Go Giants

What a great game. Really couldn't have asked for much more than this. 

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Cardinals vs Giants NLCS Preview

The National League Championship series features a pair of teams that within the last few days were both on the brink of elimination and were fighting for their postseason lives. This round only ones teams magical season will continue.

The odds slightly favor the Giants (primarily because of home field advantage if this goes seven games) but I am expecting just about anything to happen.

Here is the statistical breakdown for each squad:

Offense

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Giants	0.269	0.327	0.397	0.315	99
Cardinals	0.271	0.338	0.421	0.329	107

Pitching

	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
Giants	97	101	101
Cardinals	97	95	95

The Cardinals are a better team than the Giants, but it is fairly close. On offense the Cardinals were the best hitting team in the NL this season while the Giants were the fourth best. On the pitching side, the teams are even in ERA- while the Cardinals have the edge in the fielding independent statistics.

On paper this is a very close match up that leans toward the Cardinals, however this is a short series and sometimes a guy like Cody Ross hits like vintage Barry Bonds over a short stretch, you never know and that is why we all love this crazy game.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Sunday, October 14, 5:00 PM: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Monday, October 15, 5:00 PM: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Wednesday, October 17, 1:00 PM: Kyle Loshe vs. Matt Cain

Thursday, October 18, 5:00 PM: Adam Wainright vs. Tim Lincecum*

Friday, October 19, 5:00 PM**: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Sunday, October 21, 1:30 PM**: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Monday, October 22, 5:00 PM**: Kyle Lohse vs. Matt Cain

*Not announced but it is what I am hoping for

**If necessary

Odds:

	Giants	Cardinals
Game 1	57%	43%
Game 2	54%	46%
Game 3	49%	51%
Game 4	39%	61%
Game 5	48%	52%
Game 6	54%	46%
Game 7	58%	42%

In each game the home team is the favorite but outside of games one, four and seven all of the match ups are fairly close to toss up games where neither team has a large advantage.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Cardinals
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	12%	13%
in 6 games	17%	15%
in 7 game	18%	13%
Total:	53%	47%

The Giants enjoy the slight advantage in the odds right now due to the benefit of home field advantage. The longer the series goes the more it swings in the Giants favor and on paper it looks like there is a decent chance of that happening. The probability of a sweep is slim with neither team having much of an edge in the first four games.

According to my projections, we should all prepare our selves for a long series. The odds of at least six games right now are sitting at 63% and this is probably a good thing that favors the Giants with the last two games at home.

The experts at ESPN are split as to who will win but it sure seems that the Cardinals bandwagon is a bit fuller at this moment. I actually don't mind that at all and I am a bit reassured by these numbers giving the slight edge to the Giants. This plus the underdog role seems to fit into the pattern of what happened in 2010 and we all remember what happened then.

Giants Win, Complete Improbable Comeback

A thing of beauty

Two days ago the Giants had just a 15 percent chance of winning this series. This afternoon they became the first National League team to come back from down 0-2 in a five game series.

The big inning was the 5th where the Giants scored all 6 runs and then held on for dear life. All those times putting the tying run on base nearly gave me a heart attack and made it hard to type at times with my hands shaking uncontrollably.

It wasn't easy.

It wasn't pretty.

In the end it really doesn't matter because the Giants won.

Now us fans have a day or two to recover from the stress and nerves before the NLCS ratchets up the nerves to the next level.

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Giants odds at 28 percent: Updated NLDS Odds

After an improbable win where the Giants offense took a play right out of the 2010 Padres playbook the Giants season continues to today.

Since I last looked at the odds things have changed quite a bit, with Johnny Cueto out and Mike Leake brought into replace him. Today it is Leake vs. Barry Zito (another change) and if necessary it will be Mat Latos vs. Matt Cain tomorrow morning.

Here is everything updated with the changes since a ran the original projection and the updated odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	100%	0%
Game 2	100%	0%
Game 3	0%	100%
Game 4	49%	51%
Game 5	44%	56%

And the permutations for the last two games:

Games	Reds	Giants
3	0%	0%
4	49%	0%
5	23%	28%
Total	72%	28%

It's still a long shot for the Giants but crazier things have happened and amazingly the Giants are actually favored in the last two games (even though they would be better classified as toss ups).

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