Giants Links 4/11

It's Friday and that means it's time for some links. Here is the best of the best from around the web:

Giants Links:

Inside the numbers: a look at the Giants’ (early) two-out magic (BASG)

I wrote about the Giants early success with two-outs and if you can expect that to continue.

The new Matt Cain (McCovey Chronicles)

Chris Quick, formerly of Bay City Ball, wrote about how Matt Cain has evolved over the years. A very interesting post that I wish I had thought to write.

All The Home Runs Of Brandon Belt (El Lefty Malo)

Title is pretty self explanatory

Giants might not have room for Pablo Sandoval (BASG)

With talks suspended between the Giants and Sandoval, the Sandoval era could be coming to a close and Steve takes a closer look at why that might be the case.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

Tim Lincecum's Declining Fastball Usage

Today's graph illustrates Tim Lincecum's fastball usage since 2007.

The graph really points out how much Lincecum has changed as a pitcher as he as lost velocity on his fastball.  He has moved from the young phenom with a big fastball to a "savvy" vet trying to get by with secondary pitches.

The two games so far this season have not had great results but hey at least he has a 12 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

Modeling a deal for Pablo Sandoval

The Giants rotund third baseman is coming to the end of his contract. The Giants want to keep him for the right price, Sandoval wants to stay for the right price. The two parties opinion of that right price seems to be miles apart at the moment.

So I thought this presented a great opportunity to take a look what the market price might be for a free agent Pablo Sandoval.

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy, I ran all the numbers based on the free agent signings made over the winter, here is the conclusion that I came to:

Now there are a number of caveats that need to be made and missing information that is not taken into account with this model. The issues include: his age, weight, injury issues, positional scarcity at third base, the lack of internal options to replace him and his work ethic, many of these were covered by Steve in his post that he wrote on the contract situation. The potential big one that isn't included is what a qualifying offer might do to his value if he waits until next season to sign, we have seen this already really change the markets for middle tier free agents over the past two winters and Sandoval could end up in that camp if he underperforms or gets injured this season. 

With all of the above taken into account, I think if the Giants want to make a deal to keep Sandoval they will need to come a lot closer to the numbers that the model suggests. Giants management might not be comfortable with the dollar figures but if they want to keep their third baseman they will need to pay up.

Read the whole thing, I think it is worth your time.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

Tim Lincecum learns to pitch to contact

Tim Lincecum’s calling card has always been his elite strikeout ability. Since he broke into the majors he has never failed to strikeout at least 23% of the batters that he has faced. From 2007 to 2013 no other starting pitcher has a higher strikeout percentage. Only Justin Verlander has more strikeouts, but Verlander has an extra 13 starts and just a 30-strikeout lead.

Yet this spring the strikeouts have just about disappeared.

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy I took a look at trying to figure out what this might mean. A snippet:

It is tough to read too much into spring stats, but the drop in strikeouts is very noticeable. With strikeout rate being one of the first pitching stats to stabilize, his change in approach is interesting and a stark departure from his career numbers or even his previous spring training stats.

For comparison I went back and calculated his strikeout rates from springs past:

2013: 21.1%
2012: 14.7%
2011: 28.0%
2010: 25.4%
2009: 23.3%
2008: 21.6%
2007: 23.3%

The only real departure was in 2012, when his strikeouts dipped below 20%. But he still managed a K/9 above six during that spring, more than twice what he has done this spring. In general he has produced a lower strikeout rate in the spring than the regular season, but never has it been close to this low.

Read the whole thing.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

Giants Links for 3/14/14

It's Friday and that means it's time for some links. Here is the best of the best from around the web:

Giants Links:

Vogelsong scraps new mechanics and reaps benefits, Susac shines in tie with Rangers (BASG):

Vogelsong was apparently trying to copy a few things from Clayton Kershaw but the results just weren't there, so last night he reverted back to his old mechanics to much better results. A sample size of one won't tell us anything but it is a positive that the results were better last night. I sure hope that he bounces back to somewhere near his 2011-2012 form.

Searching for Impact Talent (You Gotta Love These Kids):

Impact talent in the minor leagues is not plentiful and it is heavily concentrated in the front part of the draft. Considering all of that the Giants are doing pretty well for themselves.

Brandon Belt can't win over Giants fans (SJ Mercury News):

Brandon Belt talks about dealing with the crazy expectations of Giants fans and the crazy minority that always seem to be disappointed with him for some reason or another. 

Baseball Links:

Introducing Populous’ Living Park, an exclusive baseball stadium for the future (SI):

A very cool, blue sky style imagining of what a baseball stadium might look like in the future.

Moneyball … But With Money (Grantland)

This would be a nice blueprint for the Giants to follow. They have the money to go get the players that they really want but not quite enough to go crazy like say the Yankees or Dodgers. I think that Brian Sabean has done an underrated job of maximizing the assets that he has on hand and if the Giants are to continue to be successful that will need to continue. 

Pebble Hunting: Sounding the Depths of Each Team's Rotation (Baseball Prospectus $):

I know that this will come as a huge surprise but the Giants pitching depth is not the greatest, based on this they come in 21st place. The one wild card that isn't included would be if the Giants bypassed both Michael Kickham and Yusmeiro Petit and took a chance on the higher upside of Edwin Escobar even though he has less high minors/major league experience.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

Baseball Prospectus projects the San Francisco Giants

When projections are posted it one of my favorite times of the off-season, it allows for some fun conversations and dreaming of the baseball that is just around the corner. Well today Baseball Prospectus released their projections, known as PECOTA and it is surprisingly optimistic about the Giants heading into 2014.

I took a look at what it all means for Bay Area Sports Guy:

Here are some of the highlights:

• The Giants best player is projected to be Buster Posey. His 4.3 WARP (a description of this metric can be found here) is projected to be the 8th best in all of the National League.
• Six of the Giants’ eight starting position players have a projected WARP of at least 2.0.
• Continuing on that note, five of the eight starting spots have a league average projection for their respective position. The only spots that miss the cut were second base, shortstop and left field.
• Four out of the five starting pitchers project to at least a 2.0 WARP. They are the only team in the NL with that distinction (the Nationals just missed out with Doug Fister projecting to 1.9).
• The Giants have the third best offense in the National League according to Baseball Prospectus’ True Average measure, which adjusts for park effects.
• The Giants are projected to have the fourth best run differential in the National League.

Read the whole thing.

Thoughts on Extending Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval is playing in his last season under team control with the Giants and the question is turning from his waistline to whether or not the Giants should extend him. I took a look at the question over at Bay Area Sports Guy:

The idea of extending Sandoval is an interesting question. There is no doubt that he is a very talented player; his 2009 and 2011 seasons were outstanding, his 2012 and 2013 were injury plagued but above average and no one will forget his performance in the Giants’ World Series victory over the Tigers.

On the downside there is the question of his size, which has been an issue since he broke out in 2009 and has gone up and down over his career.

What makes the idea of a long term deal a bit nerve-racking is that he reported to the team much larger than the team would have liked in 2013, and he didn’t seem all that apologetic about that in an interview with Jeff Passan. Without the carrot (no pun intended) of playing for a mega-deal, will Sandoval have the discipline to stay in good enough shape to remain an above average player?

The one bright sign on the weight front, is that this offseason he has done his workouts on his own, without the team guiding his every move. The results are evident in the photo seen here. Perhaps Sandoval will be able to maintain this new routine into the future and end, once and for all, all of the #FatChat stuff.

So now comes the big question, how big of a contract is Sandoval looking at?

It is a good post to read.

---

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.