word from Giants VP Bobby Evans that it isn't true.
For the first time publicly, a Giants official responded to Beltran's stance that the team did not contact him or show any interest. Assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when relayed Beltran's comment that he didn't hear from the Giants, told The Chronicle he had approximately 12 discussions with Beltran's agent, Dan Lozano, including one face to face at the winter meetings. Plus text messages. 
To fill their outfield spots, the Giants traded for Kansas City's Melky Cabrera and the Mets'Angel Pagan. 
"I don't know if Lozano never conveyed that we had a dozen or so conversations," Evans said. "It's a great mystery. I'm very pleased we were able to acquire Cabrera and Pagan for the same money (that Beltran makes in 2012), but to say we didn't have conversations (with Beltran's agent) is a falsehood. It's just not true. 
"All I can speculate is that Lozano didn't convey the conversations to the player."
No offer was made to Beltran, but Evans said, "We talked in dollars and years, but ultimately the timing was not right. They wanted to wait and feel out the market, and we needed to execute business."
 It doesn't take any of the sting out of losing out on bringing back Beltran, but at least the Giants tried compared to the previous narrative that they didn't seem to care either way.

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Sunday, October 14, 2012

Cardinals vs Giants NLCS Preview



The National League Championship series features a pair of teams that within the last few days were both on the brink of elimination and were fighting for their postseason lives. This round only ones teams magical season will continue.

The odds slightly favor the Giants (primarily because of home field advantage if this goes seven games) but I am expecting just about anything to happen.

Here is the statistical breakdown for each squad:

Offense

AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+
Giants0.2690.3270.3970.31599
Cardinals0.2710.3380.4210.329107

Pitching

ERA-FIP-xFIP-
Giants97101101
Cardinals979595


The Cardinals are a better team than the Giants, but it is fairly close. On offense the Cardinals were the best hitting team in the NL this season while the Giants were the fourth best. On the pitching side, the teams are even in ERA- while the Cardinals have the edge in the fielding independent statistics.

On paper this is a very close match up that leans toward the Cardinals, however this is a short series and sometimes a guy like Cody Ross hits like vintage Barry Bonds over a short stretch, you never know and that is why we all love this crazy game.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:
  • I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
  • The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
  • The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
  • Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Sunday, October 14, 5:00 PM: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Monday, October 15, 5:00 PM: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Wednesday, October 17, 1:00 PM: Kyle Loshe vs. Matt Cain

Thursday, October 18, 5:00 PM: Adam Wainright vs. Tim Lincecum*

Friday, October 19, 5:00 PM**: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Sunday, October 21, 1:30 PM**: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Monday, October 22, 5:00 PM**: Kyle Lohse vs. Matt Cain

*Not announced but it is what I am hoping for

**If necessary

Odds:
GiantsCardinals
Game 157%43%
Game 254%46%
Game 349%51%
Game 439%61%
Game 548%52%
Game 654%46%
Game 758%42%

In each game the home team is the favorite but outside of games one, four and seven all of the match ups are fairly close to toss up games where neither team has a large advantage.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

GiantsCardinals
Sweep6%6%
In 5 games12%13%
in 6 games17%15%
in 7 game18%13%
Total:53%47%

The Giants enjoy the slight advantage in the odds right now due to the benefit of home field advantage. The longer the series goes the more it swings in the Giants favor and on paper it looks like there is a decent chance of that happening. The probability of a sweep is slim with neither team having much of an edge in the first four games.

According to my projections, we should all prepare our selves for a long series. The odds of at least six games right now are sitting at 63% and this is probably a good thing that favors the Giants with the last two games at home.

The experts at ESPN are split as to who will win but it sure seems that the Cardinals bandwagon is a bit fuller at this moment. I actually don't mind that at all and I am a bit reassured by these numbers giving the slight edge to the Giants. This plus the underdog role seems to fit into the pattern of what happened in 2010 and we all remember what happened then.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Lincecum, Zito Among Least Valuable Pitchers


Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Glenn DuPaul took a look at the least valuable players this season based on what a player produced on the field compared to what the team payed him.

On this list are two of the Giants pitchers, Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum.

It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to people that have watched the Giants. Neither of these guys were all that good this season and each made over $20 million.

For National League pitchers that qualified for the ERA title, Lincecum posted the highest ERA, Zito had the 9th highest mark. In other words that was a bunch of runs surrendered for all those millions.

Luckily for the Giants having two of the highest paid number 4 and 5 starters in the league didn't kill the season as the team is getting ready to play in the NLCS. For another team that didn't quite have the financial flexibility of the Giants it could have taken down the whole season.

I am happy that this wasn't my money and I sure won't complain too much with the Giants in the playoffs.

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