Checking in on the Giants Prospects

With the first month of the minor league season in the books I think that now is a good time to take a look at how things are going down on the farm.

First up the Giants position prospects (all stats are through the April 28th):

Rank	Name	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Gary Brown	99	18	2	1	0	8	13	0.222	0.330	0.272
2	Joe Panik	92	19	6	0	0	11	7	0.235	0.326	0.309
3	Andrew Susac	70	14	3	0	1	7	24	0.230	0.329	0.328
4	Franscico Peguero	86	17	2	3	1	5	12	0.215	0.256	0.354
6	Tommy Joesph	71	15	4	0	1	3	12	0.227	0.268	0.333
8	Hector Sanchez	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	Jarrett Parker	79	13	3	2	4	12	33	0.203	0.342	0.500
11	Ehire Adrianza	88	17	0	1	0	13	14	0.233	0.345	0.260
14	Adam Duvall	96	20	4	1	3	4	25	0.227	0.281	0.398
18	Shawn Payne	56	17	4	1	1	8	10	0.370	0.482	0.565
19	Chuckie Jones	71	6	3	0	1	3	37	0.090	0.141	0.179

That's a pretty ugly list. It looks like there are quite a bit of early struggles (good thing they aren't playing for the big league team because they would be finding a spot on the bench to keep warm) but there is time for all of these guys to recover.

The big stand outs offensively are Jarrett Parker (who is repeating the level in San Jose right now) and Shawn Payne in Augusta. Payne is a bit old for his level but he has some very interesting tools, with his great athleticism. The thing that makes me really like him is his walk rate 14.3% against a very respectable strike out rate 17.9%, it will be interesting to see how the Giants treat him as the season moves along.

The Giants top 2 prospects, Gary Brown and Joe Panik are off to a slow starts, but the nice thing to see is that even with batting averages in the low 200's they have both found ways to get on base at around league average rates. Neither is hitting for much power but I think that will come as they get used to the level and make adjustments.

One guy who is off to a real hot start that isn't on the list that might be someone to look out for is Roger Kieschnick. Kieschnick was regarded as a prospect a few years back but injuries and struggles in AA took a bit of his sheen off. Well now he is raking in Fresno (all PCL need to be taken with a grain of salt) and the power that he is always shown is there in a big way with an early season slugging percentage north of .600. He still doesn't walk too much and can put up big strike out numbers as well, but if he is healthy he could provide some pop as a left fielder.

Now the pitching prospects (all stats are through the April 28th):

Rank	Name	IP	ERA	FIP	GB%	K%	BB%	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
5	Eric Surkamp	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	Kyle Crick	12	3.09	5.17	61%	20%	22%	0	9.26	8.49
9	Heath Hembree	8	2.25	4.33	48%	16%	6%	1.13	2.25	5.63
12	Adalberto Mejia	8	13	6.44	37%	4%	15%	1.08	7.56	2.16
13	Clayton Blackburn	18	2.95	2.49	56%	24%	6%	0	2.45	9.82
15	Michael Kickham	18	2.55	4.11	44%	20%	15%	0.51	5.6	7.64
16	Seth Rosin	7	1.23	2.25	6%	41%	6%	1.23	2.45	15.95
17	Joshua Osich	7	0	1.55	33%	27%	4%	0	1.35	9.45
20	Jacob Dunnington	12	6.57	2.55	48%	18%	9%	0	3.65	7.3

The pitchers have gotten off to a much better start than the batters. Maybe it is a case that early in the season the pitching just being ahead of the hitting and with the warmer summer weather things will balance out a bit. Anyway something to keep an eye on.

The big thing that is nice to see is that a good portion of the pitchers have k rates above 20%, with Seth Rosin leading the way with an obscene 41% rate in his 7 inning pitched. The guy that is really impressing me right now is Clayton Blackburn who excelling in Augusta, he signed out of high school so he is still young but he seems to have good command (so/bb of 4) and a nice sinking fastball that has gotten a good amount of ground balls (56%), I am excited to see how he progresses.

The one early concern is Adalberto Mejia who made the jump from the DSL straight to low A Augusta. That was a pretty aggressive promotion for a guy who had yet to pitch in the US and is the 10th youngest guy in the league. So far he has struggled pretty bad, but he has improved over his last few games he has 2.3 innings pitched with 3 strikeouts and just one walk. Hopefully that is a sign is making some adjustments.

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Joe Panik

Joe Panik was the Giants first round draft pick last season and when his name was called there were some people that thought this was a reach. Well Panik signed quickly and was designated to the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes of the Northwest League and tore things up.

Panik isn’t known to have the most flashy of skills but he is a guy that seems to play above his tools and has excelled at just about every step in his baseball career. Panik was a short stop in college and at Salem-Keizer but switched over to second base while in the Arizona Fall League.

Scouts seem to be split on whether or not he can stick at the position long term defensively but with his tendency to play above his tools I hope he can stick it out at short where his bat would be very nice. Even if he has to switch to second base his bat profiles well there and his defense should be above average.

The big question is where the Giants see him fitting in and how fast they want to push him, if they see him as the second baseman of the future he may go straight to Double-A Richmond, if they want to keep him on the short stop track they will probably send him to High Single-A San Jose.

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2011	Giants (A-)	69	304	6	49	54	13	9.2 %	8.2 %	.126	.354	.341	.401	.467	.403	144

Best Tool: Panik’s best tool is his ability to make contact. On his way to being the Northwest League MVP he struck out in just 8.2 percent of his plate appearances and made consistent hard contact. Even in his stint in the Arizona Fall League he was able to overcome a slow start to finish with a .323 average.

Needs to work on: The one disappointment of his professional debut was that he didn’t show much power but that really isn’t the type of hitter that he profiles to be. It is kind of unfair to pick on that because there just isn’t too much in his stat line to complain about.

Ceiling: Panik had as good of a debut as you could ask for. His ultimate ceiling depends on if he can stay at short or if he needs to switch over to second base at the major league level. If he can stay at short his bat should be above average and could propel him to All-Star level. If he needs to move to second he loses a bit of that value and is probably is a fringe All-Star candidate on occasion but still solidly above average.

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Baseball America's Giants 2012 Top 10 Prospects

The Baseball America digital edition landed in my inbox this afternoon and I was quite happy that this issue was the NL West Prospect preview.

The Giants top 10 list is a bit different than the one that I was putting together but the Baseball America scouts did have some nice things to say about the Giants prospects.

Here is the top 10 list and a bit of the future blurb for each:

Draft Review: Day 1

Joe Panik, SS, St. John's University (NY)

With their first pick, the Giants took a bit of a shocker with Joe Panik. The early reaction is that this was a bit of a reach for the team, but the organization obviously saw some things they liked in him and were willing to take the chance on him. Panick is an offense-first shortstop who may not stick defensively at the position in the majors but would profile well as a second baseman.

Here is a great rundown on him from Perfect Game who had him slotted in the late first or supplemental round:

The New York-based scouts who have followed Panik since early in his high-school career have noted his year-to-year improvement, and that improvement was especially evident this year, particularly in his performance at the plate. He made a very easy transition to the new bat standards introduced at the NCAA level, hitting .402-9-56 vs. .374-10-53 with aluminum as a sophomore. He played a vital role in all phases of the game in leading St. John’s to an unexpected regional berth, topping the Red Storm in batting, homers, runs (59), stolen bases (21) and walks (42). Panik was also the glue to a Yarmouth-Dennis team that posted the best regular-season record in the Cape Cod League last summer, and reached the league final.

Scouts are impressed with his excellent feel for hitting, especially his polished, disciplined approach and strike-zone awareness. He earns high marks, as well, for his smooth, easy, compact left handed swing and ability to barrel up balls on a consistent basis. He flashes power, but it is mostly to the gaps. The single quality that scouts may most admire about Panik, though, is his general approach to the game. He is a very steady, dependable player with an excellent work ethic and game awareness. He comes to play every day and goes about his job with no flash, just substance. He never gets too high, or too low. Panik consistently plays above his tools as his power and speed, and range in the field are limited. Though his raw speed is not an asset, he more than makes up for it with superior base-running instincts.

Scouts are impressed with his long, lean athletic frame, but aren’t convinced he will remain at shortstop as he climbs the ladder in professional baseball. He has the soft hands and quick feet to play short, but his range and arm strength may be better suited for second base. He had labrum surgery on his shoulder following his freshman season at St. John’s and has some difficulty, at times, making the long throw from the hole at shortstop. Because of the way he plays the game, Panik ranks as one of the safer, more low-risk players in this draft, and that quality alone will make him appealing to a number of clubs.

If Panik signs, he has the potential to move through the system quickly, with an ETA to the majors of 2-3 years, with a ceiling of a solid everyday starting second baseman.

Kyle Crick, RHP, Sherman HS (TX)

With their second first round pick, the Giants took a high upside high school pitcher from Texas; Kyle Crick. Crick is a converted first baseman who has only been pitching for a year, so he is still very rough around the edges. He is a project with a live fastball (reportedly up to 97 mph) and some very crude secondary offerings. This pick was better received by draft pundits and I have to say that the Giants track record of developing pitchers makes me excited to see what they can do with this kid.

He is a raw player with a good fastball and a solid frame for a major leaguer at 6'3", 225 pounds that is built to handle a workload. His secondary stuff still needs work, but he has a slider that has potential to be a plus pitch for him. He will most likely take some time to get to the majors but he has a high ceiling as potential #2 or #3 starter.

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