Giants vs Dodgers Series Preview

Giants vs Dodgers Series Preview

Okay, the opening series probably did not go the way we wanted it to go as fans. But its a new week and the Giants open up a three game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Some key take things to look at from the previous series. The pitching is good, the offense sucks and to many defensive errors. All in all I was hoping for a split but only loosing 3 out of 4 is not the worst thing in the world. Now on to the preview...

Game one: Drew Pomeranz vs Julio Urias

Both pitchers are making their season debuts. The Dodgers are the hotter team we all know what kind of offense they bring. They have already scored 15 runs in a game where as the Giants have only mustered a season high of two. The only thing to look forward to in this game is Pomeranz making his Giants debut. Other then that I imagine it will be another night of quiet bats and low scoring for the Giants.

Game two: Madison Bumgarner (0-1 2.57 ERA) vs Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-0 1.5 ERA)

With Bumgarner on the mound he gives the Giants the best chance to win, Ryu had the Giants number last season going 1-0 in three starts against the club. He gave up a total of 5 runs in those starts. But the Giants have their guy out there in Bumgarner. I like the Giants in this one.

Game three: Derek Holland (0-1 6.75 ERA) vs Ross Stripling (0-0 0.00 ERA)

Holland was bounced around in his first start in San Diego. It would be nice to see him bounce back against the rival to give the team some momentum in the game before the home opener. Ross Stripling did not surrender a run to the Diamondbacks in his first start, this one is a toss up.

It feels weird going into Dodger Stadium and there being no Puig, or Kershaw. Im not complaining but I feel like they added to the rivalry in so many ways. But hey, it is still Giants Dodgers. These teams do not like each other and never will. I would be hopeful for the Giants to get their first series win, but this is the two time defending NL champs. The division goes through Chavez Ravine. 

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Giants Vs Padres Series Preview

Giants Vs Padres Series Preview

Another Opening Day is upon us Giants Fans! Its 2019 and the season is about to begin. The Giants clearly go into this year with a lot of questions (who is playing left field). Anyway the Giants open 2019 on the road yet again, the Giants haven't hosted opening day since 2009 by the way. They open with a four game series in sunny San Diego where last year the Giants went 5-4 at Petco Park. They look to start the year off strong in what is going to be Bruce Bochy's last year at the helm. So here is to 2019, the most boring of offseasons in recent Giants history is over and these Games actually matter!

Game one: Madison Bumgarner vs Eric Lauer

Opening Day in San Diego, Mad Bum on the mound for maybe the final opening day in his Giants Career, Manny Machado making his Padre debut, I have even heard that Petco will be sold out? Will we see another magical opening day performance from Bumgarner like back in 2017? In all honesty I will be content with seven solid innings and enough run support to get the game to the bullpen. Giants take game one 4-2.

Game two: Derek Holland vs. Joey Lucchesi

Dutch Holland only went 6.0 or more innings 14 times last year which isn't terrible but I would like to see that number increase this year. In Games Holland started last year the Giants were a .500 team, he gives them a chance to win but I think the Padres win this one 5-2. Lucchesi builds off his decent 2018 campaign.

Game three: Dereck Rodriguez vs TBD

D-Rod makes his first start of the year after a surprise 2018 where he was one of the Giants biggest bright spots and most likely forced the trade of Chris Stratton. He struggled late in the year last season, but he will be out to prove that last year was not a fluke and he deserves to be here. The Padres have not announced a starter for this game. This one is a toss up, your guess is as good as mine.

Game four: Jeff Samardzija vs Chris Paddack

The Shark got roughed up in his last spring training outing against the A's, he faces Paddack who will be making his Major League debut, I will hopefully be able attend this game (work permitting). The Giants have already said that they will be cautious with Samardzija as he is coming off a season riddled with shoulder problems. Giants take the series finale by a score of 2-1, on get away day as they get ready to head up interstate 5 to Los Angeles.

I would hope for a series split, but I think that the Giants can take 3 of 4 here to start the year. The pitching is good, the defense is good enough to do well. The Giants have always played “Bochy ball” (solid defense and timely hitting) this team has the pieces to do that. Joe Panik has a had an incredible spring, the last few games Crawford showed impressive bat control going the opposite way. I like Duggar setting the table. This team might surprise people, in case you forgot this team was in the hunt for the division until they were swept in Cincinnati and the wheels fell off and the brass started to shut people down for the year. Maybe I’m just being an optimist but I believe in this team. So this year will be a surprise or I will be a drunk one or the other I’m okay with either outcome. HUMMMM BABY!

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2019, What to Expect From This Blog

2019, What to Expect From This Blog:

Hey Giants Fans, sorry I have been MIA from the blog recently okay that's a lie, this blog
has been dead for about four years now. However, sorry to announce that my older
brother; Scott has moved on to bigger and better things. It is now just me hopefully I can
do this consistently, while living up to the expectations that this blog was known for. I will
admit that advanced metrics really is not my strong suit and you can probably just count
on reading my opinions but I will give it my best effort. I am currently a transitioning Active
Duty United States Marine, I am currently stationed out in Yuma, Az. I will hopefully start
a new civilian career in July.

Okay, now some of my expectations for this blog this season, I would like to hopefully
push out a reasonable amount of content giving my opinion. To include series previews/
reviews, minor league player development, making people laugh with my in game
commentary/analysis on twitter. So buckle up Giants fans hopefully this year is more than
a Bruce Bochy farewell tour.

Getting To Know Aramis Garcia

The newest Giants Call-up will soon make his major league debut, as we adjust to life without Buster Posey.  The 25 Year old from Hawaii, has only spent 10 games with the River Cats,the Giants AAA Affiliate in those ten games he has posted a .237 BA .531 OPS. The big stat that pops out is the strike out percentage (29.3%) which if you look at his past seasons seems to be right about his career average. If you look at another Giants catching prospect in the farm system at AAA his K% is only 17.4% granted the average is about the same in the low .230’s. It also looks like Garcia does not hit for power only 11 Home Runs this year all of them at AA (Richmond), and If you look at the spread he is a 51.9% pull hitter which for a right handed guy at AT&T isn’t a bad thing necessarily.

I say let us see what the kid has got. It will probably be a few years before Joey Bart is major league ready. When Garcia is in the game defensively expect Bochy to have a lot influence on pitch calls. I would be content is he were to hit .200 and show signs that he can use the whole field.  

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Giants Vs. Mets Series Preview

It’s getting harder and harder to write these. After a less then acceptable performance against a team that the Giants should have played better against. The Giants head to the Big Apple for a four game series against the New York Mets. The Giants currently sit 8.0 games back of the Dbacks for the division lead. This is probably the last week that the Giants have to make any kind of run or they will start trying to dump some payroll and start to look forward to next season. 

Game one: Derek Holland (6-8 3.83 ERA) Vs. Zach Wheeler (8-6 3.75 ERA)

I imagine that skipper Bruce Bochy is channeling his inner Major League and is trying anything to get any offense out of this squad. But remember, Bochy ball has always been built on great pitching, solid defense, and timely hitting. In the 2nd half Derek Holland has posted a 2.89 ERA and opponents are hitting a meager 2.39 against Holland. However, Holland hasn’t gone deep into a game hardly, I’m looking for him to go more than five innings to give this bullpen some much needed rest. My question for this game? Can the Giants score more than onceover the course of multiple innings? So many times this year it seemed like just one inning of scoring is all we get. 

Game two: TBD Vs. Steven Matz (5-10 4.60 ERA)

The Giants haven’t announce a starter for this game yet however, Mets starter Steven Matz has given up a total of 23 runs in his last 5 appearances. 4 out of 5 of them were on the road but this could be good news for the Giants offense who has struggled to score runs. Since the Giants haven’t named a starter for this game yet it’s hard to look forward to anything. I imagine that Casey Kelly will get another start in this series after pitching well in Cincinnati.

Game three: TBD Vs. Noah Syndergaard (8-3 3.40 ERA)

The Giants also haven’t announced a starter for this game, but with Thor on the mound for the Mets in his ballpark I think it will be tough to win this game. No matter who the Giants send out to the rubber (maybe Stratton or Blach)

Game four: Madison Bumgarner (4-5 3.05 ERA) Vs Jake deGrom (8-7 1.71 ERA) 

This to me is the most intriguing game of this series. I would like to think that Bumgarner bounces back after a rocky start against the Reds. While deGrom this year seems to have fallen victim to no run support (sounds like Matt Cain) this guy can flat out pitch. Hopefully we see a pitcher’s duel for the ages and both guys go seven innings plus! 

My hope is that the Giants bounce back and take 3 out of 4 and with some help from the Angels and Mariners the Giants could possibly be somewhat back in the race. But ultimately it is on the Giants. How much do they want it? This team has shown no fight what so ever. So let’s go, show us the fans how much do you want it?

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Giants Vs Dodgers Series Recap

If you read my preview, then you would already know that I predicted that the Giants would take 2 out of 3 in LA. This was your typical Giants Dodgers series…It had everything from great pitching from the teams two aces, a bench clearing shove match, extra innings, and late inning drama. Through this whole series you could feel that the Giants were never out gunned even with the Dodgers high powered offense.

Series takeaways:

1. Nick Hundley is the Giants best option off the bench: The crafty vet who knows how to get the job done. Especially in late game situations. The table below courtesy of FanGraphs shows that Hundley as a Pinch Hitter in the 7^th inning or later is hitting .416

2. Puig is still a Bum: Call it antics, call it a temper tantrum, call it what ever the heck you want but it almost seems like he does this kind of stuff intentionally. I do not doubt his passion for the game but come on man, its time for you to grow up. This guy is wired differently and the "Slap heard round the world" could be a huge factor going forward for the Giants as it seemed to energize the team. The Giants have three games left vs their arch rivals and it happens to be the last series of the regular season with potential postseason implications.

      3. Andrew Suarez: He mentioned that he made a mechianical adjustment before his start on Tuesday. It seemed to have a positve effect, Suarez pitching line was mich better then his previous two starts. hopefully he can replicate this result again and get back to the stretch he had earlier in the year where he was one of the best pitchers on the staff. 

      In other news The Crazy Crabbers have made an Instagram Account! Go follow us! we are on Facebook and Twitter as well! Just search The Crazy Crabbers!

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Giants and Dodgers Series Preview

Game one:

Madison Bumgarner (4-4 2.69 ERA) Vs Clayton Kershaw (5-5 2.58 ERA)

What are the odds that on #NationalLeftHandersDay we get to see two of the best lefties in baseball duel it out in Chavez Ravine? Mad Bum has looked outstanding in his last two starts the only question is will the Giants give their ace some run support. The key to beating Kershaw is to hope to get to him early, be aggressive! As he likes to try and steal strike one. Look for Giants hitters to swing on a lot of first pitches tonight.

This is also the Giants first look against the new lineup for the Dodgers featuring new acquisitions Brian Dozier who is a career 0-2 vs Bumgarner and Manny Machado who has one career hit (double) against the big lefty. The Dodgers will also look to attack Bumgarner early because as we all know if you do not get to him early you might not get to him at all.

I’m not going call a winner in this game but I expect a low scoring game no more than five runs combined tonight.

Game two:

Andrew Suarez (4-8 4.64 ERA) Vs Alex Wood (7-6 3.58)

Are you surprised two more lefties going at it ( just kidding this is the NL West) in a division where lefties are king Andrew Suarez needs a bounce back start to show he belongs here. He was shaky against Pittsburgh in his last outing giving up back to back jacks and going just five innings. Key to this game is one can the Giants score early against Wood, to give the young kid some confidence and the ability to attack the strike zone.

My prediction Giants come up short in this game fall to the Dodgers 5-3.

Game Three

Derek Holland (6-8 3.97 ERA) Vs Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-0 2.12 ERA)

The question for the third and final game, can the Giants keep up the momentum on get away day? In the last five series the Giants are 4-1 on get away day. Holland has been outstanding since returning to the rotation. I like the Dutch Oven in this game and I’m looking for the offense to explode for 6 or more runs.

Overall ideally I would like to see the Giants take 2 of 3 in LA let’s build some momentum as of today the Giants sit 6.0 out of the division lead, not completely out of it but it’s time to wake up or the Giants will not be playing in October.

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Giants Links 4/11

It's Friday and that means it's time for some links. Here is the best of the best from around the web:

Giants Links:

Inside the numbers: a look at the Giants’ (early) two-out magic (BASG)

I wrote about the Giants early success with two-outs and if you can expect that to continue.

The new Matt Cain (McCovey Chronicles)

Chris Quick, formerly of Bay City Ball, wrote about how Matt Cain has evolved over the years. A very interesting post that I wish I had thought to write.

All The Home Runs Of Brandon Belt (El Lefty Malo)

Title is pretty self explanatory

Giants might not have room for Pablo Sandoval (BASG)

With talks suspended between the Giants and Sandoval, the Sandoval era could be coming to a close and Steve takes a closer look at why that might be the case.

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Tim Lincecum's Declining Fastball Usage

Today's graph illustrates Tim Lincecum's fastball usage since 2007.

The graph really points out how much Lincecum has changed as a pitcher as he as lost velocity on his fastball.  He has moved from the young phenom with a big fastball to a "savvy" vet trying to get by with secondary pitches.

The two games so far this season have not had great results but hey at least he has a 12 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

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Modeling a deal for Pablo Sandoval

The Giants rotund third baseman is coming to the end of his contract. The Giants want to keep him for the right price, Sandoval wants to stay for the right price. The two parties opinion of that right price seems to be miles apart at the moment.

So I thought this presented a great opportunity to take a look what the market price might be for a free agent Pablo Sandoval.

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy, I ran all the numbers based on the free agent signings made over the winter, here is the conclusion that I came to:

Now there are a number of caveats that need to be made and missing information that is not taken into account with this model. The issues include: his age, weight, injury issues, positional scarcity at third base, the lack of internal options to replace him and his work ethic, many of these were covered by Steve in his post that he wrote on the contract situation. The potential big one that isn't included is what a qualifying offer might do to his value if he waits until next season to sign, we have seen this already really change the markets for middle tier free agents over the past two winters and Sandoval could end up in that camp if he underperforms or gets injured this season. 

With all of the above taken into account, I think if the Giants want to make a deal to keep Sandoval they will need to come a lot closer to the numbers that the model suggests. Giants management might not be comfortable with the dollar figures but if they want to keep their third baseman they will need to pay up.

Read the whole thing, I think it is worth your time.

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Tim Lincecum learns to pitch to contact

Tim Lincecum’s calling card has always been his elite strikeout ability. Since he broke into the majors he has never failed to strikeout at least 23% of the batters that he has faced. From 2007 to 2013 no other starting pitcher has a higher strikeout percentage. Only Justin Verlander has more strikeouts, but Verlander has an extra 13 starts and just a 30-strikeout lead.

Yet this spring the strikeouts have just about disappeared.

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy I took a look at trying to figure out what this might mean. A snippet:

It is tough to read too much into spring stats, but the drop in strikeouts is very noticeable. With strikeout rate being one of the first pitching stats to stabilize, his change in approach is interesting and a stark departure from his career numbers or even his previous spring training stats.

For comparison I went back and calculated his strikeout rates from springs past:

2013: 21.1%
2012: 14.7%
2011: 28.0%
2010: 25.4%
2009: 23.3%
2008: 21.6%
2007: 23.3%

The only real departure was in 2012, when his strikeouts dipped below 20%. But he still managed a K/9 above six during that spring, more than twice what he has done this spring. In general he has produced a lower strikeout rate in the spring than the regular season, but never has it been close to this low.

Read the whole thing.

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Giants Links for 3/14/14

It's Friday and that means it's time for some links. Here is the best of the best from around the web:

Giants Links:

Vogelsong scraps new mechanics and reaps benefits, Susac shines in tie with Rangers (BASG):

Vogelsong was apparently trying to copy a few things from Clayton Kershaw but the results just weren't there, so last night he reverted back to his old mechanics to much better results. A sample size of one won't tell us anything but it is a positive that the results were better last night. I sure hope that he bounces back to somewhere near his 2011-2012 form.

Searching for Impact Talent (You Gotta Love These Kids):

Impact talent in the minor leagues is not plentiful and it is heavily concentrated in the front part of the draft. Considering all of that the Giants are doing pretty well for themselves.

Brandon Belt can't win over Giants fans (SJ Mercury News):

Brandon Belt talks about dealing with the crazy expectations of Giants fans and the crazy minority that always seem to be disappointed with him for some reason or another. 

Baseball Links:

Introducing Populous’ Living Park, an exclusive baseball stadium for the future (SI):

A very cool, blue sky style imagining of what a baseball stadium might look like in the future.

Moneyball … But With Money (Grantland)

This would be a nice blueprint for the Giants to follow. They have the money to go get the players that they really want but not quite enough to go crazy like say the Yankees or Dodgers. I think that Brian Sabean has done an underrated job of maximizing the assets that he has on hand and if the Giants are to continue to be successful that will need to continue. 

Pebble Hunting: Sounding the Depths of Each Team's Rotation (Baseball Prospectus $):

I know that this will come as a huge surprise but the Giants pitching depth is not the greatest, based on this they come in 21st place. The one wild card that isn't included would be if the Giants bypassed both Michael Kickham and Yusmeiro Petit and took a chance on the higher upside of Edwin Escobar even though he has less high minors/major league experience.

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Baseball Prospectus projects the San Francisco Giants

When projections are posted it one of my favorite times of the off-season, it allows for some fun conversations and dreaming of the baseball that is just around the corner. Well today Baseball Prospectus released their projections, known as PECOTA and it is surprisingly optimistic about the Giants heading into 2014.

I took a look at what it all means for Bay Area Sports Guy:

Here are some of the highlights:

• The Giants best player is projected to be Buster Posey. His 4.3 WARP (a description of this metric can be found here) is projected to be the 8th best in all of the National League.
• Six of the Giants’ eight starting position players have a projected WARP of at least 2.0.
• Continuing on that note, five of the eight starting spots have a league average projection for their respective position. The only spots that miss the cut were second base, shortstop and left field.
• Four out of the five starting pitchers project to at least a 2.0 WARP. They are the only team in the NL with that distinction (the Nationals just missed out with Doug Fister projecting to 1.9).
• The Giants have the third best offense in the National League according to Baseball Prospectus’ True Average measure, which adjusts for park effects.
• The Giants are projected to have the fourth best run differential in the National League.

Read the whole thing.

Thoughts on Extending Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval is playing in his last season under team control with the Giants and the question is turning from his waistline to whether or not the Giants should extend him. I took a look at the question over at Bay Area Sports Guy:

The idea of extending Sandoval is an interesting question. There is no doubt that he is a very talented player; his 2009 and 2011 seasons were outstanding, his 2012 and 2013 were injury plagued but above average and no one will forget his performance in the Giants’ World Series victory over the Tigers.

On the downside there is the question of his size, which has been an issue since he broke out in 2009 and has gone up and down over his career.

What makes the idea of a long term deal a bit nerve-racking is that he reported to the team much larger than the team would have liked in 2013, and he didn’t seem all that apologetic about that in an interview with Jeff Passan. Without the carrot (no pun intended) of playing for a mega-deal, will Sandoval have the discipline to stay in good enough shape to remain an above average player?

The one bright sign on the weight front, is that this offseason he has done his workouts on his own, without the team guiding his every move. The results are evident in the photo seen here. Perhaps Sandoval will be able to maintain this new routine into the future and end, once and for all, all of the #FatChat stuff.

So now comes the big question, how big of a contract is Sandoval looking at?

It is a good post to read.

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Reactions to the Michael Morse Signing

Reactions to the Giants signing Michael Morse:

Giants take a gamble on Mike Morse - Me at BASG

The Giants are taking a gamble that he can play the Pat Burrell role from 2010, three at-bats and then a late defensive replacement while providing some home runs down the lineup. Perhaps that’s not a bad bet to make, but it’s far from a sure thing. If he stays healthy and hits the Giants might have a bargain on their hands. If not, well, Gregor Blanco is probably a pretty decent fallback with Morse perhaps helping out against left-handed pitching.

It is not an ideal solution to the left field problem but in this free agent/trade market there wasn’t really a perfect solution to be found.

The Beast Commeth - You Gotta Like These Kids

Verdict: Good signing, especially considering the alternatives. Giving up 2 big prospects for Mark Trumbo? Chasing a bigger contract in years with Corey Hart (an overbid situation that might have/didn't happen)? Trading a SP prospect for 1 year of Brett Gardner? All this costs is a little cashish, and has some good upside, with a PLAN IN PLACE for dealing with his defensive shortcomings.

Contingency Plans: Its not perfect by any means, but if Pagan gets hurt again you send Blanco/Perez to platoon in CF. If Morse gets hurt or folds, you have Blanco/Perez as the backup plan. If Pence gets hurt you're screwed, because you don't have another 5/90MM Kale Krunching Ironman ready to go. Blanco or Perez in CF would be able to sub in for Morse still if lightning strikes twice on Pagan. Further, you still have all your AAA guys except for Peggs ready to give it a shot. No team has a full time OF ready to step in for injury. Not many teams have 3 full time OFs if you actually take the time to look around MLB. Except for the Dodgers. Those guys have a 60MM OF, all shiny and what not. We'll see how this plays out, its not the worst solution to the markets problems

Mike Morse signs, and the Giants swap defense for home runs - McCovey Chronicles

Dingers are grand. But there are other ways for players to be valuable. And there are certainly a lot of ways they can be awful. I'm not optimistic about this one.

I'll embrace the risk, though, because this team has been feckless for a while, now. Heck, wind him up and let's see if he can hit 30 homers again. Could happen. And the auxiliary benefit of the move is the Giants have some decent outfield depth for the first time in a while. Blanco is a pretty good fourth outfielder, just as Juan Perez is almost an ideal fifth outfielder. If the Giants mix and match, this could work out.

It's not Nelson Cruz for five years. It's not Shin-Soo Choo for seven. It's not a three-year deal, and it's not Jeff Francoeur. Just think of all the ways it could be worse! As such, it's pretty harmless. Except for all the harm it could cause. But, dingers! I like those. Apparently, the Giants do, too. It's not the move I would have made, but it's not the move that makes me dust off the torchfork, either.

Mike Morse: Very Large, Slow Giant - Lefty Malo

In other words, Morse is a buy-low lottery ticket. (And believe you me, a $6 M base salary these days is low, low, low.) It's a nice get for a team with little in the upper minors to speak of, hitting-wise, and lacking the resources of the big... oh wait. What did a New York scribe recently call the low-budget team from Queens? The San Diego Mets?

Then again, no one in their right Giant mind wanted Nelson Cruz for three years or Shin-Soo Choo for seven (or eight). So was Mike Morse, who has a 30-HR season in his recent past, the best possible scenario? We'll never know definitively. Retroactive rumors will emerge that the Giants were THIS CLOSE to trading for Brett Gardner or Josh Willingham, but they weren't willing to part with, well, pick a prospect. Morse isn't really what most people wanted, but then again, what people wanted wasn't so hot, either

Morse’s one-year deal with Giants a bigger risk for him than the team - The Strike Zone SI.com

As a righthanded power source, Morse is a nice compliment to the lefthanded Blanco, whose game is based around speed and defense. In addition, Morse can also play first base, where he will occasionally spell lefty Brandon Belt, and he will be the team’s best pinch-hitter on days that he doesn’t start. At $6 million, Morse is earning what, in free agency, is now a part-time salary but with half the commitment; already this offseason the Indians have signed David Murphy to a two-year, $12 million deal and the Tigers signed Rajai Davis for two years and $10 million to be backups. 

For the Giants, it’s a nice fit. For Morse, however, it’s a risk.

And the hottest take of them all from the genius behind 8th Inning Weirdness:

Overall, the consensus is that the Giants are hoping that Morse rebuilds his value and hits a bunch of home runs on a low risk one year deal. I can live with that.

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Assessing the Giants Weak Spots

The trade deadline is just 33 days away and the trade rumor machine is already heating up. The Giants as currently constructed are far from perfect and they could certainly use some help in getting better if they want to defend their title.

To help get an idea of where the Giants are at currently and where they could use help, over at Bay Area Sports Guy I took a look at where the Giants weak spots were and what the outlook looks like.

Offensive weak spots

The injury bug has not been kind, taking out Angel Pagan until at least mid-September, Pablo Sandoval for the last couple weeks, not to mention Marco Scutaro, Brandon Crawford and now Joaquin Arias. 

With all of the injuries, the Giants could use some depth — especially in the outfield with Pagan needing surgery on his hamstring, and possibly in the infield depending on the extent of Arias’ hamstring injury. But overall, things aren’t too bad. With 319 runs the Giants are the 5th highest scoring team in the National League and should be able to score enough as long as they don’t lose too many more players.

Starting Pitching weak spots:

This is the first season going back to 2006 that the Giants are not in the top third of NL teams in either starting pitcher ERA or FIP. That sustained run of excellence is impressive and perhaps we have grown spoiled expecting top flight starting pitching year after year. This year, things have fallen off a cliff.

Matt Cain is in the middle of the worst season of his career, Tim Lincecum has been better than last season but is still allowing earned runs at a rate 25% higher than league average, Barry Zito has been his normal self (with some horrible home/road splits), Ryan Vogelsong was a disaster in all but his last start before getting hurt, and Chad Gaudin filled in admirably before getting hurt himself and hitting the disabled list.

Relief Pitching weak spots:

At first glance the Giants’ bullpen doesn’t look so bad. They currently rank 5th in the NL in both ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) with marks of 3.14 and 3.47, respectively. Even looking at an individual level the only member of the bullpen with an ERA above 4.00 is George Kontos. 

On the surface everything looks good, but a deeper look shows that everything hasn’t been perfect this season.

Be sure to read them all.

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Graphing Giants Runs Scored and Allowed by Inning

Data courtesy Baseball Reference, runs scaled to 9 innings total

If it feels like the Giants are always fighting from behind it is because they probably are, the Giants have been outscored in the first 5 innings of games by a healthy margin this year.

I wouldn't consider myself a great baseball stragestist but I will go out on a limb and say that this is bad and if they want to win more games than the they lose they should stop doing this.

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Tim Lincecum's Declining Strikeout Percentage

Data courtesy of Fangraphs

Today's graph illustrates the three month moving average for Tim Lincecum's strikeout percentage since 2008.

The graph makes me sad because it just reminds me how awesome a pitcher Lincecum was from 2008 to 2011.

Anyway happy Linceum Day, hopefully he regains some of that old magic against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw today.

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Giants OPS+ rankings by position

Data courtesy of baseball-reference.com

A fun graph showing how the Giants stack up compared to the league average production position by position.

Overall the team does pretty well with only 1B and CF below average. The first base spot is also not as bad as this seems with Brandon Belt actually sporting an OPS+ of 115 but it is tough when compared to the position with the highest offensive output.

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What's the matter with Ryan Vogelsong?

Ryan Vogelsong has not gotten off to a great start and it lead me to take a look at what has and has not been different with him this season compared to previously with the Giants.

I looked into the statistics and I think for the most part he has been a victim of bad luck.

Here is what I wrote for Bay Area Sports Guy:

When you look at the peripheral numbers things really haven’t changed all that much; in 2011 he struck out 18.5% of the batters he faced while walking 8.1%, last year he struck out 20.1% while walking 7.9%, and so far this season he has struck out 18.8% while walking 7.5%.

For the most part he is striking out and walking about the same number of people. That’s good news for Vogelsong as we go forward.

If we switch and take a look at his batted ball data, courtesy of Fangraphs:

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%
2011	Giants	1.34	20.40%	45.60%	34.00%	9.30%	8.20%	7.00%	16.70%
2012	Giants	1.14	18.50%	43.50%	38.00%	11.10%	8.20%	6.70%	7.70%
2013	Giants	1.14	20.00%	42.60%	37.40%	7.00%	18.60%	6.10%	0.00%
Total	- – -	1.11	20.90%	41.60%	37.60%	11.30%	8.90%	6.90%	11.50%

Things look mostly the same over the last three seasons.

• A few less ground balls this year than the previous two, but nothing drastic.
• A slightly higher line drive rate, but still lower than his excellent 2011 season.
• The flyball rate is right in between the last two years.
• His infield fly ball rate is lower, but not significantly so.

The big difference is that the number of balls that have gone over the fence per flyball is much higher than the last two seasons and well above his career rate.

If we look further into the balls that have been put into play against Vogelsong, we see that currently 35% are falling in for hits. The number of balls in play that turn into hits is not something that is fully in the control of the pitcher and tends to hover around 30%. If we again take a look at the mix of balls that Vogelsong has given up you would expect that only 29.8% of the balls in play would have fallen in for hits with an average defense behind him.

Going forward I wouldn’t expect him to continue to give up home runs and fly balls like every hitter he faced was David Ortiz. Nor would I expect him to continue to allow 35% of balls in play to fall into hits, especially not with the Giants posting the highest ultimate zone rating in baseball right now.

Check out the full thing.

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