Trade Deadline Buzz: Peguero for Cuddyer

Over at ESPN Matt Meyers has a post on 5 NL trades that should happen(Insider Required) and one of them involves the Giants trading for Michael Cuddyer.

It's possible that the Giants will decide to bask in the glow of their 2010 title and not bother with a mid-season upgrade, but this club is in desperate need of some offense. If they get a bat or two, they can repeat.

The Twins need to start looking to the future, and Cuddyer, who's 32 and a free agent after this year, probably isn't a part of it. He's an ideal NL player because he can play first base or right field, as well as second or third in a pinch. Therefore, he would give manager Bruce Bochy a ton of flexibility on double switches. Also, Cuddyer has the extra special veteran glow the Giants so desperately covet.

Francisco Peguero, who Keith Law ranked as the Giants' No. 4 prospect in the preseason, missed the first couple of months of the season with a knee injury. The 23-year-old has posted an .849 OPS since his recent promotion to Double-A, and would be a good return for a free-agent-to-be such as Cuddyer.

This is an interesting trade idea and I think that it makes a good amount of sense for both teams. Using this handy dandy trade evaluation tool if we assume that Cuddyer has a WAR of 1.25 over the last 2 months of the season he would have a surplus value of approximately $3.2 million.

The other wrinkle to consider is the possibility of getting some potential draft picks if he leaves as a free agent as MLB Trade Rumors has him listed as a potential Type A Free Agent which would increase his potential value another $5 million or so giving him a total potential surplus value of around $8 million.

On the flip side Peguero is a toolsy B prospect with good speed and some decent gap power. He doesn't walk at all so he is dependent on being able to hit for a high average to be valuable which is the big unknown for him as he has just 17 games above A ball. A prospect of his caliber should be worth around $4-5 million, this would make it a pretty fair trade for both teams.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Where Did Brian Wilson's Fastball Velocity Go?

San Francisco Giants pitcher Brian Wilson winds up during his MLB National League baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals in San Francisco, California, April 8, 2011. REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

Brian Wilson, like many closers in baseball is a flame thrower. However this season there seems to be a little less zip on fastball.

In 2009 Wilson averaged a fastball velocity of 96.47 mph as he cemented himself as one of the elite relief pitchers in baseball with a 2.74 ERA, 2.50 FIP and a 2.36 tRA. In 2010 he took another big step and became arguably the best closer in baseball with a 1.81 ERA, 2.19 FIP and 1.98 tRA while averaging a fastball at 95.84 mph.

This year both his numbers and his fastball seem to have taken a step back. Heading into the All-Star break Wilson has a 3.14 ERA, a 3.24 FIP and a 3.57 tRA. Those are all good numbers but not on the level that we have come to expect from the eccentric closer. On top of everything his fastball has slowed to 94.22 mph this season.

So where did the velocity go?

Here is the chart of every fastball he has thrown since the beginning of 2009:

The orange lines are each fastball while the black line represents the season average. The drop this season is fairly large and quite noticeable.

So what is causing this drop? It doesn't appear that he is sacrificing some mph for control as his walk rate has jumped this seasons to its highest level since his short stint in the majors in 2006.

It is possible that some of it might be arm fatigue after pitching deep into the postseason and notching back to back 70+ inning seasons and always being willing to take the ball with little rest.

The most likely cause however is that he has changed the way that he throws his fastball. In 2009 and 2010 his fastball averaged about 3 and a half inches of tail towards a right handed batter. This season his fastball has averaged 6 and three quarters inches of tail. The answer to the case of the missing velocity is likely that Wilson is giving up some giddy up for more movement.

So far the extra movement hasn't paid off in better numbers but I think that Wilson has earned to have a fairly long leash to try to figure out how to control this new weapon.

---

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

Barry Zito the Ultimate Front Runner Comes Through in a Squeaker

San Francisco Giants Barry Zito pitches in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at AT&T Park in San Francisco on October 2, 2010. Zito walked in two runs in the first and took the loss in the 4-2 game. UPI/Terry Schmitt......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Barry Zito is among the ultimate front runners, if his team scores some runs for him he is nearly impossible to beat. After the Giants shellacked the Tigers last week he ran up his career numbers in games where his offense scores 4+ runs a game to 112-6, good enough for .949 winning percentage.

The problem for Zito is that when he doesn't get the run support he looks like a much poorer pitcher. His record in games where he gets 3 runs or less is a much less impressive at 33-115.

More than anything this is probably illustrates that inefficiencies in pitching wins. If you look at the splits for these games his numbers are all roughly similar but maybe slightly better when he gets better run support.

Looking for Areas of Improvement for the Giants

There are 24 full days left until the trade deadline and it is time to take stock of where the Giants need help and more importantly how much these players can help the team this season.

First up today is looking at comparing what the Giants have gotten from their players compared to what is league average for the National League.