Go Giants

What a great game. Really couldn't have asked for much more than this. 

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World Series Preview: Giants vs Tigers

The Vegas odds favor the Tigers. Actually, the odds are pretty heavy in favor of the Tigers. I guess that is what happens when you sweep the Yankees. The guys who set the lines aren't stupid, but this seems to really discount the Giants chances so let's take a look.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Wednesday, October 24, 5:00 PM: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito PREVIEW

Thursday, October 25, 5:00 PM: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Saturday , October 27, 5:00 PM: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Sunday, October 28, 5:00 PM: Max Scherzer vs. Matt Cain

Monday, October 29, 5:00 PM*: Justin Verlander vs. Barry Zito

Wednesday, October 31, 5:00 PM*: Doug Fister vs. Madison Bumgarner

Thursday, November 1, 5:00 PM*: Anibal Sanchez vs. Ryan Vogelsong

*If necessary. There is always the chance that if the Tigers get down we'll see Verlander on short rest or Lincecum instead of Zito or Bumgarner for a second go-around.

Odds:

	Giants	Tigers
Game 1	42%	58%
Game 2	55%	45%
Game 3	51%	49%
Game 4	50%	50%
Game 5	37%	63%
Game 6	55%	45%
Game 7	55%	45%

No real surprises here. Verlander moves the Tigers to the favorite on the games he starts. Cain and Vogelsong make the first two games in Detroit toss-ups. The big wild card: can Bumgarner fix whatever broke in his mechanics? The Giants think he has, so I really hope that is the case.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Tigers
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	9%	16%
in 6 games	16%	15%
in 7 game	17%	14%
Total:	49%	51%

With both teams being even it's no surprise that the chances of either team sweeping are low. The Tigers' best chance to win the Series is to finish things off at home in five games or less. Any longer and things favor the Giants.

Playing around with things, if Zito is capable of beating Verlander things move heavily into the Giants favor (67% chance of winning series). While a split of the first two games leaves things at 50/50 headed to Detroit.

Getting down 3-1 is probably a very bad idea. If that happens again, the odds of coming back slip to just 11% (by comparison their odds against St. Louis were at 18% in that situation).

I may be a homer, but my prediction is Giants in 7. I want another parade!

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How the Giants came to acquire Gregor Blanco

Baseball America has an excellent column up on how the Tigers and Giants built their championship teams. It is full of interesting tidbits but the one that really jumped out at me was Gregor Blanco.

Former Giants catcher Brian Johnson was the pro scout who covered the upper levels of the Nats system in 2011 and naturally had Bryce Harper at the top of his pref list. But he had Blanco next.

"Our scouts liked him and thought he could compete for a starting role," Shelley said. "We saw a guy with a .360 career OBP, who could defend up the middle, who could run and swing the bat. We also had followed him in Venezuela in winter ball, and (big league hitting coach) Hensley Meulens and our minor league infield rover, Jose Alguacil, helped recruit him to sign with us.

"We also saw that he hadn't had much luck; his average on balls in play was low, and we thought that played a part in his low average last year. Even when he didn't hit, he still had a .350 OBP. So he was at the top of our list last offseason. There's no question it was a group effort with a lot of people involved in acquiring him."

Blanco has made the Giants look good, hitting .244/.333/.344 during the regular season, when he ranked second on the club with 26 steals. He posted a .364 OBP through the first two rounds of playoffs.

There is so much talk about the Giants being behind the times but I really think that perspective is outdated. The Giants do well in mixing a bit of everything into their player acquisition process and it seems to find many players that other teams have left for dead.

Hat Tip to Giants Nirvana who tweeted out the link on Twitter.

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The Giants DH Options

With the World Series comes games in American League ballparks.

With games in American League ballparks comes the weird rule of having a guy called the "designated hitter" to bat for your pitcher.


Seeing as the Giants don't do this kind of thing often I took a look at the options over to them over at Bay Area Sports Guy.

Here is a sampling of the options:

If Bochy wants to play for the platoon advantage he will look to add another left handed bat, so that would be either the switch hitter Sanchez or Huff. If he wants to put his strongest defense on the field he will go with Arias at third and Sandoval at DH. If he wants someone who has the potential to hit the ball over the fence… well there really isn’t anyone but I guess he might choose Nady.

Check out the full thing. There is a pro and con list and everything!

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Barry Zito fulfills prophecy, extends Giants season

Wow what a game.

Barry Zito came up huge, winning a must win game to extend the Giants season at least one more day. Going 7.2 innings with just one intentional walk it was about as great as you could have asked.

And in a way I did ask for it. A few weeks ago I had a weird premonition that Zito would be a hero after it came out he would be in the postseason rotation.

Here is what I said:

It was an amazing night and I am glad he made me look good.

#RallyZito will save us /sobs into a pillow

Somehow this is trending in the United States.

It's come to this guys because the numbers for this game sure don't give you much comfort. Cardinals projected to win about 60 percent of the time according to my model and the odds of the Giants advancing sit at 13 percent right now.

So yeah, freak out and #RallyZito.

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Detailed look at the Giants RISP troubles from last night

The Giants with runners in scoring position last night were abysmal. The Giants put a bunch of guys on base and then decided that it would be rude to their hosts to drive them in.

For those that want to take a stroll through the nightmare I am going to go through each at bats the Giants had taking a detailed look at each one.

Top of the 2nd:

Brandon Belt walks, Gregor Blanco grounds out to first moving Belt to second with two outs.

Situation: Brandon Crawford, runner on second, two outs:



Crawford get’s one pitch that is near the middle of the strike zone on a pretty nice slider from Lohse and swings through it. Everything else is on the corner’s or well outside the strike zone. Crawford has a nice at bat and draws a walk.

Verdict: Good at bat, decent result

Situation: Matt Cain, runners on first and second, two outs:



Cain gets a heavy does of hard two seamers on the outside corner. Lohse gets a generous called strike two and then finally gets Cain on a caught foul tip. Not a bad at bat considering that Cain is a pitcher who came up with two outs.

Verdict: Good at bat, bad result

Top of the 3rd:

Angel Pagan leads off with a single, Marco Scutaro doubles. Runners on second and third with the heart of the order coming up, a big inning looks possible.

Situation: Pablo Sandoval, runner on second and third, no outs:



With the infield back Sandoval at the very least gets the runner in from third with his grounder to short. The ball wasn’t hit particularly hard but it was a productive out that put the Giants on the board.

Verdict: Decent at bat, decent result

Situation: Buster Posey, runner on third, one out:

Posey is intentionally walked.

Situation: Hunter Pence, runner on first and third, one out:



Lohse gives Pence a steady diet of sliders, eventually getting him to pull a slider on the outside corner weakly to the short stop for a double play. This killed the rally and was something that  the Giants did far too much against Lohse. He was living on the outside corner and Giants hitters kept trying to pull it only to weakly ground out to the middle infielders.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Top of the 4th:

With one out Blanco walks, Crawford singles up the middle.

Situation: Cain, runners on first and third, one out:



This is a tough position for a manager; with the pitcher up what would you do in this position? Have him swing away and risk the possibility of a double play? Sacrifice bunt to have two runners in scoring position but two outs? Try for a suicide squeeze of some sort? Pinch hit for your ace in the 4th inning?

Bruce Bochy ultimately went with the sacrifice bunt that Cain was successful in getting down. I don’t know if it was the right call and it probably wasn’t the one that I would have made. The win probability says that this move hurt the Giants chances of winning but that doesn’t take into account that this was a pitcher hitting.

It’s hard to say what would have been best move but Bochy went with the “safe” and conventional route this time.

Verdict: Questionable decision

Situation: Pagan, runners on second and third, two outs:



After the bunt, the duty to score the runs fell onto Pagan. Pagan got a few hittable pitches that he fouled off and ultimately flied out to deep centerfield. If Pagan get’s a hit Bochy looks like a genius, if Pagan makes an out everyone second guesses his bunt decision. The horrible life of a MLB Manager.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 6th:

With two outs, Crawford and Cain both hit singles finally knocking out Lohse, in comes flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal.

Situation: Pagan, runners on first and second, two outs:



Rosenthal reaches back and unleashes fastballs at 98, 98, 99, 101 and 100 to Pagan who does well to work the count but ultimately grounds out to the short stop. Another threat for the Giants extinguished.

Verdict: Decent at bat, bad result

Top of the 7th:

With one out, Sandoval rips a ball off the left field wall that only a fortunate bounce right to Matt Holiday allows him to keep it to a single. Posey follows it up with a ground ball through the left side of the infield (if only Sandoval could have gotten to second on his liner!). Mike Matheny brings in Mitchell Boggs to face Pence.

Situation: Pence, runners on first and second, one out:



Boggs comes in and gives Pence a heavy does of sliders. Pence helps him out by swinging for the fences on each one and swings right through them. Both the second on the third pitches of this at bat were pretty hittable with out two much break and were middle in. Luckily for the Cardinals Pence is in a funk and couldn’t punish the mistakes.

Verdict: Bad at bat

Situation: Belt, runners on first and second, two outs:



Belt committed the cardinal sin that will probably send him to the bench for tonight’s game, he looked at strike three with a runner in scoring position.

In the end Belt was probably wrong. The pitch sure looks like it was a strike. It was a well thrown slider that started outside and caught the outside corner as it broke back to the plate. The one that really sucks however was strike one, that pitch was probably a good four to six inches off the plate but was called a strike. That put Belt in the whole where he was on the defensive and he never recovered.

Verdict: Bad at bat

After this last threat the Giants never threatened again. In came the Cardinals closer for a two inning save and the Giants went meekly into the night. If they want to have a chance to come back in this series their at bats with runners in scoring position will have to improve.

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Giants Exec Refutes Claim Giants Never Talked About Bringing Beltran Back

One of the things that really ticked me off last off-season with the Giants was that the Giants didn't bring back Carlos Beltran. After he was signed by the Cardinals at a bargain price it hurt even worse.

To top it all off, the story was that the Giants didn't even make an offer to their big mid season acquisition who they had traded their top pitching prospect to get.


Now, John Shea of the Chronicle has gotten word from Giants VP Bobby Evans that it isn't true.

For the first time publicly, a Giants official responded to Beltran's stance that the team did not contact him or show any interest. Assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when relayed Beltran's comment that he didn't hear from the Giants, told The Chronicle he had approximately 12 discussions with Beltran's agent, Dan Lozano, including one face to face at the winter meetings. Plus text messages. 

To fill their outfield spots, the Giants traded for Kansas City's Melky Cabrera and the Mets'Angel Pagan. 

"I don't know if Lozano never conveyed that we had a dozen or so conversations," Evans said. "It's a great mystery. I'm very pleased we were able to acquire Cabrera and Pagan for the same money (that Beltran makes in 2012), but to say we didn't have conversations (with Beltran's agent) is a falsehood. It's just not true. 

"All I can speculate is that Lozano didn't convey the conversations to the player."
No offer was made to Beltran, but Evans said, "We talked in dollars and years, but ultimately the timing was not right. They wanted to wait and feel out the market, and we needed to execute business."

 It doesn't take any of the sting out of losing out on bringing back Beltran, but at least the Giants tried compared to the previous narrative that they didn't seem to care either way.

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Cardinals vs Giants NLCS Preview

The National League Championship series features a pair of teams that within the last few days were both on the brink of elimination and were fighting for their postseason lives. This round only ones teams magical season will continue.

The odds slightly favor the Giants (primarily because of home field advantage if this goes seven games) but I am expecting just about anything to happen.

Here is the statistical breakdown for each squad:

Offense

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Giants	0.269	0.327	0.397	0.315	99
Cardinals	0.271	0.338	0.421	0.329	107

Pitching

	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
Giants	97	101	101
Cardinals	97	95	95

The Cardinals are a better team than the Giants, but it is fairly close. On offense the Cardinals were the best hitting team in the NL this season while the Giants were the fourth best. On the pitching side, the teams are even in ERA- while the Cardinals have the edge in the fielding independent statistics.

On paper this is a very close match up that leans toward the Cardinals, however this is a short series and sometimes a guy like Cody Ross hits like vintage Barry Bonds over a short stretch, you never know and that is why we all love this crazy game.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Sunday, October 14, 5:00 PM: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Monday, October 15, 5:00 PM: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Wednesday, October 17, 1:00 PM: Kyle Loshe vs. Matt Cain

Thursday, October 18, 5:00 PM: Adam Wainright vs. Tim Lincecum*

Friday, October 19, 5:00 PM**: Lance Lynn vs. Madison Bumgarner

Sunday, October 21, 1:30 PM**: Chris Carpenter vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Monday, October 22, 5:00 PM**: Kyle Lohse vs. Matt Cain

*Not announced but it is what I am hoping for

**If necessary

Odds:

	Giants	Cardinals
Game 1	57%	43%
Game 2	54%	46%
Game 3	49%	51%
Game 4	39%	61%
Game 5	48%	52%
Game 6	54%	46%
Game 7	58%	42%

In each game the home team is the favorite but outside of games one, four and seven all of the match ups are fairly close to toss up games where neither team has a large advantage.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series, with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

	Giants	Cardinals
Sweep	6%	6%
In 5 games	12%	13%
in 6 games	17%	15%
in 7 game	18%	13%
Total:	53%	47%

The Giants enjoy the slight advantage in the odds right now due to the benefit of home field advantage. The longer the series goes the more it swings in the Giants favor and on paper it looks like there is a decent chance of that happening. The probability of a sweep is slim with neither team having much of an edge in the first four games.

According to my projections, we should all prepare our selves for a long series. The odds of at least six games right now are sitting at 63% and this is probably a good thing that favors the Giants with the last two games at home.

The experts at ESPN are split as to who will win but it sure seems that the Cardinals bandwagon is a bit fuller at this moment. I actually don't mind that at all and I am a bit reassured by these numbers giving the slight edge to the Giants. This plus the underdog role seems to fit into the pattern of what happened in 2010 and we all remember what happened then.

Lincecum, Zito Among Least Valuable Pitchers

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Glenn DuPaul took a look at the least valuable players this season based on what a player produced on the field compared to what the team payed him.

On this list are two of the Giants pitchers, Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum.

It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to people that have watched the Giants. Neither of these guys were all that good this season and each made over $20 million.

For National League pitchers that qualified for the ERA title, Lincecum posted the highest ERA, Zito had the 9th highest mark. In other words that was a bunch of runs surrendered for all those millions.

Luckily for the Giants having two of the highest paid number 4 and 5 starters in the league didn't kill the season as the team is getting ready to play in the NLCS. For another team that didn't quite have the financial flexibility of the Giants it could have taken down the whole season.

I am happy that this wasn't my money and I sure won't complain too much with the Giants in the playoffs.

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Giants Win, Complete Improbable Comeback

A thing of beauty

Two days ago the Giants had just a 15 percent chance of winning this series. This afternoon they became the first National League team to come back from down 0-2 in a five game series.

The big inning was the 5th where the Giants scored all 6 runs and then held on for dear life. All those times putting the tying run on base nearly gave me a heart attack and made it hard to type at times with my hands shaking uncontrollably.

It wasn't easy.

It wasn't pretty.

In the end it really doesn't matter because the Giants won.

Now us fans have a day or two to recover from the stress and nerves before the NLCS ratchets up the nerves to the next level.

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Giants odds at 28 percent: Updated NLDS Odds

After an improbable win where the Giants offense took a play right out of the 2010 Padres playbook the Giants season continues to today.

Since I last looked at the odds things have changed quite a bit, with Johnny Cueto out and Mike Leake brought into replace him. Today it is Leake vs. Barry Zito (another change) and if necessary it will be Mat Latos vs. Matt Cain tomorrow morning.

Here is everything updated with the changes since a ran the original projection and the updated odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	100%	0%
Game 2	100%	0%
Game 3	0%	100%
Game 4	49%	51%
Game 5	44%	56%

And the permutations for the last two games:

Games	Reds	Giants
3	0%	0%
4	49%	0%
5	23%	28%
Total	72%	28%

It's still a long shot for the Giants but crazier things have happened and amazingly the Giants are actually favored in the last two games (even though they would be better classified as toss ups).

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Projecting Giants vs. Reds NLDS

After missing last year the welcome pangs of nervousness have come back with the Giants back in the playoffs.

In the National League Division series the Giants face the NL Central Champion Reds. The Reds are a very good team and this series shouldn't be easy for either team.


Here is the statistical breakdown for each team:

Offense

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Giants	0.269	0.327	0.397	0.315	99
Reds	0.251	0.315	0.411	0.314	93

Pitching

	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
Giants	97	101	101
Reds	83	93	97

The Giants have the edge on offense, while the Reds have the edge in pitching. Neither edge is huge and at least based on the eyeball test it looks like they might balance themselves out.

Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and if a player has less than a full season of data it is supplemented with the ZiPS projections.
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables:

Saturday, October 6, 6:30 PM: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Sunday, October 7, 6:30 PM: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner

Tuesday, October 9, 2:30 PM: Mat Latos vs. Tim Lincecum*

Wednesday, October 10, TBD**: Homer Bailey vs. Ryan Vogelsong*

Thursday, October 11, TBD**: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain

*The Giants haven't announced who will be pitching beyond game 2 but this is my best guess.

**If necessary

Odds:

	Reds	Giants
Game 1	43%	57%
Game 2	37%	63%
Game 3	49%	51%
Game 4	44%	56%
Game 5	48%	52%

The Giants are favored in every game with games three and five coming out at just about toss up games. The big thing that drives the advantage is the Giants run scoring of all things, if you went back and told that to ourselves last year we would think we were crazy.

The Reds have the pitching advantage in every game expect for game 2, where Bumgarner has the edge on Arroyo who is the Reds worst starter of the four. In addition the last thing the Giants want to see is the Reds bullpen so getting out to a quick start will be even more important.

Here is how the different permutations turn out for the series with the odds of each team winning in a certain number of games:

Games	Reds	Giants
3	8%	19%
4	14%	24%
5	17%	19%
Total	39%	61%

The Giants starting at home really helps with the series. The chance of a sweep for the Reds is very small while the Giants have nearly a one in five chance at the sweep.

If the Giants are able to take the first two games of the series they push their odds of winning to 90 percent while a split at home makes it into a 50/50 proposition.

As reassuring these numbers are, this is still a short series where random fluctuation can cause havoc, at the very least the Giants have the benefit of starting at home to try to build a commanding lead in the series. 

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