A Look at the Giants Defense

To start off the young season the Giants defense has looked rather poor. This is a pretty big departure from the last few seasons where even with considerably less athletic teams the Giants have been above average defensively (since 2009 they have averaged +11.3 defensive runs saved [DRS] and a +47.76 in UZR as a team).

So what is the matter this year and should we expect this team to turn it around?

I’m inclined to say that this team is much better than they have shown so far and as the season plays out the defense should be a net positive. For the fun of it let’s take a look position by position to compare what the team has now compared to what they have had in seasons past.

Catcher:

Buster Posey is by all accounts at least an average defensive catcher, it is hard to quantify catcher defense but what has been reported seems to point that over a full season he is probably in the range of a plus 5 runs saved defender. If you look at the stats complied at Beyond the Boxscore he ranked 12th in 2010 and 16th in 2011 in less than a full season of work.

His backup Hector Sanchez probably isn’t as good defensively as Chris Stewart was but again from the reports he seems to be at least somewhere around league average and to this point he hasn’t really logged all that many innings behind the plate.

Overall the catcher defense should be a strength for the Giants.

First Base:

According to scouting reports Brandon Belt should be an above average defensive first baseman, but so far the very early stats don’t back it up but this is really far too early for anything definitive, according to both UZR (-1.2) and DRS (+1) he is right around average. I would say that as he gets more innings at first base his numbers should improve but I feel pretty safe going with that he is average at first base.

For Aubrey Huff at first base he has been above average with the Giants, for his career he has a negative UZR and DRS but that could be partly because he only played first base part time. As with Belt I would feel pretty comfortable saying that he is at least an average defensive first baseman and might be slightly above average when playing first base as a regular.

Overall the defense at first base should be about average.

Second Base:

Emmanuel Burriss is probably not a great defender but he is again not a bad option at second base. In his 1081 innings in the big leagues he has a positive UZR (+0.7) but a negative DRS (-5). From what I have seen of him and the scouting reports of his minor league career I would say that he is probably below average but not to the point that he would be a defensive liability. With his weak bat he probably shouldn’t be starting in the Major League’s but the Giants options are pretty limited.

Ryan Theriot at second base is not a bad choice but keep him away from short stop where he would bring back bad memories of the Miguel Tejada/Orlando Cabrera era. For his career Theriot grades out positively in both UZR (+7.8) and DSR (+4), he isn’t going to win a gold glove but he will make the plays you would expect an average second baseman to make.

Freddy Sanchez is a bit of a question mark here; with his shoulder still bothering him when he throws his past numbers probably don’t tell us all that much about what we should expect if he is able to come back. For his career he has been above average according to UZR (+16.9, 4.5 UZR/150) while DSR sees him as below average (-5). Taking the shoulder into account I wouldn’t feel comfortable calling him above average defensively so he is probably below average with the best case of being average.

Overall the defense at second base isn’t great and is probably below average.

Shortstop:

Brandon Crawford’s calling card is his defense. The scouts all seem to be in agreement that he should be above average. While his fielding percentage isn’t pretty right now (.933 with 4 errors) both UZR (+1.5, +28.2 UZR 150) and DRS (+3) think that he has been a very good shortstop this season. This backs up what the scouting reports say, and I think watching him play that he has been a net plus defensively getting to balls that would have been through the infield the last few seasons with guys like Tejada, Cabrera and Edgar Renteria manning short.

Overall Crawford should be one of the best defensive shortstops the Giants have had in a long while and should be a strength of this team defensively.

Third Base:

Pablo Sandoval who is another infielder with an ugly fielding percentage right now (.886) but like Crawford he hasn’t been as bad as that would suggest. According to UZR (-.01, -3.1 UZR/150) and DSR (-1) he has hurt the team with his defense but not by as much as the fielding percentage would suggest. In addition last season Sandoval was one of the best defensive third basemen in the National League so it is possible that he could bounce back to that level. Right now I would feel comfortable saying that over the course of the season he will at least be average defensively and could be better than that. What we are seeing now is probably the absolute worse you could expect and that would only make him slightly below average.

Overall, third base should be another position where the Giants are average and if Sandoval bounces back from his early mistakes could be above average.

Outfield:

Melky Cabrera has played all over the outfield in his career but in reality he is best suited for a corner spot defensively. In centerfield he is a liability but in the corner spots he is an average defender. Both UZR and DRS have his numbers hovering around 0 for the last few seasons in both right and left so it is pretty safe to assume that he is an average corner outfielder.

Angel Pagan in his career has shown that he is a good defender in the outfield. The only outlier appears to be 2011 and the start of 2012 where he has posted well below average numbers according to UZR and DSR. It might be the start of a new trend where his defense is slipping or it might just be the issues with defensive metrics where looking at single season numbers give you some pretty wild swings in the numbers. From what I have seen I am disposed to say that he is still a good defender but for this I will error on the conservative side and say that he is an average centerfielder.

Nate Schierholtz has the reputation as being one of the best right fielders in baseball and both DSR (+8) and UZR (+15.7, 10.1 UZR/150) back that up for his career. I don’t think I would be going out on a limb by suggesting that he is an above average outfielder.

Aubrey Huff will also be logging some time in the outfield for the Giants this season and that really hurts the teams defense. For one when Huff is in the outfield it most likely pushes Shierholtz to the bench and also that he is just plain not a great defender in the outfield. For his career in the outfield (both left and right combined) both UZR (-25.2, -12.2 UZR/150) and DSR (-10) suggest that he is hold your breath when a ball is headed to him bad. The Giants think he is a better option than Belt in the outfield but it probably still leaves whoever is out there as below average.

Gregor Blanco who is the Giants 4th/5th outfielder who for his career has played a little bit of each outfield spot and done pretty well in all three. There isn’t a huge Major League track record to go off of but I would feel comfortable saying he is an above average defender. In the end Blanco’s defense probably matters the least because he will most likely see the fewest innings barring someone above getting injured.

Overall the outfield defense can be good or bad depending on the lineup that Bochy puts out there. If it is Cabrera, Pagan, Schierholtz it is probably above average. If it is Huff, Pagan, Cabrera it is probably below average. With Bochy’s ability to put in defensive substitutions in late game situations I would say that on net the defense is probably around league average but that might be generous.

All together now:

Taking the team as a whole we have above two average spots, 3 average spots and one below average spot. The outfield defense is the biggest uncertainty that can range from above average to below average.

All in all with the Giants high strike out pitching staff, the defense isn’t called on to make a huge bulk of the outs and even with a below average defense this team should still do a good job at preventing runs. If the defense gets better like I expect they should be just fine going forward.

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The Great Keppinger vs. Fontenot Debate Ends Tonight

The deadline to tender a contract to players eligible for arbitration is at midnight eastern time tonight and the Giants have a few decisions left to make.

The main event for tonight revolves around the Giants choosing between infielders Jeff Keppinger and Mike Fontenot as their backup second baseman/utility infielder. To me the choice really isn't that hard, I am a fan of Fontenot who offers better defense, more power and is better suited for the utility role. Keppinger has his skills but it is hard to get past the poor speed and empty batting average for me.

Hot Stove: The Giants Backup Short Stop Question

The Giants last real need on the roster is some starting pitching depth in the high minors and a short stop to back up Miguel Tejada should he come down with a case of the olds and disintegrates in front of our eyes.

I went over the "6th starter" options in a post a couple days ago and now it is time to look at the backup short stop.

The in house options for this are a little better then what it was for the 6th starter.

Mike Fontenot: Fontenot is already on the team as a backup infielder, he is not a shortstop by trade but he could make a start in a pinch (13 career games at short). His offense isn't spectacular but it is at least major league caliber and he did have a break out year in 2008 with the Cubs where he hit .305/ .395/ .514 which if it came around again would get him an everyday job.

Mark DeRosa: DeRosa is a big money guy without a position home right now. He will likely be the Super Utility guy who is used to give off days to guys but again in a pinch could make some starts at short stop where he has 139 career games. The only issue is that he hasn't played there since 2008 and with any regularity since the early 00's. I doubt that he could give passable defense there everyday which would make me inclined to have him as a plan B, then there is also the question marks about whether he will be able to hit after wrist surgery. I will hope for the best but or first real sense of how things go will come in Spring Training.

Emmanuel Burriss: Burriss has been unlucky with the injuries the last couple seasons that have hurt his development since he won the starting 2B job out of Spring Training in 2009. Burris is still young turning 26 in a couple of weeks but has question marks about his defense and hitting, his 2008 stint with the Giants was decent .283/ .357/ .329 but 2009 was pretty bad .238/ .292/ .267. His defense is also not highly regarded. Zips has him at .264/ .314/ .314 with an OPS+ of 70, so not exactly exciting.

Brandon Crawford: Crawford is a glove first type short stop who is not likely to hit at the major league level. He would be a black hole of outs not seen since the days of Brian Bocock. If this were the Yankees or Red Sox and the team was stacked at every position offensively they could get away with a player like Crawford but that is just not the case. So Crawford needs to hit to get to the majors with the Giants and I am skeptical that it will happen.

The outside options:

Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera is in the decline side of his career and is coming off his worst offensive seasons to date. His defense is still rated pretty good with a UZR of 4.5 over the last 3 seasons. That being said he isn't much of an upgrade over the in house option of Emmanual Burris who is in his late 20's instead of late 30's.

Bobby Crosby: Crosby is a long way from his early Oakland years where he was an interesting hitter. Since 2006 he has hovered around the Mendoza Line never hitting above .238 or getting an OBP to the .300 mark. I would like to pass on Crosby.

Cristian Guzman: Guzman is another blah candidate that is not better then the in house options. The career .271/ .307/ .383 line is pretty ugly especially for a backup short stop who is not an excellent defender. I say pass here too.

Julio Lugo: Lugo in 2009 was pretty good hitting middle infielder hitting .280/ .352/ .405 the only issue is that he was absolutely putrid in the field giving back all of his value. He then turned around and had a dismal showing offensively in 2010. Lugo could be an ok option as a backup as long as the team is willing to put up with some below average defense.

Augie Ojeda: Ojeda has a couple things about him that I find appealing. First he has a very good walk rate, his career rate is 9.6% and that is nearly equal to his strike out rate that is 10.8% so even if he isn't getting hits he still does an ok job of getting on base. Second his defense is pretty good and that is always a plus. I think that he could be a cheap option that wouldn't be a bad choice. The walks tickle my fancy but everything else is pretty underwhelming.

Nick Punto: Punto isn't a true shortstop but he could play there with probably above average defense. The question is with his bat (that seems to be the question with every short stop) where he is not a great hitter. If he was signed it wouldn't be the end of the world but he isn't a clear upgrade over the in house options in my opinion.

Conclusion:


The Giants options should Miguel Tejada get hurt or fall off the cliff like Randy Winn is like picking through a pile of poop and saying this one is better because it has a few less chunks of corn in it. Basically the options all kind of suck.

This is more then anything a reflection of the general lack of depth at short stop through out the major leagues.

Do the Giants have to go out and get a guy? Of course not.

Could the Giants be in a tough spot if they don't and the in house option is a flaming pile of poop? Yes but then again one of the guys they go after could turn into the same thing. There is no good option here. If it was my team I would try to get a guy that I can stash in Fresno as insurance but that is just me.

What is likely to happen is that the Giants will hope that Miguel Tejada doesn't break down or suddenly stops hitting but they should still plan for the worst.

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